In the shadow of new expectations on its regional role, Ethiopia looks inward

Mulugeta Alemu

9 February 2008

Kenya’s sudden decent into a nightmarish political mayhem and Chad’s surreal and astonishing fight for regime survival pose questions on how domestic developments in surrounding countries affect Ethiopia, one of the continent’s oldest and most populous state which, in the past, had suffered myriads of crisis of its own. Protracted conflicts in Sudan and Somalia did negatively impacted Ethiopia. Conflicts in Gambella national regional state in 2003 and the most recent terrorism by ONLF within the Somalia national regional state were in one way or another related to developments across Ethiopia’s international border.

Foreign policy reforms were introduced by EPRDF, which improved Ethiopia’s relations with its neighbouring countries. But the 1998-2000 war with Eritrea introduced by far the most significant setback. Not only had the war pitted Ethiopia against a natural partner, it has resulted a ‘no war, no peace’ post-conflict scenario in which Eritrea actively worked to destabilise Ethiopia by assuming the role of regional pariah and spoiler. Though Ethiopia has handled Eritrea’s provocations deftly, the latter’s actions severely undermined regional cooperation and stability.

Many observers comment that despite these challenges, Ethiopia maintains the only plausible regional and continental promise for leadership. It is an active and prominent play in the AU whose headquarters it hosts. It is a leading member of IGAD and helps run some its important programs. It not only confounded Horn of Africa’s sub-regional standby brigade (EASBRIG), but host its headquarters and provide it with much needed capacity development assistance. Ethiopia is also slotted to provide around 5,000 troops for the UN-AU hybrid peacekeeping force in Darfur. Several thousands of its troops are helping the transitional government of Somalia run a government after several years of political crisis and state failure in that country. It cooperates with the United States and other western countries in fighting terrorism.

The US think-tank, the Council on Foreign Relations recently run a couple of stories on the unfolding ‘continental leadership vacuum’ in Africa as countries such as South Africa and Nigeria start looking inwards. Nigerian president Umaru Yar'Adua replaced the internationally-known and ambitious Olusegun Obasanjo who was playing a prominent role in African platforms. South Africa’s intuitively rich and pan-Africanist leader Tabo Mbeki is set to take exit from his leadership role in 2009. The Council predicated that Ethiopia, unlike mid-sized nations such as Ghana and Tanzania, can play a more nuanced and influential role in Africa.

Though such expectations are widely shared, it is profoundly remarkable how Ethiopian government reacts to them. Officials from Ethiopia are extremely aware of their country’s ‘true’ challenges of survival and prosperity. EPRDF’s foreign policy is the most inward in the country’s diplomatic history in that it identifies poverty as Ethiopia’s most important challenge and that addressing it should be not only the principal goal of its domestic programs, but also its foreign policy.

The government is intensely reorienting the Foreign Service establishment with the view to enhancing the latter’s role for the promotion of investment, technical assistance, and tourism. Diplomacy of prestige is debunked and increased attention is given to diplomatic diplomacy where Ethiopian diplomatic missions are expected to spend most of their time and resource recruiting investors; solicit assistance for domestic development and encourage promoting the image of the country.

Ethiopia is growing by an average of 9 percent annually which is by far the largest figure in the region. Major joint economic and infrastructure development projected have been undertaken with neighbouring countries. Ethiopia is expected to export electricity to Kenya, Sudan and Djibouti by 2010. It has enacted laws encouraging Djiboutian citizens to have myriads of incentives to work and invest in Ethiopia. There is now an amazing array of trade and other economic relationship which are furthering economic integration between the two countries. The government holds that its foreign policy should primarily be targeted to address Ethiopia’s challenge from within. Only then, its officials contend, can Ethiopia live up to the emerging expectations on its regional and continental role.