The Speculative Adventurism of

Some Sudanese Analysts

By Prof. Kinfe Abraham

Feb 07,2007

Why Ethiopia Decided to Wage its Campaign of Self-defense

When Ethiopia decided to wage its campaign of self-defense against the Jahadists of Mogadishu who are also alluded to as the Union of Sharia Courts (UIC), it had five cardinal objectives to pursue. The motivation for its first objective was that the Jahadists posed a real and present threat to its sovereignty by declaring war on it. Further, they had erroneously tried to project Ethiopia as an ‘island of Christianity’ which is hostile to its Muslim neighbors.

Nevertheless, contrary to the above postulation, the truth is that Ethiopia was the first country to embrace Islam and host Muslim refugees more than fourteen centuries ago. Besides, there is overwhelming evidence which testifies to the fact that Ethiopia is at present a democratic and secular federal state which accords equality to all religions. What is more, Christians, Muslims and adherents of other belief systems have cohabited in it peacefully and fraternally for centuries.

A second factor which motivated Ethiopia to embark on its legitimate campaign of self-defense is that the UIC as underscored by its repeated pronouncements had articulated that it was determined to expand its brand of extremist Islam not only in Somalia but also Ethiopia and eventually the Horn of Africa at large.    

Third, according to the report of the arms monitoring group of the United Nations, eight countries were actively supporting the UIC politically, morally and militarily to pursue its vicious objective of destabilizing Ethiopia in particular and the Horn of Africa at large. Naturally, Ethiopia was unhappy about the connivance and vicious plan of the accomplices of the UIC like Eritrea which were hell-bent on derailing its democratic and development goals which require peace and stability for their realization. Paradoxically enough, most of the accomplices of the UIC are countries that have good bilateral relations with Ethiopia as well as countries that have been victims of international terrorism of the past and likely targets of the future. Hence, it boggles the mind as to why the alleged countries were supportive of the UIC and hostile towards Ethiopia.

Fourth, Ethiopia assumed the responsibility of the campaign of self-defense in order to rescue the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia which was also one of the primary targets of the UIC. In fact, the UIC had began to encircle the headquarters of the TFG at Baidoa and its environs.

Further, by launching its counteroffensive Ethiopia had assumed not only the responsibility of its own self-defense, but also the duty of protecting the TFG which was vulnerable to external attacks. As a rule, it was the International Community which had already extended its recognition to the TFG that should have assumed this task. Hence, Ethiopia deserves the praise and admiration of the World Community for shouldering the burden and obligation of all.

Fifth, Ethiopia also had a moral obligation to assist the TFG during its time of great difficulty as it had entered a general understanding of joint-defense with it. The request of the TFG for Ethiopian support was, therefore, an additional compelling reason which made Ethiopia take prompt action. 

In pursuing the above responsibilities, the Ethiopian plan was to realize the following three goals. One was ensuring its national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Its second goal was to contribute towards the stability of its friendly neighbors and the Horn of Africa at large which has been embattled by various inter- and intra- state conflicts over the last few decades.

As noted above, a third and critical consideration which Ethiopia took stock off before embarking on its military campaign against the Jahadists was the desire to assist the transitional process in Somalia which resulted in the establishment of the TFG after two years of painstaking negotiations in Kenya. Naturally, all friends of Somalia were also anxious to make this experiment work and find a final peaceful settlement to the crisis in Somalia which had resulted in the prolonged suffering and agony of its people for more than fifteen years. Ethiopia was also fully cognizant that the TFG was the first legally constituted and internationally recognized government which deserved to be assisted.

The Ethiopian Intentions vs. Some Distortions

Despite the clear and openly declared intention of Ethiopia which is one of ensuring peace and stability in the Horn of Africa, some misguided and malicious Sudanese analysts who are determined to convey a distorted picture of Ethiopia’s noble objectives have chosen to misrepresent its intentions and the objective reality on the ground. The truth is, however, that the UIC posed a real and present danger to Ethiopia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Besides, it has been trying to hoodwink the international public, particularly Ethiopia’s Muslim and Arab neighbors by projecting Ethiopia as an island of Christianity, as if adherents of other religions such as Muslims do not exist.

Nevertheless, the above view is a fossilized and anachronistic one. Such views are held by a few extremist Islamists like the UIC and its sympathizers. People with such prejudiced views do not want to recognize Ethiopia as a secular, multi-national and multi-religious country where freedom of worship is guaranteed by its new federal and democratic constitution.

Contrary to the above, the reality is that Ethiopia is a country where adherents of Christianity, Islam and other religions have cohabited in harmony and peace for decades, if not centuries. This is particularly true since 1991 when the new federal democratic constitution was promulgated to ensure the equality of nations and nationalities, gender, choice of religions and freedom of worship, human rights etc.

