In the Camp of the vociferous Diaspora…Is the beginning the end?

The recent political development in the Ethiopian Diaspora community has caught the surprise of most Ethiopians; even those who are very oblivious about the political situation back home in Ethiopia. The characters that portray themselves as the pillars of the Diaspora politics have waged massive campaigns among their respective supporters to weight their supremacies over the other rivals; campaigns to purge the loser(s) from the arena of Diaspora Politics

It has not been long since the CUD leaders got amnesty back home, than the ardent supporters (support groups and/or chapters) in Diaspora intensified to win the hearts of their released leaders fueling the tacit but wide differences they had. The different chapters/ support groups started to lock horn categorically supported by the top leaders, group-affiliated media outlets including the cyber generals, and the innocent but fooled Diaspora majority.

The mesmerizing political flavors which were directed to the prisoners back home, suddenly transformed to a sour back-biting and accusations after their release. To make things worst, some of the ardent supporters in the cyber world (Particularly, in The Pal Talk) called the way the CUD leaders got themselves out of the prison shameful, and dangerous to the party’s very existence. The verbal attack and accusation were also intensified against the mediators.

Particularly, those seemingly phony self appointed pal-talk leaders never wanted to swallow the fact that the release of the leaders had consumed a considerable money, energy, and time of the intimidators. And above all, they belittled the Effort put by his Excellency Prof. Isaac Ephrem in convincing the adamant government to buckle to the traditional mediation and release the prisoners with full amnesty. It is known that the Ethiopian government had been unyielding to the pressure of EU and other human right groups. Yet, the professor among others surprised the world that soft mediation is more persuasive and fruitful than the arrogant and selfish measures taken by the westerners. Above all, after his rare accomplishment in the modern politics, the Professor was at one time requested to highlight Bush’s escape from the trauma in Iraq and Afghanistan. What else can prove the success of the mediators?

Coming back to my account, a spark of rumor forced the relentless but pessimist vocal supporters to turn their faces to the party they claimed to give their lives for. The gossips that the CUD leaders would come to the Diaspora for the millennium meant an opportunity to write some more pages on their embarrassing diaries. The confusing statements aired from CUD leaders about their journey through the Diaspora outlets couldn’t help but make the bad scenario in the Diaspora camp worse. The Head of the party voiced to make his journey after the Millennium, though his proximate tails made clear that they would be in USA among other places outside Ethiopia before the down of the Millennium. This gave the juvenile conspiracies in the Diaspora more strength; the Diaspora support groups, now could be called factions, started to examine their old and rusted files as ammunition to attack each other.

Of all these, the money alleged to be embezzled by one of the factions became a burning issue; an issue which was subdued for sometime due to alleged letters from the party leaders sent while they were in Prison cells. However, opportunists as merciless they are, the factions put the money fraud on the plate to disgrace each other. The incredible progress in fueling the hostility and fighting between the factions came from the leaders who were supposed to bring peace between the factions. Let Us see the developments.

Firstly, Dr. Birhanu’s speech in his old school embraced change of principles and tactics wrap with the usual accusations and self-importance. Many supporters who carefully listened the talk had got the chance to exploit the talk and associate him with Andargachew (with a famous pal talk name “kefaflachew”) group. Particularly his half-acceptance of the developments in the country (an average of 4pc, according to him) didn’t help him but put him in close scrutiny. Above all, the idea of tolerance plus the tacitly implied collective leadership forwarded in the talk had been taken as a big punch on the teeth to the already hateful and rough Diaspora “gangsters”.

This development, I presume, was used by Shaleqa group, a fierce rival to Andargachew/ Berhanu mewa group in the control of the Diaspor politics, as window of opportunity to put Dr. Berhanu in the category of the “soft” group lead by Birhanu Mewa. Exploiting the Opportunity further, the Shaleqa group warned Eng. Hailu back home that there was a conspiracy, reaching to the level of coup d'état, being baked in DC.

