A Commentary on Dagmawi’s recent Message

November 2, 2006

Selam Yibeltal

“There is Never a Wrong Time to Do the Right Thing”

A saying that I saw on a billboard while driving in Washington, DC seems to fit the message that I want to bring across.

This is a short viewpoint on a commentary by Dagmawi. It specifically relates to his plan of research/ study on the Ethiopian government, the need for a non-violent civil disobedience and the current conditions as discussed below. I must say that it is indeed refreshing to have rational thinkers like Dagmawi who consistently try to bring changes to our nation for the better. My admiration to this individual is really deep-rooted.

That does not mean however, that I agree with all his arguments, suggestions and conclusions. In my opinion, particularly in the last year and half, Dagmawi has been silent on the hate politics- an instrument of the Diaspora opposition.  His fresh call to stamp out hate from the Ethiopian politics is a welcome development.

I would also like to remind Dagmawi and others that a Diaspora-led political movement is ultimately doomed to failure.  We should be able to learn from the Cuban Diaspora- a group that day and night prays for Fidel Castro to die so that they (Diaspora elements) can assume power. We should remind the Ethiopian Diaspora opposition that this is a failed strategy.

In the spirit of helping Dagmawi critically see his approaches, current beliefs and therefore, conclusions on the current Ethiopian situation I put forward the following points.

“I absolutely believe in civil-disobedience” is what Dagmawi forcefully said in his previous posting.  I am afraid that is a conclusion that requires a second thought. The strategy of civil disobedience exercised in few countries requires a thorough examination. In fact it is difficult to find a true example where this strategy has worked to the benefit of the people. The experience of former East European countries is not an experiment gone wrong and not worth emulating. This country (Ethiopia) of many ethnic groups requires that we tread our moves carefully. Our country is complex exhibiting complex issues. As Dagmawi correctly identified some of the opposition in the Diaspora is riddled with hate politics.

I would like to quote Getachew’s comment on Aiga website (which, unfortunately is tacked in one obscure corner).

“Dagmawi should seriously think about his uncritical support for civil disobedience. As a concerned Ethiopian one should seriously consider the priorities of the country at this particular time.  Is one committed to pure western-style democracy in a country that does not fulfill all the preconditions for a fully democratic governance, or is one pragmatic enough to work through the system and support the country’s quest for quick development route while at the same time continuing the struggle for a more democratic state” 

I think this is a good message worth exploring.

 “a. Revolutionary Democracy of TPLF - Anti-democratic ideology invented by Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. Regimes that follow this ideology never give up power willingly”.

            Recently, going though my archives, I came along a video in which Meles, in 1983 (EC) First EPRDF Conference spoke about Revolutionary Democracy.  In this footage he talks about ‘Abyotawi Democracy’ among other things meaning giving the public the liberty to organize itself in any format, not putting restrictions on the number of parties that should be allowed to function in the country, etc…

            The fact Lenin used the word does not mean that Meles wants to implement the concept in a similar manner.  As anyone who is familiar with the Soviet history knows, Lenin, even in his early years did not allow the national bourgeoisie that he considered as a temporary ally to be free to organize itself in any form. Lenin did not commit himself to free market, but Meles has.  Meles says he believes in individual freedom and liberal democracy, Lenin did not.  Meles allowed the free press to function until the bulk of it was completely immersed in hate politics, Lenin did not. 

            I think it is unfair to associate Meles with Lenin and paint him as a die-hard communist.  Past history, a history that is shared by almost each and everyone that participated in Ethiopian politics, should not be used to characterize current beliefs of individuals.  Otherwise, based on their past history, Berhanu Nega, Endalkachew Tsige, Berhane Mewa will be labeled communists, Shaleqa Yosef as feudalist and Hailu Shawel a Dergist.

Meles has opted for a free market-oriented economic system and a multi-party democratization process.  The first one is easy to see for every one.  The second is obviously a matter that is still controversial.  Leaning on the positive I say we should build on it and try to bring change through persuasion and not coercion (non-violent-disobedience : which frankly seems to negate itself).

It will be fair and more enlightening if we base our criticism on existing realities.

… “b. Meles Zenawi Kinship Group (Proto-dynastic) - Human organizations, though initially idealistic, tend to become autocratic (Michels Law) and then dynastic. …... Election of Meles' wife to TPLF central committee and deepening kinship ties among the top leadership of the TPLF shows that this process is underway in Ethiopia.”

These examples are neither sufficient nor necessary conditions in the present circumstances.  It is at least a bad taste that Meles is comfortable in bringing his wife to the leadership. However, this ‘kinship’ concept seems to be more of a perception than a reality.  It also becomes problematic when one considers democratic states such as the United States  are abundant with kin holding the political powerhouse. The Kennedy Family and the Bush Family are recent examples.