The Speculative Views of Some Sudanese Analysts

Among the Sudanese analysts who have deliberately chosen to drive a wedge into the cordial and fraternal relationship of Ethiopia and the Sudan is Abdalkeni Ahmed Idris who wrote an article in the Sudanese newspaper Alraii Alalem.

The article by Abdalkeni Ahmed Idris which was written under the title “Ethiopia Victorious in Somalia: Is the Sudan the Next Target?”  This outrageous article which is not based on sound facts further speculates about the emergence of Ethiopia as a prominent country in the international arena as bulwark against international terrorism. Further, he refers to what implications this might have on the future of the Jahadists whose current predicament of defeat he laments.

What is perplexing and malicious is also that Abdalkeni Ahmed Idris believes that the emergence of Ethiopia as an important player in the global arena would be detrimental to the Sudan. On the contrary, Ethiopia believes that its own emergence as a key player in the global scene or that of the Sudan is something which is very positive not only for the aforesaid countries but also for the entire Horn and North-East Africa region as a whole.

Undoubtedly, the emergence of any country in the sub-region is only bound to help improve the image of the area which has been tarnished by years of drought, famine, civil wars and conflicts. It is therefore regrettable that Abdalkeni Ahmed Idris has a parochial and narrow perspective of what is beneficial for the Sudan.

The above view is self-defeating and myopic. It adds no value to the prospect of a collaborative and bright future in the sub-region. Besides, such a dim view is very negative and detrimental to the prospect of eventual economic and political integration in the IGAD sub-region.

Further, he alludes to the fact that some Somali faction leaders have proposed that Somalia and Ethiopia be joined together in a confederal union. In any case, the proposal about confederation was an opinion or a wish expressed by one of the former Somali faction leaders and Ethiopia has nothing to do with that. One, therefore, wonders whether the statements by Abdalkeni Ahmed Idris are wild speculations or hallucination?

The other outrageous statement of falsification by Abdalkeni Ahmed Idris refers to the fact that Ethiopia went into Somalia to prove its military might which it could not demonstrate in Eritrea. The truth is, however, that Ethiopia scored a decisive victory over Eritrea occupying nearly half of the Eritrean landmass which is subsequently vacated for UNMEE.

Ethiopia, therefore, did not need to go into Somalia to prove that it is capable of defeating Eritrea. It had already done it with flying colors and the international media had reported about it quiet extensively. One, therefore, wonders as to where Abdalkeni Ahmed Idris was when the extensive media coverage of the Ethiopian victory was taking place. Does the so-called political analyst ever follow the media or is a messenger of falsehood bent on slinging mud on the positive profile of Ethiopia?

The truth about Ethiopia is that it does not have a history of aggression, but it has always vanquished and humiliated its enemies. The list of adversarial countries that have been humiliated by Ethiopian victories begins with the battle of Adwa where the Italian army was crashed by Ethiopian forces in March 1896. The long list then continues for more than a century until its recent dazzling and spectacular victories over Eritrea and the Union of Sharia Courts (UIC).

We need not belabor the point about Ethiopia’s history of gallantry because as they say, “Good wine needs no bush.” Ethiopia did not therefore need to readvertise its globally publicized history of valor and glory. It is the writing on the wall. 

While Abdalkeni Ahmed Idris grudgingly accepts the Ethiopian victory over the Islamists and that Ethiopia and the Ethiopian leadership led by PM Meles Zenawi have as a result acquired a profile of great prominence in the Horn of Africa; nevertheless, instead of lauding Ethiopia over its victory he still seems to sympathize with the Islamists. He simply seems to gloss over the fact that the Jahadists posed a serious threat similar to that of Afghanistan and Iraq to countries of the Horn of Africa. He is also reluctant to recognize the crucial role played by Ethiopia by removing the potent threat posed to it and its neighbors by the declared expansionist agenda of the   Islamists.

Needless to add, there is no question that the UIC was bent on spreading its brand of Islam not only in Somalia but also the entire Horn of Africa sub-region including Ethiopia. Clearly, Abdalkeni Ahmed Idris seems to be an adherent of a similar political and religious persuasion as the Jahadists. If that were not the case, he would have appreciated the brilliant role played by the Ethiopian forces which stands in stark contrast with what is happening in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Abdalkeni Ahmed Idris’s analysis of the ripple effects of the Ethiopian victory over the relationship between Ethiopia and the Sudan and the Sudan and Eritrea is also bizarre. Further, it is highly speculative and misleading. We do not believe the Government of the Sudan feels intimidated by the Ethiopian victory, as he seems to suggest. On the contrary, we believe the Sudanese Government which has warm and cordial relationship with Ethiopia is happy about the outcome of the recent Ethiopian campaign of self-defense in Somalia.

