The Horn of Africa in Quagmire?

By Fitsum G.

December 20, 2006

If by now there are people in Ethiopia (or even in the Horn) who are not anxious about what is building up, both materially as well as psychologically) in the eastern border of Ethiopia, then these must be either people who hardly have any idea at all of what is going on in our world, (they are not informed or are erroneously informed), or are altogether careless, apathetic and choose to continue to live in a world of fantasies. Or even still worse, they desire very cynically the falling into chaos possibly disintegration of this country. Otherwise, it would be enough to realize what is about to happen (or is actually happening) by watching the persistent reports of various media, local and international. Besides, suffice it to know about the stand that the Ethiopian parliament just recently tried to adopt vis-à-vis this nervous volcano in the East that is threatening to engulf us all. Such tangible crisis is not very far away and that was apparently why the government sought (and received) the endorsement of the parliament as a premeditated counter measure. Hence there is obviously a lot to be alarmed about, a lot to worry about. The Horn is a complex subregion and whatever conflicts may erupt, they could easily involve too many contrasting interests. Some fear that they may even be manipulated to make it a battle ground where the economic, strategic or even sectarian interests of certain countries may be settled. It is such an outcome that we should cautiously avoid trying to exert as much influence as we could.

Ethiopia’s geographical position in the Horn of Africa coupled with its historical and cultural setting and context, (the way its peoples and its nationalities are composed), make it a complex reality that has its own vital role in the existence, stability and status quo of the entire subregion. In fact, the tens of nationalities and peoples in the country share some affinity with all of our neighbours in the Horn, without any exception. There are no parts of people living along the borders who are not some how related to the people in the other sovereign adjacent states. This state of affairs makes the situation even more complicated than otherwise, whenever a question of border demarcation arises and the relations between Ethiopia and any of the bordering nations is put under question mark. That is why Ethiopians seem to be destined to always be on the alert, watching what exactly is taking place across their borders, lest they become accomplices to some sort of violence, or be victims of hostilities, if not naked aggression. In other words, there is no way that Ethiopia might not be involved in what may take place any where across its borders. And the case of Somalia is particularly a worrying one as there in fact exists no accepted stable, sovereign state or government since 1991 saw the fall of the former dictator Siad Barre. In a way, what is taking place now is a direct consequence of the way his regime disintegrated and no one authority could fill that vacuum.

There is a certain trend of some historians who are fond of asserting that although Ethiopia may be a country reputed to have a history of ‘three thousand years of civilization’, and comfortable existence, the Ethiopia as we know it now is a relatively new reality, and hence should be taken as dating back to around a hundred and something years. It is a country largely carved by Emperor Menelik with the current borders, who some have accused of participating or partnering in a kind of expansion along with the European imperialists. The hot controversy over such issue may not have died away completely as scholars argue this way or that one, according to their socio-political background and exposure. Be that as it may, Emperor Menelik’s stature in Ethiopian history is mainly defined by his able and forward looking statesmanship in the formation of a modern Ethiopia, along with the unique attribute as the only African leader who managed to beat a European aggressor. Adowa in fact is a landmark in Ethiopian history, introducing a new image of the country, as a concrete reality in the international scene. Following that famous battle, we all know that the West began to consider Ethiopia more seriously, and proceeded to open diplomatic missions in Menelik’s capital.

Nevertheless, unfortunately, some historians say the legacy of Menelik cannot be defined as totally free of problems. All the borders of the country have not been clearly demarcated or never settled to the satisfaction of the local population on all sides. When the colonialists left Africa having planted a lot of problems, and the Organisation of African Unity was formed, among the first principles that was unanimously approved was that Africa could not get back to the past and engage itself in endless disputes and clashes, on account of re-demarcating the borders, on account of rectifying centuries old errors. Hence, it was decided that all colonial borders, (even where there might be the same clans, and at times, the same families having been cut into two), would remain the same, unchanged. Border status quo would remain, for practical purposes, and because revising them all would engage Africans in a labyrinth of disputes and violence rather than concentrate on poverty alleviation and nation building as a whole. Building up democratic societies would be a more imperative priority than keep crying over spelt milk.

Now, such principle might not have delighted certain peoples such as some of the neighbours of Ethiopia. We can easily cite the Somalis in the east who immediately after their independence launched the issue of ‘one Somalia’ or ‘Greater Somalia’ with all Somali speaking in the subregion to belong to one state. In fact, up to now, two all out wars have been fought between Ethiopia and Somalia on the same grounds, since the latter’s independence. Prime Minister Abdulrazak Shermarke of Somalia decided to invade Ethiopia to claim large parts of what is now called the Somali National Regional State inside Ethiopia, but the results were that Ethiopian soldiers neutralized the aggression. In fact, there are still people who remember vividly that the late General Aman Andom as the architect of such battle in the East and was reputedly stopped from marching on to Mogadishu by the express orders of the Emperor. Ethiopia never wanted to be viewed as a violator of international law, the monarch was presumed to have said.

