Ethiopia in Twenty Years: A Positive Outlook
Getachew Mequanent
April 26, 2006
I would like to size this opportunity to join individuals and organizations worldwide in asking the Ethiopian government to release from prison all members of CUD and civil society. I have maintained that there was no sufficient evidence that these individuals had been engaged in any activity intended to overthrow the EPRDF government. It is true that the CUD movement was influenced by Diaspora-based former government officials and a group of old-guard reactionary intellectuals who had a deep-seated hatred towards EPRDF. It is wrong to imprison politicians elected by the Ethiopian people. Let us say to each other yekir le egziabhere (we forgive each other) and move on to engage in positive dialogue around development issues. Foreigners cannot and will not provide us with a solution.
The 20th century is a “lost century” of development for Ethiopia because of lack of competent national leadership. In a country where Emperor Tewodros built a mortar with his own bare hands 140 years ago, previous governing elites sat still doing nothing to advance the country’s development. The 21st century can be Ethiopia’s century if current and future governments (possibly a future government led by the opposition) provide good governance and policy leadership.
I am writing this piece to assess the statement made, in March 2006, by the Ethiopian Finance and Economic Development Minister Sufian Ahmed that Ethiopia would be a middle income country in 20 years (by 2025). Minister Sufian’s projection of Ethiopia’s development prospect is consistent with Jeffrey Sachs’s vision in his recent book, entitled The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time ( 2005). Professor Sachs got criticized by our own Diaspora people for praising Meles Zenawi, but his book provides many suggestions and ideas on how to eradicate global poverty. His main argument is that the present conditions of poverty could be overcome by 2025 provided that donor countries give developing countries aid large enough ($135 billion US to $195 billion US a year) to finance plans that address multiple needs ranging from school meals, medical drugs, children’s vaccination and malaria bed nets to long-term investment in infrastructure, health, agriculture, education and economic growth. Yet, as Fraser Taylor of Carleton University (Ottawa) and I indicated in our recent paper, this “big-push” approach of development does not address questions related to country-capacity to effectively utilize aid resources (what happens if corrupt politicians and bureaucrats steal the money?). Nevertheless, Professor Sacks along with the Commission for Africa (see below) should be credited for encouraging donor countries to increase their aid budgets to support the development efforts of poor countries like Ethiopia. During the 2005 G8 summit in Gleneagles, Scotland, donors agreed to allocate $25 billion of aid for Africa and $50 billion worldwide.
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi was a member of Tony Blair’s Commission for Africa. This Commission produced a report (400 pages long) which combines an in-depth historical and contemporary analysis of African development problems with skilful planning and strategy formulation. It proposed an aid package of $37.5 billion US a year (2006-2010) and the doubling of this amount after that (2010-2015). The Commission also proposed a front-loading approach whereby money is spent in a large amount up-front to finance various initiatives in economic growth, health, education, trade and infrastructure sectors. To explain the front-loading approach, if a donor country plans to give $500 million to Ethiopia over five years ($100 million per year), the Commission proposed that $250 million be given in Year 1, $100 million in Year 2 and $50 million in Year 3 and so on. I am not sure how this idea has been received by the donor community.
All this is to say that Prime Minister Meles and the top EPRDF leadership know about the development planning business. They came to power with a little more than first- and second-year university education but managed to pursue their studies through extension programs to become one of the most enlightened group of governing elites in the world. There are many people in our Diaspora communities who did not size the opportunity to get educated. They have instead continued to be engaged in unproductive politics including organizing mass demonstrations calling for a reduction of aid to Ethiopia. It is time that we start working with the people who are developing Ethiopia including politicians of the ruling and opposition parties, planners, scientists/researchers, educators, artists, leaders of civil society, private sector entrepreneurs, international organizations, etc, and those dedicated people in our own Diaspora.
I am optimistic about Minister Sufian’s projection of Ethiopia’s development prospect. Below I state examples of potential socio-economic and political development results that can be achieved in the next 20 years and also assess the opportunities and challenges of achieving them.
Rural development. In a decade, Ethiopia will have tens of thousands of extension workers trained in agriculture, health, education and social services. The implementation of a national plan is underway to open health facilities in each rural Kebele. If the current infrastructure plan is successfully implemented, each rural village will have access to all weather road within a distance of five miles. Farmers are encouraged to apply modern agricultural inputs (fertilizers, pesticides and improved crop varieties) which help to increase crop yields, although little has been done to assess their impact on the human health and environment. To give an example, soil erosion carries chemical substances from fertilizers and pesticides to water sources which, in turn, can create health risks such as cancer and heart diseases. With this said, current rural development initiatives have potential to improve the quality of life of rural people.