Secondly, the warm welcome the CUD delegation minus the party’s leader got on their arrivalin DC was taken by Shaleqa group as a sour defeat. This is partly due to the fact that Dr. Birhanu was one of the members of the delegation. Losing a battle doesn’t mean losing a war, was so the thinking in the group that Shaleqa made one more significant move heating the relentless struggle for domination. He exploited the trust he has in the heart of Eng. Hailu and perniciously persuade him to avail himself in DC, or else to be subjugated by the conspirators from far away. Listening to his close ally, Eng. Hailu secretly booked his travel to the USA. In mean time, the Shaleqa groups polished their swords to score a win in the coming battle. His group announced the time Eng. Hailu would arrive in DC and called all supporters to welcome him in person.

In line with this, using the group affiliated media he requested the already DC-settled delegation to welcome the arriving leader. Outshined by the Shaleqa trap, the vice-head of the Party Bertukan Mideksa (“Fetenech”) fallen to the jubilant hunter. In an Immediate interview, she implied that the delegation isn’t willing to welcome the leader, which is out of the schedule and the consent they had imprinted in Addis. This was propagated by the Shaleqa group as an official message that the delegation is not any more under the control of Eng. Hailu. Panicky all vocal, and the self-appointed “more-important than the other” supporters started to align themselves to one of the factions. This Put the Shaleqa group on equal level with their rival in terms of the retaliation one was doing on the other group. He thought he had publicized the conspirators and the power houses backing the conspirators.

Thirdly, seemingly a fund raising meeting called by the delegation in an avenue chosen by the Birhanu mewa group was opened. In the meeting, Dr. Birhanu made a second surge implicitly attacking the attitude of some of the Uncompromising leaders. He stressed now and then that politics is all about flexibility. Thrilled by the endless ovation and applause, he labeled the uncompromising politics as a “fara” politics; meaning a naïve politics. The meeting hit the cleverly designed target and the organizers were able to collect more than a hundred thousand US dollar. Now the Shaleqa group was aware that the other group was making a fast move sweeping out all the money in and around DC.

So, unsurprisingly for those who knew about the power struggle between the factions, the shalqa group lebeled the meeting as illegal, without the knowledge of the leader of the party. And unexpectedly, Eng. Hailu appeared on one of the radios in DC and said that there had been an embryonic disciplinary problem among the top leaders of the party and harshly accused his subordinate who denied him about the clandestine meeting. This put the Shaleqa group to bounce back and equalize in terms of retaliation again in the fast degenerating Diaspora Politics.

Now that the fall out become clearly visible with out a shadow of uncertainty to all the party’s supporters, the factions, having successfully dividing the top leaders, started to scramble the remaining bodies who have a say on who must lead the party. The frequent and at a time confusing interviews in pal talk and by the radios conglomerated in DC with party members inside- and outside-Ethiopia are clear evidence.

Putting all the pivotal developments so far, I would like to suggest the developments we may witness in the coming weeks, if not in the coming days and its significance in the politics back home. There are two clear possibilities. Let me start with the most likely one.

Probably, if the rumored round table meeting between the divided leaders comes out successful it only seals, to the delight of the majority of their supporters in Diaspora and back home, the temporary ideology gaps budding among the party’s leaders. It will be extremely difficult for the leaders to put trust and dependability among each other. This may result in the dissolution of all the support groups in Diaspora; lose-lose to the factions, which are the source of the mess. The dissolution will definitely help the Diaspora to believe that the politics back home can’t effectively be gyrated by using a remote control. The CUD as a party will come out of the recycle bin it has got into and turns its face to its genuine supporters back home.

The less unlikely outcome is that if the split is hard to reconcile, then the famous Darwin theory that the fittest will survive comes in to play. However, so close is the potential between the two factions to damage each other that the healthy run of the two groups in parallel under the name of support group will be in question. This again may lead to the birth of some unhappy offspring which will dare to eat their mothers when an appropriate time comes as their mothers did to their common grand mother. This will end the negative impact of the Diaspora in the emerging democracy back home. Sadly, however, it puts an end to the party that has been withering after the time of the election back home. Who wants to see the CUD with immense potential to contribute in Ethiopian politics melted down and disappear in the fog?

When the power of love out shadowed by the love of power, the spirit of the heart kneels down to the wickedness of the Mind…. May God give us all the strength!

B Ted

Sep 20,2007