Another Sudanese personality who has been trying to drive a wedge into the cordial bilateral relationship between Ethiopia and the Sudan is Ali Ismail Alattebani. Writing in the Sudanese newspaper Alraii Alalem under the title “The Balance between Moral Authority and the Use of Force”, Alattebani argues that the Ethiopian victory could pose a potential threat to countries like the Sudan. This analysis is both superficial and uninformed. He then brings in issues like Darfur which is far-fetched and totally unconnected with the campaign of self-defense which Ethiopia recently undertook in Somalia. Further, he volunteers his counsel to the Government of the Sudan to take stock off the recent victory of Ethiopia over the Jahadists in formulating its foreign and security policies. Such an advice is not only counterproductive but is also based on a serious misrepresentation of Ethiopia’s intention and action. Alattebani ought to realize that Ethiopia did not declare war on the Jahadists.  On the contrary, they did. He also seems totally unaware of the unreserved efforts which Ethiopia has been making in the quest for a negotiated settlement to the conflict in South Sudan, the follow up of the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and that it is currently exerting great efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Darfur.

A third Sudanese analyst who has made some colored and judgmental observations over Ethiopia’s campaign of self-defense is Prof. Hassan Meki. Meki is right in saying that some forces hostile to Ethiopia such as the OLF and ONLF have been operating both in Eritrea and Southern Somalia, but his extrapolation that Ethiopia takes such diminutive and unpopular forces as a serious threat is wrong. He is also wrong on another count, namely in his assertion that the Union of Sharia Courts had a popular base and wide acceptance in Somalia. This is patently wrong because the UIC was a religious extremist group that had imposed draconian Sharia laws on the people of Southern Somalia and this was strongly resented by the population in Somalia. Even the business community which gave it initial support had began to drift away from it because of its interventionist policies which had made it very difficult if not impossible for the Somali businessmen to operate. The Professor should have at least recognized the fact that the Jahadists did not have any influence or meaningful impact on nearly 75% of Somalia including a large part of Central Somalia, Puntland and the de facto state of Somaliland.

Hassan Meki also draws an erroneous conclusion by predicting the turmoil and havoc which the Ethiopian campaign of self-defense would entail in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa at large. Nevertheless, the reality is that the Ethiopian campaign only led not only to a swift victory but also to greater stabilization and harmony in central and South Somalia.

The above prophesy of doom was proven to be wrong by the reality on the ground which does not support this prediction and speculation. He would therefore have been well advised if he had not embarked on such an analytical adventure which was proven to be totally wrong overnight.

Errors of Omission and Commission

The three Sudanese analysts whose views are reviewed above have made various errors of omission and commission. This is because of their speculative propensity which is not in the enlightened self-interests of both the Governments of the Sudan and Ethiopia.

They have also been extremely biased and judgmental in their analyses by taking facts out of context and using them for drawing distorted and misleading conclusions.

It is our considered view that the Government of the Sudan is privy to more facts than them.  Besides, it is capable of drawing better conclusions regarding its relationship with Ethiopia. The reality is that Ethiopia and the Sudan share a long history of mature and mutual respect and collaboration to be misled by such colored views which are detrimental to their national interests.

Observations

One is sobered by the fact that many African countries including the Government of the Sudan have given explicit or at least implicit endorsement to the Ethiopian campaign of self-defense against the Jahadists. To appreciate this point one only needs to look at the various statements of support made by African Heads of State and Governments during the 8^th ordinary summit of the African Union which was held in Addis Ababa at the end of January, 2007.  Ethiopia has never been a warmonger. Every country has the right of self-defense when its sovereignty and territorial integrity is at risk.

Ethiopia’s victory was also greeted with enthusiasm and endorsement by most members of the international community with the exception of some ‘lords of poverty’ who were used to fishing in the troubled waters of Somalia. For many it was a pleasant surprise and for others a rude awakening. Whatever the reactions, sovereignty and self-defense are not articles of negotiation.

No doubt, many were puzzled and dazzled by the swift victory scored by Ethiopian forces over the Union of Sharia Courts. Others like Abdalkeni Ahmed Idris, Ali Ismail Alattebani and Prof. Hassan Meki were caught off-guard, because the outcome of the campaign was contrary to their predictions and expectations. 

The Sudanese analysts should, therefore, take some cues from the response of the international community (particularly, that of the African States) to the role which Ethiopia recently played in protecting its national interest as well as combating terrorism. Further, they ought to draw some lessons from the studied and mature response of the Government of the Sudan which seems to understand the rationale for Ethiopia’s act of self-defense.