The resettlement program in lowland areas will reduce the population pressure on highland areas and also contributes to growth in agricultural production. The program has emphasized voluntary resettlement and the Ethiopian government has done a good job of building facilities and services before transporting people to resettlement areas. The government has also been good at building dams and, in the next 20 years, there will be small and large dams in the lowland areas that tap water to support irrigated farming in dry seasons. One shortcoming of the current resettlement program is lack of adequate studies to assess the environmental impact of intensive agriculture, such as soil erosion, deforestation and destruction of wildlife habitats. For example, most lowlands would require fallow farming (ploughing land in one year and letting it regenerate for two or three years), because the soil cannot support intensive year-to-year cultivation. I am not aware of studies that looked at issues like this. In the absence of appropriate agricultural systems, these fertile lowlands could be transformed into desert lands in two decades as the soil is eroded, forests are deleted and wildlife is driven to extinction.
The rural safety net program is an important component of rural development strategy. It has so far served to provide material (income) and psychological security for rural people who often perish to death whenever there is drought. On the other hand, this program could be transformed from its current “welfare” role to something that encourages creativity and innovation among rural population by providing incentives. Under the right circumstances - such as income earning opportunities - people should also be encouraged to save money or invest in social safety nets, instead of expecting to draw benefits from a government program. The urban idirs provide us with good lessons on how to design rural safety net programs. The United Nations World Food Program (WFP), World Bank and the Ethiopian government are also currently experimenting an insurance system for rural farmers. The idea is that the Ethiopian government would buy insurance from a private sector which can be paid out (in cash or in-kind) to farmers in case of loss of income due to crop failure and other circumstances (at this experimental stage, WFP has covered the cost of buying the insurance from the French insurance company). This approach is revolutionary and, if successful, it will be replicated by many developing nations.
If successful, the government’s rural electrification program will be a classical example of capital investment to stimulate rural economic development. Availability of electricity will help improve economic productivity by encouraging entrepreneurial activities in villages, small cities and towns. The whole business of making minor repairs such as changing light bulbs or reconnecting electrical wires will create thousands of jobs across rural Ethiopia. Rural electrification also reduces fuelwood consumption and this will enable Ethiopia to preserve the remaining pockets of natural trees and forests. The only problem is pricing. Will rural people have sufficient income to pay for electric bills and repairs? Should the market be allowed to work (fix prices) or the government create a subsidy program? The government already has a problem with its fuel subsidy program for the urban middle class and its own consumption (government-owned vehicles). The beneficiaries of this program (the bureaucrats and middle class) represent probably no more than 5% of the total population. Image the cost of a subsidy program for millions of rural households! Right now donor countries will be happy to provide direct budget support for this kind of “pro-poor” program (some donors have stopped direct budget support to the Ethiopian government following the post-election violence and I am assuming that budget support will be restored in the future). But responsible planning would require addressing long-term issues with respect to cost-effectiveness and sustainability
In 20 years time, the rural Kebeles will have evolved into strong local institutions capable of defending and promoting the interest of rural people. Current and future governments have a responsibility to devolve decision-making power to these institutions and ensure the development of their capacity to participate in political processes.
Urban development. Current road construction and electrification programs will stimulate economic development in small- and medium-size towns and cities. Gondar, Dessie, Mekele, Awasa, Bahirdar, Jimma and other cities will see increased industrial development activities. The rapid expansion of higher education institutions and training institutes will produce a workforce capable of supporting regional economic development. There are challenges, however. Rural-urban migration will continue to rise, a global trend confirmed by international organizations like the United Nations. This means that all levels of Ethiopian government will have to develop a plan to expand housing, services and facilities and to prevent the creation of urban slums by encouraging the integration of rural migrants into urban society. Measures should also be taken to prevent prostitution, the economic and sexual exploitation of children and crime.
Natural resources. The Ethiopian government has supported the building of dams that will enable Ethiopia to make use of water resources to generate electricity for domestic consumption and even export. Gas, oil and mining explorations are underway. These are examples of potential development strategies in the natural resource sector and the results will enable the country to support industrial development and earn foreign currency.
Social Development. The Ethiopian government has plagued its social development goals into the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The MDGs initiative focuses on eight main areas of development: reduction of poverty, improved access to education, reduction of child mortality, reduction of maternal mortality, gender equity, sustainable environment, improved access to health (combating HIV/AIDS and malaria) and global partnership (which means effective foreign aid management). The government has been good at using aid resources to work towards the achievement of MDGs. According to the recent performance report by Prime Minster Meles, the education coverage has reached 89%; 41% of the Kebeles will have health posts by the end of the current Ethiopian fiscal year; thirteen universities are currently under construction; 1,726 health posts have been built this year alone; there are 31 health training institutes, the list goes on. We should praise the government for all these achievements. However, the Prime Minster did not tell us how many jobs were created in the country. Ethiopians will remain poor as long as there are no income earning opportunities. The government takes full credit for creating micofinancing initiatives, entrepreneurial training and other support systems to encourage self-employment and local economic development. But the current problem of unemployment would require the creation of major initiatives in the agricultural and industrial sectors to create hundreds of thousands of jobs along with passing laws that guarantee good wages and job security.