“c. Nomenklatura ("new class"); ….. The nomenklatura owe their villas, cars, salaries, etc to their association with the ruling party. They are an important source of support for TPLF/EPRDF style political parties the world over”.

I am afraid this is also a perception rather than reality.  I see the ‘new class’ as a sector that exploited the current political change to its advantage.  In actual fact this new class was also, in part, an instrument that spearheaded the rise of CUD from obscurity to fame in short four months.  It believed that its fortune will be much more boosted by the arrival of new leadership- leadership that wanted to privatize land and allow business to have more say. Obviously every party in every country relies on a certain section of the population and this world is abundant with people who opportunistically attach themselves to certain parties.  But this is hardly restricted to TPLF, EPRDF or any of its affiliates. One will be mistaken to arrive at broader conclusions based on these seemingly anecdotal evidences.

“d. Human Precedent regarding democratization - democratization has never come about thanks to the "goodness" of a liberation front. Only potential example might be Somaliland (maybe one or two other exceptional cases). TPLF will not be an exception”.

I would like to see why Dagmawi said TPLF will not be an exception. That said, I truly believe that comparatively speaking Ethiopia is more democratic than it has been in the last 60 years (at least). I do not think that this will be challenged by rational minds.  It is also true that much could have been done to make the system more democratic.  Meles and his government share the blame.  So do the individuals and parties that wanted it all in their first attempt.  In fact they should take the greater share of the responsibility in spoiling the May election for they never hide their intention to bring Meles to a trial for corruption, murder and treason charges.  That was to take place after Kinijt took the power apparatus.  Then, who in his right mind, even if it believes that is has lost the election, will let power go out of its hand under this circumstance?

Why is it also so hard for our intellectuals and politicians to acknowledge the sacrifices paid by TPLF/EPRDF in their long struggle to get rid of the most heinous regime in our recorded history- the Derg? Why is it scary for some of us to admit that Ethiopia has dramatically improved in its infrastructure development after EPRDF took power?  Which one is more pro-democracy and pro-development move - a pat on the back for a job well done or constant cursing and innuendo?  How is it possible to influence the Diaspora vocal elements to be positive in their thinking and see the glass half full?  These are questions worth investigating in the future.

“e. Power addiction - How does 15 years of crack cocaine use affect the brain of a person? How does 15 years use of immense power affect the brain of Meles Zenawi? Many examples of politicians becoming addicted to power and the negative consequences of this. Symptoms of addiction even in admired people like Indira Gandhi. Lab rat experiments.”

I agree with Dagmawi on this point.  This was the time for Meles to relinquish his party leadership and elect a new leader.  The Party should have been bold enough to submit other names for leadership.  This has been a source of disappointment for me.  If the party does not elect a new leader in its next election, I am afraid the power addiction theory that Dagmawi mentioned will be proven true in the case of Meles.

I like his Nash equilibrium strategy. Things must change, people have to accommodate change in order to move forward for a possible positive outcome.  The opposition has to make a change in its approach, the government should change its positions in order to accommodate these changes in order to move ahead.  I think an element of this is going on in regards to the opposition parties and the ruling party in Ethiopia.

Both are finding out that the cost of not changing is damaging to both of them.  The only body that has made itself irrelevant in this game is the Diaspora opposition.  It will be a big mistake, even irresponsible to promote civil disobedience in order to accommodate these irrelevant players in this important game. The Diaspora intellectuals such as Dagmawi and others will do a great service if they opt for positively influencing the government’s move and assist the Ethiopian Diaspora to escape from the grips of the Ethiopian Diaspora opposition elements that are functioning in a mafia-like manner, especially in the United states.

I am not in the position to comment on the model that Dagmawi wants to pursue.  I would only say that the basic assumptions that he upholds about the current government and the opposition, his less emphasis on oppositions parties at home, which in my opinion are the real actors, his strong belief and promotion of civil disobedience need a second reading.  It may render his study unhelpful.

One thing I will join Dagmawi in his request is that the government must allow (if it is indeed prohibited) Berhanu’s book to be sold openly in the market. It is incumbent upon every citizen to abide by the rule of the land – the constitution.  If the constitution trashed by a government that is supposed to protect it, then it is the responsibility of every civil citizen to protect it through non-violent means.  A call to be part of this non-violent method is just and necessary.  It is necessary because only non-violent means of change agents guarantee future liberties. Reasonable people believe in non-violence not because they are nice and kind (although that is one trait) but because they know other means are inefficient and perpetuate systems of abuse and disobedience to the law.