H.R. 2003 and Politics as a Zero-Sum Game: CUD’S True Colors

Molla Reda

Most supporters of CUD are celebrating the passage of H.R. 2003 a fine piece of legislation that will miraculously bring about democratic change in Ethiopia! The truth is this: a few millions dollars have never bought democracy anywhere and will never buy democracy in Ethiopia. If democracy was just like any other good in the market, Iraq and Afghanistan would be the most liberal democracies in the world today. Democracy is not like a high-tech equipment to be bought in the U.S. and transplanted in Ethiopia. Democracy can only flourish if the various stakeholders in Ethiopia agree on the presence of an overriding national interest and share the same commitment to achieving it. It seems to me that CUD and its supporters do not have any notion of national interest other than, of course, the incredibly stupid assumption that what is good for a few thousand vocal noise-makers within CUD is good for Ethiopia as a whole.

To those who are dancing to the tune of Donald Payne and Chris Smith, anything that has the potential to weaken the Ethiopian government is, by definition, good for them. The government’s loss is their gain. It’s this kind of intellectually bankrupt thinking that is guaranteed to lead Ethiopia into a less democratic path than it has embarked up on thus far. You don’t have to be a political historian to see that virtually all historical attempts, through pressure tactics, aimed at bringing about democratic changes in the target countries have miserably failed. It’s not hard to see why. They failed because they are based on the fundamentally flawed assumption that all of poor and allegedly undemocratic countries need a disincentive, rather than an incentive, to enact democratic changes.

The U.S. continues to squeeze Cuba, which, by the way is just 90 miles off the coast of Florida, economically and politically. What has the result been? Castro has outlived ten U.S. presidents. The Communist party’s grip on power is stronger than ever and the U.S. is no where near achieving its goal of democratizing Cuba. But we also know that America’s irrational polic toward Cuba has been the by-product of lobbying by Cuban Americans residing in such electorally critical states as Florida. Consequently, America’s foreign policy toward Cuba continues to be held hostage by few but electorally significant group of mostly American citizens.

Even though I alluded to Cuba as an example of a failed strategy for democratization, I am unwilling to engage in the current discourse about the fate of Ethiopia on the terms and parameters of debate set by extremists and their mercenary allies. I was very happy when opposition parties won a number of seats in Parliament in the 2005 elections, not because I agreed with the agenda that they espoused—I did not—but because, for the first time in recent memory, a government in Ethiopia followed the letter and the spirit of the Constitution to hold a generally free and fair election. To me, the process matters as much as the outcome. Only through procedural legitimacy can we go beyond individuals and political personalities. To achieve procedural legitimacy, however, you need institutions and these institutions are growing, albeit slowly, and will continue to grow. It is only solid democratic institutions, not individuals—important as they are—that can guarantee that the changes we achieve are protected.

It is, however, unforgivable that CUD and its rabid supporters see Ethiopia’s democratic experiment as a game that they and only they have to win, whatever the cost. Their loss is EPRDF’s gain and their gain is EPRDF’s loss. According to CUD leaders, and their extreme supporters, politics is a zero sum game and you can never have anything in common with your opponents. This infantile and stupid attitude is what seems to motivate most CUD leaders and their supporters into jumping into bed with any element that is opposed to the Ethiopian government, including terrorist groups with an apocalyptic world view.

It has now become very clear that CUD’s hunger for power is much stronger than its desire for a democratic Ethiopia. They are so desperate to hold power they would do anything to get it—except the right thing, of course. The right thing would be for them to engage in a dialogue inside Ethiopia, present their ideas, and shed their condescending and we-know-what-is-best-for-Ethiopia attitude. Being concerned about the direction of the country under the EPRDF is one thing. Dwelling on the latter’s mistakes and ignoring the positive changes it has brought about so far for the express purpose of gaining approval from second-rate politicians in American and Europe is unconscionable.