The Ethiopian population will continue to grow, albeit at a reduced rate due to the impact of family planning programs. Population growth slows down economic development and I am sure that the government is aware of it including the need for formulating comprehensive national population policy. This policy should also include measures to support the growing number of seniors in Ethiopian society. According to the United Nations, in the next decades developing countries will see a sharp rise in the population of seniors. In countries like Ethiopia, poverty, the HIV/AIDS effect and social changes have weakened traditional safety nets that provide support for elder parents and relatives. It is time that the Ethiopian government devise a social policy that creates public safety nets (pensions, guaranteed income, etc.) for elders in Ethiopian society.
Trade. The volume of Ethiopia’s foreign trade will continue to rise as the country diversities production for exports. Primary industries (coffee, cereals, sugar, gas, oil, flowers, etc) will dominate the export sector. The government has worked hard to find alternative trade routes through Sudan, Somalia and Djibouti. I wonder how things would have been if Ethiopia had not lost the ports of Assab and Massawa. For example, Ethiopia will not have to pay hard currency to export and import tradeable goods. But the “land locked country” argument appears to have wound down, as we get used to importing and exporting goods through alternative routes. Gondar can export and import goods faster via Port Sudan than via Assab or Massawa. Dire Dawa and Harrar are closer to Djibouti and Somalia than Assab or Massawa. We should appreciate EPRDF for making investments to build infrastructures that link Ethiopia with the ports of Sudan, Djibouti and Somalia.
In 20 years time, there will be better economic integration between Ethiopia and neighboring countries. The multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multi-cultural features of Ethiopian society, coupled with good economic opportunities, will attract investment and immigration from the Horn of Africa. Eritreans will continue to return to Ethiopia and they will create a powerful Diaspora (within Ethiopia) which encourages economic integration between the two countries. In fact, in a few years there will be increased peacemaking and peacebuilding activities to reconcile Ethiopia and Eritrea. The fact is also that Eritrea will not develop without Ethiopia. Issayas Afewerki may have unpredictable political behaviour, but he is smart to realize the economic benefits of some kind of association with Ethiopia.
National Identity. Increasing trade and transnational immigration poses a threat to Ethiopian cultural and religious identity. Current and future governments must take measures to protect cultural and religious institutions. I am particularly concerned with the increasing number of politicians, journalists, civil servants and almost every educated elite developing the habit of speaking a language that mixes Amharic with English. And what about all the business names in Addis Ababa (English names written in Amharic) which have “anglicized” this city of ancient land? It will be a national shame to allow the Amharic language lose its linguistic, cultural and historical relevance at a time when other nations are trying to rediscover and revive lost languages. I wonder how many of us are aware that Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam and his government had worked hard to modernize the Amharic language by translating all the socialist ideological and planning jargon into Amharic. I regret to say that EPRDF has not done enough in this area.
Political Development. In 20 years time, Ethiopia will have a stable and open democratic system of politics. I am not sure what would happen to CUD, but there would be a strong and vibrant CUD-like (coalition-based) party. Young generation politicians like Lidetu Ayalew will emerge as powerful politicians. Other skillful politicians like Beyene Petros could rise to national leadership, if their parties are able to change their political programs by focusing on reaching out to the whole country. Clearly, the opposition parties have learned a good lesson from the 2005 election. For example, in the future, they will spend more time marketing their political programs to the Ethiopian people, instead of relying on Diaspora support and the influence of donor countries to achieve their political objectives. Had they known this logic, some opposition politicians could have been careful in how they behaved during the post-election period. What did donor ambassadors do to help current CUD leaders in prison except urging Meles Zenawi to ensure “their speedy and fair trial”?
Meles Zenawi will retire from politics soon. I praise this man for his vision and leadership since coming to power. There is no doubt that future generation historians will see him a man who laid down the foundation of Ethiopian democracy and development. Did he make many mistakes? Absolutely. Political life is full of political mistakes.
Addisu Legese, Tefera Walwa, Seyoum Mesfin and other veteran politicians like the head of the Tigray State will be lining up to replace Meles. But the EPRDF leadership also knows that the party needs to create a new image in order to attract more popular support, especially in urban areas. For this reason, the next EPRDF leader may not be chosen among veteran EPRDF politicians. I predict an Oromo leader. This is for two reasons. The first reason is already mentioned - the party needs a new image. The second reason is that these days political parties in Ethiopia find it easier to appoint Oromos to high positions in an effort to appease the political elements within the Oromo society that call for a separate Oromo statehood. I believe that the better way is to seek long-term political solutions including negotiation with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF).