A few years later, Somali nationalism was again re-instigated and appealed to by the military dictator Siad Barre who was reputed to have baptized as Somali territory all the land where a Somali camel grazed! That was in fact taken as implying that even the outskirts of Addis would be in his Somali map, and many people were amused by such ridiculous assertion. ‘Medehewoineha’ Siad Barre in fact had some faith in what he dreamt of as he had built up a formidable war machine, thanks to the lavish assistance the USSR had granted him when he cut his ties with the West and completely got absorbed in the Soviet Camp. He had declared socialism securing the confidence of Brezhnev and Somalia was filled with Soviet military bases..

However, again, despite the surprises of the initial stages against Mengistu’s forces, too much engaged in anti-guerrilla warfare in the north of Ethiopia, the Somali army had to swallow another bitter pill of defeat and return back to their original border. And the losses and destruction on both sides were tremendous.

In all instances, people continue to sustain that the relations between Ethiopians and Somalis on people to people level, have always been generally good and friendly. There have always been thousands of Somalis in Ethiopia (including in Addis) where they lived as refugees peacefully, and a strong community of Ethiopians did live in Somalia for years. The problem, it was argued, was more of the two leadership cliques who would use the border issue, the nationality issue, as a form of distraction, a form of mobilisation of one people against another, depending on what the status of their power at home might be. Whenever there was rife criticism or opposition of the government in Mogadishu, it would raise the issue of Somali nationalism and border question afresh. What is interesting is that Somalia would have the courage to claim land not only from Ethiopia, but also from Kenya and Djibouti.

Hence what we hear or see these days or months is more or less a replica of the scenarios in the sixties and seventies. For many it is a déjà vu. Only that this time the Somalia we used to know does not exist any more, (as fifteen years of chaos and factional violence without a stable government has left it to the mercy of any strongman). And in the absence of the dissection of the world as capitalist and communist, we now have what is called the spread of fundamentalism largely associated with international terrorism. And as to the leadership of the country itself, it appears that the former Siad Barre Colonel Daher Awes has the upper hand. It is him that we see continuously declaring war on the Ethiopian government and jihad against Ethiopians.

Following the resurgence and consolidation of the power of the fundamentalist forces in Mogadishu, many moderate Somalis have chosen to flee their land rather than submit to a kind of Islam that does not particularly seduce them. Being very nationalistic, Somalis are always suspicious of anything that would come from abroad, be it from other Islamic states, specially if it was from Arab countries or the West. They know that any such influence would impact on their independence and freedom. Somalis are not generally prone to subscribing to such formula. Somalis have basically been well influenced by a western type of mentality even remaining a Moslem community, and their version of Islam is rather moderate that allows for a lot of space for their personal freedom. Many say that the so called socialism declared by Siad Barre eventually failed because it brought in too much Soviet influence, and began to be incompatible with the Somali way of life, the Somali version of religion. On this or that side, Somalis seem not to be too enthusiastic about certain ideologies or even religious sects or versions. In general, their style of life would hardly submit to any form of fundamentalism or extremism.

Since the days of Barre, Somalis have not been fortunate enough to enjoy any moment of peace in their land and that was mainly a legacy of Barre’s failed political and socio-cultural policy. And this has led them to flee their land in search of refuge in neighbouring countries, in the Middle East as well as Europe and North America. Somalis are now becoming an exiled people just as are reputed to be Palestinians, Armenians, Kurds or some communities in the Balkans. They have become the victims of their recent history, beside being victims of their clan based politics and bitter clan rivalry. This is paradoxical because one would have thought that Somalis belong to the same stock, language and religion, they would constitute one solid reality. But such is not the case. They are bitterly clannish or clan conscious and there is no doubt that there exists rivalry as well as suspicion between the Hawiye, the Darod and Mujerteen as well as the Northerners (ie former British influence).

Today, the information we have shows that most of the Somali territory is under the control of a group called the Union of Islamic Courts, UIC, led by a few former officials of Siad Barre and new recruits who are reputed to have close links with Al Qaida cells and Al Itthaad al Islamiyya, both organizations suspected of undertaking attacks on Western interests wherever they find them vulnerable. The US has been reported to have put the name of the chief of the UIC on their terrorists and wanted list, linking him with the bombings of their Embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam. The ideology of UIC seems to be motivated by a certain sect/form of Islamic fundamentalism or puritanism and is now engaged in forcefully converting the whole of Somalia into such faith. To many such phenomenon is not palatable. We have had reports of video houses, cinema halls, clubs and all other western type life manifestations being prohibited and what is even more critical, the Islamist administration is campaigning against the use of chat, the much coveted mild narcotic. As much as they try to introduce a rather puritan type of Islam that leaves little space for non religious life, this has been considered by many as an open violation of their personal life and privacy. Few Somalis would see themselves in this vest, including many in the leadership of the Union itself. Apparently, the massive aid they can manage to get should be motivated on this ground: introduce a militant type of Islam and spread it all over Africa!