If one is interested in a multiple-party democracy and an all-inclusive political climate, then simple logic dictates that the largest political party in Ethiopia—EPRDF—be part of Ethiopia’s future. By insisting on eliminating the most dominant party in Ethiopian politics for the last decade from the scene so that they could achieve an unbridled power, CUD leaders are simply being hypocritical. If you want multiple-party elections, you have to work and compete with EPRDF because, like it or not, it is the biggest party in the country and unless you come to your senses sooner rather than later, it will continue to be so. Meanwhile, you—leaders and supporters of CUD—will spend the rest of your life begging mercenaries in the U.S. Congress to do your work through intimidation and threats of sanctions.

If the purpose of all the loud noise that opposition politicians and their supporters make in North America is to bring about democratic change in Ethiopia, they should do it inside the country and join the other opposition politicians that are engaged in critical discussions with the government in different forums, not least the Parliament. But of course, that is anathema to CUD and its supporters because they would prefer to achieve their vision of democratic Ethiopia through a short-cut: by sanctions and other pressure tactics.

Perhaps, it may have to do with the fact that a lot of ex-Dergue officials have not come to terms with the fact that a bunch of guerrilla fighters from the jungle could transform themselves into modern day democrats and lead Ethiopia on the world stage. They are willing to take the sort of measures that Mengistu Hailemariam was so enamored of, intimidation being the most glaring example of all. Because they don’t currently have the commandos, the paramilitary forces, the tanks and the secret police under their command to intimidate the Ethiopian people, they have to hire mercenaries. Except in this case the mercenaries happen to be members of the U.S. Congress with so much power to do so much harm.

What is it that CUD has against the Ethiopian people? In truly authoritarian states, the space for political dialogue and multiple-party politics is completely absent. One has to look no further than our neighbor to the North. If you don’t create the political space that is critical for multiple parties to emerge and contest elections, then the topic of rigged elections becomes irrelevant because there would not be elections in the first place. I am not suggesting that we have to settle for the least common denominator in our lives. Simply because Eritrea has not had any elections and has not even ratified its constitution but we have had three democratic elections, we should not rest on our laurels. Look, however, at the subject of discussion on Eritrea. It’s not about human rights and the lack of free and fair elections. It is always about the border conflict with Ethiopia and how Wedi Afom—Issayas Afeworki—rides shotgun in a white BMW without bodyguards and fancy motorcades. Some commentators even look at Eritrea’s arrogance in refusing external assistance as evidence that it wants to be self-reliant, ridiculous as that is for a nation teetering on the edge of total economic meltdown.

Certainly, democracy is not just about elections alone. Anyone can have elections. It’s about the process. There has to be procedural legitimacy in order for elections to be valid. Even though the 2005 election was characterized by come irregularities, by and large, it was the most competitive in Ethiopia’s history. Opposition parties won hundreds of seats for Parliament in contrast to the dozen or so seats they had in the previous term. That was not enough. For CUD and its supporters, the desire to fulfill their long-standing dream to hold power was worth the blood-shed and the loss of lives and property that ensued following the misbegotten attempt at engineering the election results to their liking.

Democratization is not an event; it is a process. As such, it takes time to put the necessary institutions and political machinery that are necessary to sustain and consolidate democratic gains. What, in my view, CUD supporters seem to be too myopic to see is that democracy is not a destination or an event to get to through pressure tactic. It’s a long and arduous task that requires the collective goodwill of all Ethiopians in conjunction with the current government. Like it or not, the EPRDF-led government is here to stay and will continue to be an integral part of Ethiopia’s future.

Only cowards hire mercenaries. True patriots pay the necessary sacrifice for their country. And please don’t tell me that the time CUD leaders spent in jail was a sacrifice because it was not. Sacrifice is when you do something for someone else and not when you are caught using others to do your dirty tricks. The likes of Lidetu Ayalew and Dr. Beyene Petros are also opposition politicians. I don’t agree with them most of the time—they simply oppose for the sake of opposing, and some times, they tend to lose sight of the fact that there can be loyal opposition. But I applaud their courage to stay in Ethiopia and do their job. They certainly do not parade themselves before mercenaries begging them to bring about change in Ethiopia. They fight for it and they do it in the only way that is enshrined in the supreme law of our Ethiopia: the Federal Constitution. They don’t lobby members of Congerss to do the single most destructive thing for a nascent democracy in Ethiopia, which is to nip it in the bud.

