We started this series by pointing out how the lack of political stability and continuity was at the root of Ethiopia’s lack of progress. This is the malady of many African nations too. In a recent radio interview, Nigerian Nobel Laureate, Wole Soyinka, was telling of Asian graduates returning home from Europe and America. They would be invited to Investors Conferences and asked: ‘Who among you wants to be the next Bill Gates?’
“As the hands go up, immediately the investment dollars follow.” He said. “But when the same question is put to African graduates. They simply say, ‘Ok, next question?’ He concluded: “These graduates are not stupid. They know the lack of stable political infrastructures in Africa.” Mr. Soyinka is right. Many may not even return home.
Without a stable political infrastructure and continuity there can be no bright future for Ethiopia and for many African nations. The crucial duty of politicians is to create that stable political infrastructure. That stable political infrastructure can then create stable institutions which in turn create stable economic infrastructures. When the political infrastructure lacks stability, most economic infrastructures are like cardboard boxes hastily stacked up, waiting to tumble down with the collapse of the government.
If we look at the last election in Ethiopia there was economic activity and ‘opulence’ in Addis Ababa and several cities. What is more, “isn’t even a devil you know better than an angel that you don’t?” So, by all reasonable calculations the incumbent EPRDF had no reason to fear CUD/Kinijit, and every reason to feel confident to win by a landslide.
The election and its aftermath, however, proved the shakiness and instability of Ethiopian political infrastructure. Prof. Clapham has asked a valid question: why did the EPRDF fail to turn its success into an electoral support. (1) Some said it was due to the alienation of some ‘Amhara Chauvinists’ who voted for CUD. That may have some truth, but is that the whole truth? Could there have been other factors besides? We will look into those.
Professor Clapham has also observed: “For several years, it has been clear that urban dwellers have been deeply alienated from the regime. Despite the development in Addis Ababa, and a small number of towns that have benefited from the new political order (notably Mekelle, but also Bahr Dar and Awassa), most Ethiopian towns remain stagnant backwaters, and government policy has ignored them. Most rural areas, so far as I can judge, have been passive towards the government at best, resentful at worst.” (2)
In our next and final article in this series we will explore and attempt to look into these fundamental issues by going back to the remaining two models: Tanzania and Botswana. We showed the achievements of these African nations, but we will examine them again to see how Ethiopia may learn and benefit form their examples.
Stay tuned…
G. E. Gorfu
1) http://www.african.cam.ac.uk/people/registry/subjectlist/clapham.html
2) http://www.waltainfo.com/Analysis/2005/Dec/8116.htm