For the moment, such clique are reported to enjoy unreserved support of a number of friends. A recent UN report on the situation disclosed that important countries such as Iran, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan and perhaps less surprisingly, countries such as Eritrea (an arch enemy of the regime in Addis), Saudi Arabia (for apparently religious motives) and the Sudan and even Djibouti are cited among those who tangibly extended some form of support to the UIC. The planes or ships of these countries have been registered while delivering various sorts of assistance, including medicines, relief, food as well as soldiers and ammunitions! The UIC have been solidly assisted in their conquest of the entire regions of Somalia defeating the various fighting war lords and factions some of whom were allegedly receiving assistance by the USA. Today, if the UIC is showing itself a force to be reckoned with in the Horn, some say, this is also thanks to a feeling of anti-Americanism that it has managed to ignite, coupled with a feeling of Islamic solidarity against the major enemy. On the other hand, the so called Transitional Federal Government seems to be abandoned by all (even if considered legitimate) except by those who still maintain have real stake in its survival (such as Ethiopia), very suspicious of the Islamic buildup on its border. Cornered in Baidoa, and incapable of exerting any substantial influence, the TFG has repeatedly called for the international community to heed its situation and come to its rescue if Somalia was to avoid a major confrontation.

Meanwhile, former Somaliland (Puntland), the former British colony as opposed to the south, (a former Italian colony) has seized the opportunity to declare its own independence, detaching itself from Mogadishu although it did not manage to secure recognition by the international community. Some countries however do have certain contacts with it even without granting it the status of a sovereign state. What is even more serious is the news that guerrilla fighters or trainers from Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Chechnya and Pakistan have been reportedly invited in Somalia to help train Somalis faithful to the UIC so that they could penetrate in neighbouring countries and conduct their own strategic activities. Probably, they would be ordered to attack enemy positions and strongholds in side the neighbours’ territory. And this is the most dangerous part of the whole exercise, a nightmare for the relevant governments. Any one who is familiar with what is depriving sleep to US generals and leaders in Iraq and Afghanistan (or any other country for that matter, where fundamentalism and religion motivated violence is a daily occurrence), we would easily appreciate what kind of danger or risks are developing in our own backyard.

It is in this context that the recent Ethiopian government’s moves should be considered. This being so however, there are many people, specially amongst the opposition rank and file, that submit that any military involvement with the Somalis outside the legitimate borders of the country would be counterproductive in the international arena. Whatever motives that this government is presenting is not very convincing, they say, as its real agenda looks like a desire to preemptively strike enemy positions, mainly because there are opposition forces in Somalia under the umbrella of the UIC helping infiltrate trained guerrilla fighters. Followers of the OLF and ONLF and other opposition elements that have a score to settle with the EPRDF government are apparently in the list. That must be why the opposition CUDP mps under the leadership of Ato Temesgen Zewdie, and UEDF’s Professor Beyene Petros and others have been criticising and rejecting the recent ‘adjournment motion’ proposed by the ruling coalition, and reportedly aimed to tackle the hostile forces in Somalia. They assert that until they are convinced that Ethiopia’s sovereignty is tangibly threatened, violated, the parliament should not endorse such an executive-inspired motion only on the grounds of certain speculations or beliefs. Otherwise, this would make of the House a simple rubber stamp of the Executive. As the motion amounted to an official declaration of war, the consequences would be too dire for the nation, they argued. These developments they go on, should be considered seriously because so many things depend on whether Ethiopia should really engage itself in a full scale war with Somali forces or not and whether it is worth it or not.

On the one hand, there is the realization that Somalis on any side of the border are brotherly people, and any sort of fight would only amount to being ridiculous and fratricidal. Besides, in the absence of a strong government that would represent the legitimate aspirations and interests of all Somali within Somalia (the so called TFG looks fine only on paper, a toothless tiger, and the UIC appears to be more powerful and in control of much of the land with naked force) the Ethiopian government seems to have chosen the TFG, (with IGAD, AU and UN blessing, and perhaps the US in the background) as its strategic partner, and such relation may force it to be involved even in armed intervention. As things stand now, with a prompt and peaceful solution on acceptable terms getting more and more distant, there is more and more proximity to an all out war. There are no doubts that both TFG and Ethiopia would prefer negotiation to confrontation as they realize that the latter option would not benefit any side while the stand of the UIC seems to drift from such position.

