Reflection on Meles Zenawi’s Possible Retirement

By Getachew Mequanent

Sometime ago, an article posted on Aiga Forum web site caused an uproar among EPRDF supporters by suggesting that Prime Minister Meles Zenawi should leave EPRDF and politics altogether. One or two of them angrily wrote to say that this was not a good suggestion. The person who wrote that article later tried to cool things down by saying that he was only provoking critical thinking. Actually that was an interesting discussion on Meles’ political career and also about party democracy in general.

Now that Meles has indicted that he would go, let us talk about it. I have no political interest in this topic. Meles was not my employer. I know nothing about his private and political life. My interest is development. Having written a Ph.D thesis focused on rural development, I am very familiar with the complex challenges of development confronted by the Ethiopian people and government. I always put this issue above everything else such as my own political beliefs to appreciate what Meles has done to advance Ethiopia’s development.

Certainly there are people who would like to see the quick end of Meles’ era and others who do not. Those who would like to see Meles go may include: 1) members of many of the current opposition parties who are ideologically opposed to EPRDF ; 2) genuine critics who believe that Meles is not doing a good job; Tecola Hagos, for example, persists that Ethiopia and EPRDF would be better off without Meles; and 3) obviously remnants of the previous two regimes.

Likewise, those who would like Meles to stay on power may include: 1) career bureaucrats who have benefited under his rule; 2) those who fear that EPRDF will be snatched by urban middle class people who will gradually take control of the party; and 3) those who fear that Meles’ departure will create a rift within EPRDF party as different groups compete for power.

Ethiopians would like to see a change in political leadership. They would like to see an Ethiopian prime minister leaving power voluntarily with ceremonies and farewell speeches. There are also people who can infuse fresh ideas and approaches to the EPRDF party machinery to improve governance. Notable examples include Addisu Legesse, Seyoum Mesfin, Girma Biru, Sufian Amhed and others who currently hold important cabinet portfolios including potential candidates among the heads of regional states. For example, anyone with experience in governing Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regions –both regions have complex societies – can be able to run a federal state effectively.

On the other hand, retaining Meles’ leadership can be an advantageous for three reasons. First, he has increasingly become self-conscious of his reputation and this means that he will be pushing ahead with policy reforms and the democratization process. Second, he has spent years learning and accumulating political and diplomatic experiences, which are assets. Finally, Meles has a natural ability for sharp articulation of development issues and this will promote a good image of Ethiopia. It is up to the EPRDF party members to hold extensive and democratic leadership reviews to decide whether Meles should retire from the party. A hardworking man should not be pushed out of power only for the sake of appeasing critics. If you compare the quality of life in Cuba and Libya with other “democratic” states, for example, you will come to the conclusion that, in many cases what matters in politics is not a change of leadership, but a commitment by political leaders to working towards reducing poverty.

Was it Plato or Aristotle who wrote “man is a political animal”?  It meant that people articulate politics to defend and promote their own interests and aspirations. This is a very important reasoning for us. Let me explain it. Shortly after the post-election violence and the death of civilians in Addis Ababa and other cities, I was so angry with EPRDF that I wrote to express my desire for change in government (EPRDF must go). A week after I wrote this, the Amhara regional state announced that it was spending 80 or 90 million Birr (I do not remember the exact amount) to build a road from Debark to Beyeda, one of the most remote areas of Gondar. So I said “God bless EPRDF!”. When I was a child, my mother took me to a place called Islamgue near Beyeda (she had gone to see a Muslim Tenquay or astrologer). We got off the bus from Debark and walked on foot for three days crossing torturous terrains and steep valleys to reach Islamgue. Beyeda was still far away, perhaps another day of journey. Women who have labour complications or sick people must be brought to Debark for treatment, but many especially women in hard labour will never make it as they cannot survive the long and hard journey. You can see why I was happy with that road construction project. You can also see why I am opposed to the vocal Diaspora lobbying against foreign aid. My main point here is that we should not put politics above the needs of the Ethiopian people.

I cannot remember what I might have been doing when Meles and his comrades left Addis Ababa to establish a TPLF guerrilla base somewhere in Tigray. Perhaps I was trying to get interested in my late brothers’ (EPRP) political agitation – he later joined Dergue and rose to the ranks of Mengistu Haile Mariam’s Workers Party. After 15 years of fighting guerrilla war, EPRDF (which evolved from TPLF) succeeded, in 1991, in toppling Mengistu’s regime. EPRDF leaders found a demoralized society and shattered economy. Although the pace of change has been slow (perhaps measured against high expectations), they have shown us that development is possible. The next ten years will determine whether Ethiopia’s economy and society will be transformed to create the conditions necessary to raise the country to a middle-income country status. Even donor countries are becoming more and more interested in Ethiopia, not only because they give aid, but also because the country has potential to lift itself out of poverty. Strong policy leadership will be important, and for this reason, we should be concerned with what could follow from Meles’ retirement from national politics.

Let me conclude by seizing this opportunity to say a few things about the Somalia affair. I am uneasy about this affair. I was in Kenya, in 1992, when Somalia totally disintegrated and when men, women, children and the elderly flock to Kenya as refugees in tens of thousands. In the following years, the anarchic situation in Somalia allowed the rise of corrupt and powerful warlords whose militia terrorized the people of Somalia including raping women and young girls. If you have met Somalis in the Diaspora, you would probably have shared their anxiety about the safety of their families and relatives back home. I think we should acknowledge the role of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) in restoring order. Although we should be concerned with the hostility of UIC towards Ethiopia, much of the rhetoric such as “Greater Somalia” appears to me a sentiment coming from some of the UIC members who know nothing about speaking in public or diplomacy. However, the intervention of foreign countries including Eritrea and Egypt to support UIC is rather a serious issue that will have a serious implication for future Ethiopian foreign policy.

The Ethiopian government has a responsibility to protect the national interest and it is understandable that Prime Minister Meles took the threat from UIC seriously. He also had the support of all opposition parties until the introduction of a motion in the parliament seeking an authorization of military response to the UIC threat. We do not know what went on during closed-door meetings between EPRDF and opposition parties, but differences emerged and all but UEDP-Medhin voted against the resolution. The main point of contention, according to the leaders of CUDP and UEDF, was that while the perceived threat from the UIC was real or could be real, it was premature to consider deploying a military means to resolve the problem. Peaceful dialogue would have been a better option, at least for now. I think this is a sound argument with which I am in agreement. One should not be questioning the patriotism of opposition party members who voted against the resolution to authorize military action against UIC. This is also how parliamentary democracy (a system of checks and balances) is supposed to work.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! If I am not already burned out ((just as many other writers before us who got burned out and went back to their private lives), you will most likely hear from me next year. An increasing number of us are determined to continue promoting non-partisan debate on Ethiopia and I hope that more and more of you will join us in pursuing of this goal.

Getachew Mequanent

Ottawa, Canada

December 2006