To continue, in 20 years time, EPRDF will be completely transformed into a new party including perhaps changing its name to, say, the National Unity Party of Ethiopia. The 2005 election has given EPRDF leaders good lessons. One of the lessons is that they will not stay on power for ever. Another lesson is that they would need to focus on real political work. That is why these days Prime Minister Meles himself has focused on telling the results of EPRDF’s policies (see his recent performance report), instead of the usual political rhetoric. EPRDF leaders also know that they cannot rely on Tigrians, Afars, Somalis and Southern nationalities for political support, after witnessing how opposition parties were able to reach out to every corner of Ethiopia to mobilize support. In short, EPRDF will have to do hard political work to do well in a competitive politics.
I predict that, by 2025, there would be three powerful political parties contesting for power: 1) reformed EPRDF; 2) a CUD-like national party; and 3) an Oromo-based regional/ethnic party. The EPRDF and CUD-like party will be competing to solicit support from the urban middle class and rural population, while the Oromo party will take advantage of the numerical superiority of the Oromo people. The Oromos will be a champion of regional autonomy. All this is a healthy politics.
The challenge for future Ethiopian governments is to achieve the political inclusion of Ethiopia’s marginalized regions. I am referring to Somalis, Afars, Gambellas, Gumus and other ethnic areas. I very much regret that some of the areas of Eastern and South-Eastern Ethiopia are currently affected by drought and the Ethiopian media at home and abroad says little about this situation - a clear evidence of marginalization. The EPRDF government takes full credit for delivering services and supporting the development of governance capacities in these regions, but a lot remains to be done including strengthening local control of decision-making processes and management of natural resources. In fact, the question of control of natural resource will be a political issue in the future. In 10 or 20 years time, the regions of Ugaden, Gambella, Gumus and other resource-rich areas of Southern Ethiopia could be transformed into booming economic regions. The highlanders will flood these regions in search of economic opportunities. They will try to control local economies and impose their own culture on local societies. This situation will give rise to inter-ethnic tensions unless regional governments are empowered to protect the economic and cultural rights of local people.
Diaspora contributions. I always say that there has to be a realistic expectation of Diaspora contributions. Our Diaspora communities are full of intrigues and contradictions, so much that even the most descent and hardworking people are affected by this situation. But, speaking about the positive aspects, there are individuals who provide leadership to develop the Diaspora communities. On the development front, I can provide two examples. In the mid-1990s, an Ethiopian medical doctor in Toronto invited us to a meeting in her office to discuss potential initiatives for supporting development efforts in Ethiopia. I moved to Ottawa to pursue my studies, but she continued this noble work. Last year, her professional group, in partnership with a Canadian NGO, opened a project in Ethiopia intended to create surgical skills training centres in six universities. In the same year (mid-1990s), I met a wonderful Ethiopian woman in Ottawa. She and other dedicated Ethiopians were forming an organization dedicated to helping Ethiopian medical students. Today, this organization supports 72 medical students in Ethiopia. There are other examples of noble efforts organized by the people of the Ethiopian Diaspora. They will continue to inspire us and the number of Diaspora initiative for Ethiopia will multiply.
There are many ways of making contribution to Ethiopian development. For example, today Ethiopia receives a relatively larger share of the global remittance of $6.1 billion US to the Sub-Saharan Africa (figure from World Bank’s Global Development Finance: Mobilizing Finance and Managing Vulnerability, 2005). This money is used by families and relatives to buy food, shelter and cloth, start businesses and pay for children’s education. Second, the Diaspora has many qualified specialists in engineering, planning, research, medicine, agriculture, accounting/commerce, teaching, law, technology/computer programming, geology, environment, and so on, who can transfer knowledge and know-how to public and private sectors. Finally, the Diaspora can raise tens of millions of dollars each year to support development initiatives.
In conclusion, there is a lot to discuss about the development prospects of Ethiopia. Let us leave politics for politicians and talk about what we can do to support the development efforts of the Ethiopian people.
Note to Readers:
The feedback I got from readers indicates to me that the inclusion of a personal issue in the article posted here was not appropriate. Those of you who have read my previous articles would know that I liked citing my personal experiences as a way of supporting arguments. This time, however, I might not have applied this method in the appropriate context. I have asked the administrator of aigaforum.com to edit and remove the three sentences in the article that refer to a personal issue.[April 27,2006]
Getachew Mequanent
Ottawa, Canada
April 2006