Rebuttal to Professor Shinn’s Response

by G. E. Gorfu Dec 28, 2006

The analysis you have written in reply to my previous letter is quite correct, and I am glad that you agreed Ethiopia has legitimate security concerns in Somalia. From the outset, let me tell you that I too, agree with your analysis in almost every point that you have made.

There is however an issue that I would like to raise in regards to point No. 10 in your letter, and I quote, “If Ethiopia completes its military campaign quickly and then withdraws all of its forces, the area it has taken from the Islamic Courts will presumably be turned over to the TFG and former warlords.  Can they successfully withstand attacks from the Islamic Courts?  This is highly doubtful.  Will the TFG and the former warlords remain united?  This, too, is questionable.”

There are three points to consider here: first, returning the areas liberated form the Islamic Courts being turned over to the TFG. These areas can also be handed over to International Forces of the UN or AU. That is where they should be deployed until such time that a Sovereign Somali Government can be constituted and installed.

Secondly, can the TFG successfully withstand attacks from the Islamic forces? In my view, these so called, “Islamic Courts” are not even a united force, as you yourself have indicated, but are some thirty independent warlords. They only recently got together through sheer pressure and intervention by foreign Islamic elements from as far away as Egypt, Pakistan, Libya, Hezbollah, Iran… etc. through a prime facilitator, Eritrea’s Issays Afeworki. Therefore, if these outside elements are removed, it is feasible to expect that the TFG can, and should prevail.

Finally, ‘Will the TFG and the former warlords remain united?’ By “united” I take it that you to mean: “united” to the cause of forming a stable Somali government. My response here is that it is for the Somali people to decide what they would like to do at that juncture. If they allow the TFG, (“Transitional” as its name implies) to carry out its duty of constituting a Somali Government, well and good. It is to be expected that all factions will cooperate towards that one goal, and each group would have a number of seats in the future assembly according to the votes they get.

That failing, however, all this should be left for the Somali people to decide when all foreign participants leave the scene. If they want to fight it out among themselves that too should be an option left for them. As long as all foreign forces leave, and do not interfere, it should be understood that this it the internal affair of Somalia.

The most important thing in all this is to secure Somalia’s borders and enforce the UN arms embargo, so that no more arms shipments ever sneak into Somalia. I repeat, unless that can be guaranteed by the International Community, it will all be a dejavu, and in a year or two, we will be right back where we are today.