Gratuitous Provocation as a Foreign Policy Tool

Teshome Abebe

March 27, 2007

Zenawi: I think the Eritrean government has come to the conclusion that they cannot live comfortably alongside a strong, united Ethiopia, under any government, and have come to the conclusion that they should try to weaken and perhaps dismantle Ethiopia to feel secure.

This was a quote attributed to the Prime Minister of Ethiopia by Andrew Simmons in an interview he conducted for Al-Jazeera and reported on March 22, 2007.

As has been reported time and again, the authorities in Asmara have been engaged in what appears to be a solemn duty for them, in creating as much discord as possible and as much disarray and conflict as they can muster to derail both the development of social and political progress in Ethiopia.

In an attempt both to assert its phantom military might and desire to be noticed by the world as a power to be reckoned with, Eritrea ignited wars with Yemen, Sudan, Djibouti and Ethiopia in quick succession after it became a country.

The authorities in Asmara have harassed and hampered the work of the United Nations’ Peace Keepers. As a result, the UN Security Council had to reduce the size of the force stationed between the borders of Ethiopia and Eritrea.  Having failed to change the behavior of the Eritrean authorities, the UN simply relented and passed more resolutions condemning the lack of cooperation by the Eritreans.

Having failed to achieve their goal of supremacy in the region, and to avenge their humiliating defeat on the battle field by the Ethiopians, the authorities in Asmara devised yet another plan to create a second front against the Ethiopian Defense  Forces—and this time through stateless Somalia. They assembled, trained, assisted, armed and joined in the war along side the jihadists and disgruntled liberation fronts to bring Ethiopia to its knees as well as force the current government out of power.  As the Eritreans saw it, this would have delivered a hammer blow to the Meles government, and that they would enjoy the status of kingmakers in Ethiopia. What happened in Somalia and to the forces of destruction assembled there is widely known and written about!

The Ethiopian government has accused Eritrea of masterminding a bombing spree as well as planning to create havoc and destruction in Addis itself. It is reported that, in an outrageous act of belligerence, the Eritreans assisted and facilitated the kidnapping of tourists and their Ethiopian guides from within the Ethiopian border and moved them into Eritrea itself. As an exclamation of this deed, the Eriteans used their own national television and allowed the kidnapping front to issue further threats both to the Ethiopian government and to would be tourists that might wish to visit the border areas in Afar state.

These acts of gratuitous provocation are no doubt calculated, and are part of a long term strategy to force the Ethiopian authorities into a response. It is also conceivable that the Eritrean government may not be alone in its evil designs against Ethiopia. To the frustration of the linear-thinking strong man in Asmara, the Ethiopian government seems to be biting its time with what amounts to be Job’s patience!

The Montagues and Capulets!

Given the Prime Minster’s ruminations in the Al-Jazeera interview, it appears that the government of Ethiopia has belatedly concluded that Eritrea has made the decision not to co-exist with a strong, prosperous and development-focused Ethiopia as its neighbor to the south. Many outside of the government had held this exact point of view regarding the relationship between the two countries. It is indeed a remarkable and candid evaluation by the prime minister of the state of affairs between the two sisterly countries. While there are numerous problems within Ethiopia itself, the country has embarked on a remarkable path of strength, prosperity and economic development that has the potential of propelling it into the future with confidence. Economic growth has been markedly positive over the past three years. Though undermined by the rise in inflation, there is the glimmering hope that per capita income is beginning to show some improvement. The development of infrastructure continues to impress, and social progress seems eminent. Despite the black eye the country suffers on the domestic political front, Ethiopia appears to look to the future with great anticipation and confidence. What is truly impressive about both the ruling party and the many opposition parties, save a couple, is that they are genuinely buoyant about the future of the country and of its potential.  What has been missing from all political parties, however, is the articulation of this buoyancy in the form of a clear vision of the future for the country that is both positive and uplifting!

Is it surprising then, to assert that given the enmity between the two regimes and the decision by at least one of them to not co-exist with the other that a head-on-confrontation is inevitable? Are the series of provocative acts by the authorities in Asmara designed to force such confrontations, or are they merely a symptom of belligerency in search of a cause?  What do the authorities in Asmara expect to gain from such acts of gratuitous provocation, and for how long are they going to maintain such acts of belligerency towards their larger neighbor? Has Ethiopia foreclosed its response strategy when the government declared that it was not going to respond to minor acts of provocation as long as that does not impede the development initiatives of the country? Are there provocative acts, short of an outright invasion by Eritrea that the government of Ethiopia would find manifestly intolerable? And finally, since Eritrea has concluded that it can not co-exist with current-day Ethiopia, what, if anything, is the point of the Algiers Agreement? And what would be accomplished through demarcation? Need anyone be reminded here that the reconciliation of the Montgues and Capulets was only possible over the dead bodies of Romeo and Juliet?  And since Ethiopia, though very patient is not about to roll over and play dead, what choices does that leave for the Eritrean authorities?

The author of this opinion piece resides in the United States, and may be reached at: fekade12003@yahoo.com