By
Lillian West – February 4, 2007
Selecting
Somalia as the Surrogate State
Whatever
the future has in store for the current Interim Federal Government (IFG) in
Somalia, one can confidently contend that Ethiopia’s 1998-2000 victory during
the Eritrea-Ethiopia war over the controversial and yet unsettled border
demarcation dispute has left Afeworki’s shaky regime in Eritrea with several
worrisome affairs of multi-dimensional outlooks to be taken into serious
consideration.
In
reality, the hitherto TPLF-led Ethiopian government’s proven capacity to deal
with complex military and political tasks on the ground seem to be lightly
taken and undermined both by Shaabia and its subordinate insurgents including,
but not limited to, OLF, ONLF and AFD.
On the
contrary, the victories gloriously depicted both during the 1998-2000 war
between Eritrea and Ethiopia and during the December 2006 war against UIC
fundamentalists should give an awakening call and serious warning to Shaabia
and its surrogates (like OLF, ONLF and AFD) who may likely fiddle with their
day dream of waging war against the Ethiopian regime by using any and every
means available for them to destabilize Ethiopia using the out-dated colonial
liberation theory and farfetched fabricated myth as their pretext.
Lead by
Afeworki’s Shaabia officers coming from Eritrea and once horde their
foot-soldiers side by side with UIC of Somalia, what happened to the nihilist
Jihads that have come all the way from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sudan and the
Western world; plus what happened to the dreamiest OLF and ONLF; and what
happen to the diarist AFD inside Somalia is clearly a wakeup call for their
diehard remnants and stubborn leadership groups to review and realize their
idealistic notions about the Ethiopian military operation in Somalia; and make
themselves aware of the dangerous recent myths they talk about regarding the weakness of the TPLF-led Ethiopian
regime. Instead, they must free their minds from Shaabia propagated
indoctrination and brain-washing;; halt their farfetched daydreams claiming
that they can lightly and easily topple TPLF from power through hate-campaign,
civil-disobedience, public unrest, and spreading vilified news and opinions
through bought in website managers in the West.
These
days whatever becomes apparent in Somalia, one thing remains true. Once
Ethiopia’s army in Somalia exits and completely returns to its base, nothing
will be retracted from the universal praise the world has placed over
Ethiopia's intensely implemented counter attack against the Union of Islamic
Courts’ (UIC) religious hegemony in Somalia.
Actually,
the resounding success was due, mainly, to several intertwined factors
including, excellent planning, superb execution and flawless political
leadership, excellent partnership with the transitional interim government of
Somalia and the United States of America as well as good fortune and timing.
Whatever comes, at the end of the day, the result of any insurrections and violent
provocation based on idealistic judgment of weakness of Ethiopia’s TPLF-led
regime would be very similar to what has recently happened to the UIC in
Southern Somalia.
Eritrea-cum-UIC-sponsored
insurgencies
Nowadays
Ethiopia has less fear from Eritrea-cum -UIC-sponsored OLF, ONLF and AFD
insurgency characteristically conducted under the leadership and guidance of
Shaabia with the main objectives to: (1) destabilize Ethiopia’s national peace
and (2) undermine its national security. Now that the UIC, one of their latest
sponsors has disappeared from the political scene in Somalia, sinister groups
including, but not limited to, OLF, ONLF and AFD have to find another venue
where they can lend their servitude as regional pawns to Ethiopia’s known foes
who may give marginal assistance to the latter ones’ political agenda. And now
that peace and calm has returned across Southern Somalia extending from Kismayo
to Godde, the disrupted flood-related relief work run by donor communities and
the region’s anti-poverty development activities run by development agencies
may all resume as soon as the UN-Peace Keeping Forces are deployed in
Somalia.
We don’t
yet know how their leadership will take the news; but obviously, for OLF, ONLF
and AFD cohorts and for their erroneously guided leadership groups, given the
December 2006 debacles of defeat their mercenary foot-soldiers have faced while
fighting side by side with the UIC soldiers in
Somalia; intensive fight as it was jointly operated by the Ethiopian
army and the TFG of Somalia; it will take years before the incompetent OLF and
ONLF and their canon-fodder followers regroup and pose a fresh threat inside
Ethiopia or within the region at large.
The
December 2006 war episode has proved the earlier worrisome opinions released by
the Ethiopian regime, which it characterized the likely fundamentalist
insurgency incursions as ‘a present and clear danger’, requiring prompt and
appropriate response.
A farfetched
politics of hate and insurrections
Brain
washed by Afeworki’s Shaabia pushing their political agenda is driven by
hate-mongering and hatred against the Ethiopian constitution’s nationality
rights provisions, the OLF, ONLF and AFD commonly reckoned that a switch of
political allegiance would vindicate their inflexible stance against ethnic
federalism. Much to their dismay, however, nothing of that sort has happened
yet.
To the
contrary, as they did during the 1998-2000 Bademe war, the Ethiopian-Oromo and
the Ethiopian-Somalis did rally behind the federal government, and even played
an important role in the anti-UIC counteroffensive. They did so not only that
theirs is a frontline regional state that bore the brunt of the aggression by
UIC, but more importantly and purely so because they have more at stake in the
preservation of the federal state of Ethiopia than whatever ethnic affinity
they might have with the UIC of Somalia or with Somali Abo. Lacking anything of
value that is desirable, or any worldview that is transparent and credible, the
UIC had nothing to offer; except empty promises of death in a blasphemous
jihad.
Principally,
it is clear; when they feel that their rights are violated or any of their
liberties are abridged, the Oromo and the Somali people know well that they
have, inter alia, a constitutional
right to secede from Ethiopia. This is the reason why they unwaveringly serve in the Ethiopian defense forces; side by
side with their compatriots that fight a just war against an unmerited
attempt of aggression on Ethiopia.