Moreover, most of those who are lobbying for sanctions against Ethiopia have never been to Ethiopia in such a long time that their last memory seems to be that of Mengistu Hailemariam making a speech at the so-called Revolution Square about anti-revolution forces. Get a grip on life; Ethiopia has changed for the better. Get out of your self-inflicted intellectual exile and try to do good for Ethiopia. Your short-term hunger for power and the length to which you will go to achieve that singular objective are inimical to Ethiopia’s national interest, if you still believe that there is such a thing as national interest. Unless kept in check, your craving for power will drive you into alliance with anyone opposed to the current government in Ethiopia, including terrorists and their chief sponsor, especially Eritrea.

To save Ethiopia by dismantling Ethiopia is a dangerous strategy. Why can’t CUD leaders and their supporters undertake their struggle in Ethiopia, along side with their supporters rather than hire mercenaries to achieve the outcome that democratic dialogue among the different stakeholders should achieve? What are they afraid of? Are they afraid that the support they claim to have among ordinary Ethiopians is purely imaginary and that it is better to stick to the script and stay in Washington where they can wine and dine with gullible Congressmen, who may be motivated more by the need to pass bills than achieve anything of substance? Perhaps, but that is not the wisest move. But gain, nobody has ever said that CUD leaders are the sharpest tools in the drawer. It’s always better for Hailu Shawel & co. to get accolades form Donald Payne and Anna Gomez than do what is necessary to promote democracy in Ethiopia—an outcome in which they seem to have only marginal interest for they only use the rhetoric of democracy as a means to an end, the end being personal power.

Hailu Shawel and his supporters seem to be interested in democracy so long as the results are preordained to bring them to power. For such self-declared intellectuals, to entertain the idea of a pre-determined election outcome is a pathetically stupid idea. Making small sacrifices, even if that means putting aside one’s massive appetite for power, for the sake of consolidating democratic gains and building on those gains further in the future, is too big for them to undertake. How could we otherwise understand their decision to boycott parliament in defiance of the millions of people that voted for them? It is sickening. It is not leadership. It would be easy to just say CUD leaders got their comeuppance for their defiance when they were in jail. But that is absurdly shallow and I would not go that route. If every time a party loses an election, it boycotts Parliament and decides to reverse the results by any means necessary, can you imagine the chaos and the disorder that would ensue?

Right after being pardoned and freed from prison, well-intentioned leaders with great strategic vision for the future of Ethiopia would have made an effort to initiate dialogue with the ruling party on how to address lingering issues and leave behind the tragic events following the election for the sake of a fresh start for our country. The entire CUD leadership did, instead, bolt out of the country in an effort to discredit Ethiopia and its government, thereby confirming our worst fear that CUD leaders were never ready for governing Ethiopia in the first place. CUD leaders managed to stir up political controversies to enhance their international standing by painting Ethiopian leaders as oppressors.

When it came to actually governing the country and producing policies, they showed how bankrupt they had all along been. Their unwillingness and indeed inability to come up with anything by way of policy blueprints for doing business their way is the political equivalent of erectile dysfunction. Sure, they wanted to govern. They just couldn’t. My view is that I don’t think CUD and its supporters honestly thought the government would conduct a free and fair election. When the government called their bluff, they did what anyone in their position would do. They simply panicked and did the next best thing: stir up violence and controversy in the hope that they would be held to much lower standards in the event that the government collapsed and they were to assume power. Alas, things turned out differently.

The entire CUD leadership has zero positive vision for Ethiopia. Thus far, all we have gotten from these people is a series of statements condemning the EPRDF-led government. What are your ideas for bringing more democracy to Ethiopia, if you have any at all? How do you propose we as Ethiopians get out of the poverty trap in which we have been wallowing for decades? The politics of hate, vendetta and infantile obsession with power are dangerous recipes for disaster and we should not let CUD and its extremist supporters in the Diaspora to hold the fate of our nation hostage to their stupid craving for unbridled power.