This (the choice to resort to war) is taken as a critical choice by Ethiopians who are well informed about the complexities of the case and the eventual implications. That is why Ethiopians have been discussing it heatedly these past weeks. A war with Somalia is useless for both states, as wars hardly resolve problems, many argue. Havoc and destruction, suffering and sadness are the immediate and inevitable outcome. A war involving Ethiopia and Somalia is particular, specially if depicted or perceived in the terms the UIC is trying to present. It would have incalculable meanings. Economically, one cannot forget the importance of Djibouti and even Somaliland (Northern Somalia) for Ethiopia’s economy, both of which are suspected of having sympathies with their Moslem brothers.

When people consider the spectre of Ethio-Somali war, they cannot help to think of the recent clash with Eritrea. The recent Ethio-Eritrean war has been repeatedly cited as ‘the most useless war’ fought between two poor sisterly countries. The immense destruction and thousands of deaths are reported to have served nothing, if not to serve the adventurous nature of their army commanders. For sure, it was proved that Ethiopia never expected or anticipated that war. Today such eventuality cannot be repeated, both in the north as well as in the east. But the question is what is the cost of all this? Can the country sustain such expensive ventures? Could it afford to be dragged into an apparently interminable cycle of war?

It is logical that Ethiopia would never accept that a part of it be cut and submitted to another state, (as long as it can count on a central government and army that is capable of defending its sovereignty). But it will also have to be cautious enough to find out what would be the real choice of the people closely involved, not what only the ring leaders might opt to impose.

The Ethiopian Constitution (Art. 39) contains a provision which deals with the aspiration of self-determination to any nationality embraced in the Ethiopian federation. This includes the famous term ‘secession’. According to the Ethiopian side well advocated in parliament by the prime minister, whatever the UIC are proposing is already settled in Ethiopia by legal, constitutional means. There is no forceful manner in which such issue could be tackled. And no need. If armed attacks are launched (or continue to be launched) against Ethiopia, however, the pm has emphatically repeated ‘our right to defend ourselves cannot wait for the approval of any power or group of powers’. Legal and proportional means will have to be taken.

There is no question or doubt that today, the Horn of Africa is in a very dangerous and volatile situation. On the one hand, we have the situation in Darfur, the Sudan, where widespread lawlessness and violations of human rights with alleged complicity of the central government are registered. This is attracting a lot of international attention while fortunately, the situation in the South is said to be proceeding slowly to normalcy after decades of fighting and thousands of deaths. The Sudanese government insists that no UN forces would be admitted in Darfur to supervise any violations of rights, and Kofi Annan has been heard several times warning the leaders in Khartoum for accepting responsibility for whatever atrocities might be reportedly committed in Darfur. Already the so called Janjaweed militia are accused of various criminal activities. And we recall that a recent declaration from the White House in the US has described the situation in Darfur amounting to ‘genocide’, provoking the rage of Khartoum. No matter what Khartoum may say, there is enough evidence that tens of thousands have lost their life due the three year old violence and hostilities, while more than a million are reported exiled to Chad in search of some safety.

On another front, in Eritrea, the situation is one of concern as there is little dissent against the government tolerated or allowed, and all opposition forces are reported to languish in jail. After China and Cuba, Eritrea has in fact developed the notoriety of being oppressors of journalists according to a recent CPJ report. What is more, Eritrea has become notorious in assisting rebels in the Sudan and UIC in Somalia as long as, it seems, they would create some head ache for Ethiopia. The border issue with Ethiopia still remains unsettled as there are details that could not satisfy both parties. It is hence a wholly complicated and tense situation that has characterized the Horn of Africa becoming a potential time bomb that would engulf the entire region with an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. The fact that there are reportedly many other forces coming even from distant countries meddling in the affairs of Somalis and Ethiopians makes the case even more difficult to figure out and the feeble position up to now taken by any of the international organisations involved in the area has left carte blanche for whoever considers itself strong enough to go its own way defying any outside arbitration. Today, while we maintain the severity of the situation, the guns could begin to rock the entire region in no time. The Ethiopian prime minister was saying ‘it was the whether condition which has somehow hampered the military venture of the UIC. That is why any one with a sane mind is arguing for a comprehensive peaceful negotiation now and not tomorrow which could be too late. There are those who itch to shoot. A start of hostilities could take any form and intensity that is difficult to anticipate or figure out. That is why restraint should seriously be taken as a prelude to the solution rather than a rush to open fire. Certainly, on country in the Horn would be in a position to sustain a war or protracted clashes without drowning in deep quagmire. They all have had enough of these episodes even in their very recent history! Their peoples are really fed up with such man made catastrophes.