Obviously
Shaabia, by using AFD-leadership as its long-arm, has reached some webmasters
regulating the daily Ethiopian events on their websites to disseminate
exaggerated, at times false and hateful campaigns against events taking place
in Ethiopia or events featuring Ethiopian activists. Main among such websites
attacking the status quo are two of them, mainly managed by certain Elias
Kifle, and Kinfu Assefa respectively, located in Washington DC, namely: (1)
Ethiopian Review and (2) Ethiomedia Forum. These two websites also facilitate
forums for ethnic based tribal scripts that are filthy, subjective, irrational,
and unethical to speak of.
Virtues and vice of victory versus
idiosyncrasy of insurgency
The
glorious victory scored by the Ethiopian defense forces every now and then
reminds us to recall the 1998-2000 Ethiopian armies’ victory scored at the
Bademe-Tsorena-Aiga battle fronts of the disputed Ethiopia-Eritrea border
lines.
Notwithstanding
Afeworki’s consistent rejection of negotiated settlement over the border issue
and relationship with Ethiopia, Afeworki dispatched high ranking military
officers and rank and file troops to Mogadishu in order to lead and also to
cover the flanks from the rear of the UIC army that was in a messy and dubious
military stand. Afeworki ultimately took this stand merely in revenge for his
loss during the 1998-2000 fight at the Bademe-Tsorena war fronts.
Initially
the arrival of Eritrean army officers along with mercenary soldiers
representing the dubious Ethiopian oppositions like OLF, ONLF and AFD before
the December 2006 war against UIC was among the major factors that boosted
UIC’s morale to launch its doomed ‘holy
war’ against Ethiopia; and caused the latter to intervene into Somalia. At the
time UIC leadership was confident that the better armed Afeworki’s regime and
his surrogate insurgents (OLF, ONLF and AFD) would attack Ethiopia from its
disputed border lines and help weaken its fight against UIC in Somalia but in
vain.
Obviously,
looked at from a strategic political and military maneuvering stand point
superficially, Ethiopia’s engagement in Somalia would
enable Afeworki’s regime to quickly act on his inexhaustible intimidation to
set Bademe free by force. But much to the bitter astonishment of (1) the UIC of Somalia, (2) the Shaabia leadership, and (3) the
surrogate insurgents, the December 2006 Somali war against UIC ended up in a
matter of two weeks and without drawing any significant repercussion on the
disputed Bademe-Tsorena-Aiga border lines with Eritrea. At the time, Afeworki
was not able to re-kindle once again the border war against Ethiopia probably
due to the heavy blow his army had received during the 1998-2000 war along the
Bademe-Tsorena border-lines. Especially, memories of the battle at Mount Aiga
still remain vivid in the minds of those who participated at it on either sides
of the isle.
Leave
alone the lost TV-Camera news-men in Mogadishu in December 2006, Afeworki was
not even able to save his own officers and troops that perished during the war
along-side hundreds of fundamentalists who stream-lined into UIC’s Mogadishu
eager to die for an international ‘holly war’.
From a hero to a tyrant tossing
with terrorism
Afeworki’s
self-projected image as the toughest man in the Horn has ultimately been shattered as he can neither engage his
Sawa-trained-vast army in war against Ethiopia in the open; nor able to
negotiate his way out of the thorny predicaments of his own previous
fabrications. Indeed and very truly indeed, Afeworki’s regime has become
incompetent and unable to move forward with any visible socio-economic
responsibilities within the bound of Eritrea. His fate seems to be short-lived
as he walks on the sharp edges of political knife that will ultimately tear his
shaky tyrannical regime apart.
After the
1998-2000 defeat of the war held at the Ethiopia-Eritrean yet disputed and
unmarked border lines, Afeworki has opted solely for training and arming home
grown terrorists composed of one dreadful rebel group after another in the hope
that the latter may return to Ethiopia and eventually topple the TPLF-led
Ethiopian regime; and ultimately remain loyal subordinates to his regime once
they clear their way and come to hold power.
To the
contrary Afeworki’s days in power are actually being counted; as late as on
February 2, 2007 several Eritrean opposition groups, who remain terribly
disappointed by Afeworki’s tyrannical political ploy are protesting against his
immobility in other spheres of socio-economic lives and livelihood of Eritrean
society other than war mongering and intervening in other countries affairs in
the region; they are equally saddened by the offensive acts of Afeworki’s
dictatorial regime that disrespects basic human rights of Eritrean Citizens. As
the result of Afeworki’s furious subjugation of Eritrean citizens of all walks
of life, people continue to flee to neighboring Sudan and Ethiopia, yet setting
their lives at great risk.
He who must be
obeyed
Both at
home and in Diaspora, the man once hailed as a liberator, Afeworki is nowadays
feared by overwhelming Eritrean peoples as a merciless tyrant tossing terrorism
in the region. Only he and he alone remains above the law in Eritrea as he is
considered by the common man as the man who must be obeyed by any means and at
all costs.
In the eyes
of the international community, Afeworki is literally rejected, as a leader of
a despised nation, having only handful friendly leaders to whom he can turn to
and can count on. Meanwhile, numerous protests are being conducted in the
capitals and major cities of the Western world by Eritrean opposition groups in
Diaspora.
The unthinkable
episode
Anti-Afeworki
campaigns are widely occurring through using websites, blogs and You-tubes in
which participants discuss and exchange views that expose and express political
situational status within Eritrea.
As we
know it today, at the pace Afeworki’s tyrannical regime makes its moves, it is
evident that Afeworki’s days in office seem to be counted and eventually coming
to a closure.