ETHIOPIA AND ERITREA

Timing War or Warring Time

Nowadays it is fashionable to be against all types of war regardless of the rationale presented by any protagonist. No respectable and responsible person actively and openly advocates for war. Looked at from the vantage point of such moral high ground, what I am arguing for would be a non-starter. Yet in the real world, after paying lip-service to the ritualistic disavowal of war and subscribing to the morally sanctioned universal disclaimer, state and non-state actors alike engage in war; of course, each one of them claiming that their cause is morally just and legally valid.

I for one see no other option but war to overcome the current deadlock between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Even though on the surface the crisis appears to be a simple disagreement between two neighboring states over some border issue, below the surface however, the crisis encompasses deeply rooted mutually exclusive and antagonistic interests. Thus, it would be utterly naïve to understand the issue in terms of conventional border dispute. The latter is simply the tip of the iceberg of the underlying factors. Badme is analogous to Wal Wal. Despite their apparent legalistic paraphernalia of territorial quarrel, Badme and Wal Wal are signifiers of the nefarious designs of Issayas and Mussolini respectively. So the issue here is what is signified by the whole impasse.

Two opposite types of social relations and historical processes are in collision course. The two are so qualitatively dissimilar and historically opposed no amount of good will and no measure of diplomatic effort can rectify their mutual antagonism. Ethiopia and Eritrea are the living embodiments of two divergent propositions awaiting the future not only of their respective jurisdiction, but of the Horn of Africa in general. The Shabia version is centripetal in intent and top down in design. It is also reactionary and oppressive in principle. The Ethiopian vision is centrifugal in spirit and bottom-up in purpose. It is progressive and full of promise in essence. Shabia’s plan of action is not a novel proposition; it is a direct replica of AOI (Africa Orientale Italiana). After all, it was only during the fascist era that the entire Horn region, save French and British domains in Somalia, fell under a centralized rule. Issayas is desperate to reincarnate Mussolini’s grand design which had been aborted in a very short time. The only difference between AOI and Shabia’s hegemonic dream is the replacement of Rome by Asmara as the center of the Empire.

We all know after the 1998 war with Ethiopia Asmara instead of becoming the center of the planned empire has degenerated into an insignificant town. Apparently, Issayas in his well proven psychotic pomposity sees Eritrea as a mere tactical stepping stone toward his regional strategy of ruling the entire Horn region. To that end, he has short changed the people of Eritrea by turning Eritrea into a second Nakfa. As far as he is concerned, despite and irrespective of the independence and legality of the state in Eritrea, the frame of mind of a protracted armed struggle is still on. Actually, it would not be an overstatement to assert that the independence of Eritrea is an unwelcome irritant in Issayas’ mind. Thus he opted for the second best thing, like Louis XIV he declared L’Etat c’est moi. (I am the state). And then, he mobilized the entire nation to the war effort; SAWA finalized the rebirth of Nakfa.

Contrary to Shabia, the Ethiopian experience is conducted in addressing the fundamental problem that has been central in the making of modern Ethiopia. The rights and dignity of all Ethiopians regardless of their ethnic and religious affiliation is officially sanctioned and concomitant public policies are implemented. The effort has bear fruit simply because the country has not seen the specter of civil war ever since. The peoples of Ethiopia for the first time have seen each other in equal terms and acknowledged their common destiny towards a better tomorrow. All of the disgruntled social elements that are offended because they have lost support and sympathy among their proclaimed constituents by the new arrangement relocated and found solace in Asmara. Issayas has inadvertently become their political ally and de-facto master.

Issayas and his renegade acolytes will never cease from pursuing their destructive efforts. Ironically they all share the same Imperial dream of absolutism, yet they all believe that they will eventually outdo each other after they succeed in destabilizing the region. Fortunately, two things go in favor of peoples of Ethiopia in particular and the peoples of the Horn in general. The first is that the peoples are very much aware and conscious of their interests; they can clearly see that those who beat the war drums in their names are not necessarily their allies. Second, all of the villains, despite and irrespective of their disparate political guises, are supported and activated by Shabia. And this is a blessing in disguise because the extinction of Shabia is also the annihilation of the entire gamut of the forces of evil. The absence of war and the tangible material progress have convinced not only the peoples in Ethiopia but also that of the region that peace is a real possibility. While so-called sworn enemies are coming together to forge common ground throughout the world, there is no reason why the people in the Horn cannot do the same.

Finally, the whole issue becomes a matter of time. In other words, is it Ethiopia or Eritrea that can afford the cost of the waiting game before the eventual starts? Well logically speaking it would be Ethiopia because compared to Eritrea it is much stronger in terms economic performance, political stability, and social cohesion. But Shabia has abdicated its responsibility of governance and left only with that of militarism. It has literally enslaved the people and ignored all international norms and rules of conduct. As much as its actions are atrocious and inhumane, they are the price that its willing to pay to engage in the waiting game. Its full time preoccupation is none other than the pursuit of destabilizing and hurting Ethiopia. A permanent martial law and is not Ethiopia’ priority. Thus Ethiopia has to take away Shabia’s advantage in terms of time. Instead of engaging it in the waiting game, which Shabia cannot sustain in the long haul, Ethiopia has to start to put serious pressure on Issayas and let him out in the open from his dirty holes dug all across the Horn. Ethiopia can no longer wait. After all, the largest Eritrean city is in Ethiopia. Let time has come for the temporary residents of Shimalba to reclaim their permanent abode of Asmara.

Mehretab Assefa

May 06, 2007