The Bad, the Ugly and the Confused on the Somali Condition
(Getachew K. Reda, Mekelle University)
The Problem
For quite some time now, Somalia has come under the close scrutiny of world media outlets, governments and political analysts alike. Developments in that part of Africa are even more unsettling for Ethiopia as it finds itself arm twisted into having to grapple with whatever problems the emergence of a militant-cum-fundamentalist-cum-irredentist group next door would pose. A quick perusal of Ethiopian-related websites and other media outlets would give one a glimpse of the fervor and almost religious zeal with which the topic is being discussed among people who consider it worth their while to closely follow developments related with the problem. The discussions mainly are about what strategy is better suited to tackle the problem if indeed there is one. Generally, there seem to be a couple of strategies on the menu to deal with the ‘problem’.
The Bad
The first strategy is decidedly sinister. According to this strategy, there is no problem to fret over; none at all! To the extent that there indeed is one, people are looking for its real source in the wrong place.
In its robust form, it is represented by the hardliners in the UIC and Guess Who?! Our good neighbors the other side of Mereb! The central thesis is that Ethiopia is the problem; that bringing all Somalis under a unified Islamic Caliphate of sorts is the solution; and that Jihad is the means by which this is going to be achieved. Both the firebrand elements of the UIC leadership and their arch-sponsor and comrades-in-arms Eritrea would experiment with any means known to humanity, from C-4 explosives to Deadly missiles, from small scale attacks by rag-tag militias to an all-out war using every arsenal they can lay their hands on, as long as they believe that exactly is what it takes to set Ethiopia ablaze.
‘Infidel’ Ethiopia is to blame for everything that goes wrong in that part of Africa and as such deserves to be given a spanking! What is more, apart from being behind all the chaos and lawlessness in Somalia right from the beginning, Ethiopia is being accused of standing in the way of the UIC’s Jihad against all ‘forces of Evil’ in lawless Somalia by sending thousands of troops in support of the Transitional Federal Institutions. Eritrea for its part is more than willing to throw the full weight of what little was left of the military prowess its thuggish leaders once fancied they had in support of the UIC leadership’s Jihad against Ethiopia. They decry Ethiopia’s support of the TFG as a flagrant violation of international law all the while forgetting that the latter was the only authority in Somalia that enjoys the recognition of the same law they claim to be violated. By way of remedy to Ethiopia’s ‘violation’ of international law, Eritrea seems to have thought to respond in kind by not only equipping the UIC with all kinds of deadly weaponry and training and logistical support, but also by actually sending in a significant number of fighting force to fight alongside with them. Eritrea claims its support for the UIC is a matter of principle, out of a sense of solidarity for the Somali people, a rare display of camaraderie, indeed! The truth of the matter however remains that Eritrea has got a bigger fish to fry! That Eritrea is trying to give another difficult homework for Ethiopians is almost universally acknowledged. Only this time, they seem to have made up their mind about challenging Ethiopia head on, as that option was soundly defeated several times over. As PM Meles put it, Eritrea has decided “to fight to the last Somali”! Who is using whom in this coalition of lunatics is too theoretical a question to answer at a time when the problem it poses to Ethiopia’s peace and stability has become all the more clear and present.
However, this form of the strategy is raised somewhat only tangentially in this particular article although it remains the one that deserves the most attention. One can be all but oblivious of the crass reality of the threat the UIC leadership and their sponsors pose. For if their behavior is any guide, these are people who are very adamant about not stopping at nothing to wreak havoc on Ethiopia or any other power inclined to stand on their way, come hell or high waters!
In this article, one likes to focus-in the main- on that side of the equation as may involve stake holders from Ethiopia-government as well as opposition parties, parties of Ethiopian stock and in a broader sense, ‘neutral’ parties that have made it their business to take stock of measures and counter measures by the different actors in the conflict; loud-mouth analysts busy shoving all kinds of prescriptions down our throats in the cloak of what Zerihun Teshome laconically refers to as ‘frozen Expertise’.
The Ugly
There is a much more interesting variant of the Ethiopia-is-the-problem strategy of dealing with the problem that comes from a different source. In fact this one is more outrageous! In its clumsiest form, this variant of the strategy is represented by the let-us-stick-to-our-anti-woyane-gun frenzy of diehard elements of the so-called CUD-International and their lackeys in the Diaspora. As is the case with the hennaed leaders of the UIC, so too our schizophrenic politicos would have us believe that there is no clear and present danger the Islamists pose to Ethiopia, existential or whatever. It is all Woyane’s media ploy to shift attention away from its internal problems, a somewhat clever attempt of hoodwinking America and its allies in the war on terror by manipulating what ever has transpired in Somalia to hold onto power as long as it can. According to this view, the UIC are, at best, partners-in-waiting against the ‘Woyane Leadership’ or at worst, just harmless pussy cats emboldened by initial successes against hated-warlords craving world attention. The likes of Ethiomedia and EthioReview are Shaebia and the UIC’s newest fronts in their fight to win the hearts and minds of Ethiopians and the AFDs and CUDIs members of the new coalition of the willing against ‘Woyane’!
But in a sense this is neither surprising nor of potential significance on its own. Not surprising because all the way through, these people have always passed a verdict on EPRDF holding it responsible for ‘destroying’ Ethiopia. In a way it has contributed to the destruction of the Ethiopia they knew of and they so much yearn for- the Ethiopia of times of yore where there still was a dichotomy between very good Ethiopians and not so good ones! The Ethiopia that took pride in the beauty of its diverse valleys, mountains and rivers only to shudder at the diversity of its people! Ethiopia that sacrificed the lives, interests, cultures and identities of its peoples in the altar of territorial integrity! It is understandable if nostalgic people find the fact that that Ethiopia has changed (basically for the better!) totally unpalatable. It is also only natural if such people consider it their duty to chip in something in the fight against the culprit, i.e. ‘Woyane’, in the hope, if against hope, that they might be able to regain what they believe they have lost. A sense of loss so deep as to make alliance with your Country’s sworn enemies the right thing to do!
But the again this is of little or no potential danger as their strategy stands little or no chance of success; what with the dwindling and despondent constituency rallying behind it, and the misguided politics dividing the ranks of its proponents. Despite all the Metezazeb, it will leave behind!
The Confused & the Undecided
The second strategy is equally as interesting as the previous one except that it takes on different forms and of course different political overtones. This is the kind of ‘polite’ stance taken by the likes of the whatever-crisis-group or some such and some opposition politicians in parliament. This is not a one clear-cut strategy as it has many prongs to it. In its very modest form, it advocates an endless patience on the part of Ethiopia, a policy of wait-and-see-until-God-only-knows-when; a pacifism that would make Gandhi look a trigger happy militant. The explanation was a bit funny, if not in a not- so- funny way! As the good MP from CUDP somewhat naively put it, Ethiopia has to exhaust all peaceful means before it can start to tinker with any measure to stave off the advance of the Jihadists simply because “peaceful means can never be exhausted”! This rather seemingly bold sign of change of heart was something of a surprise coming, as it did, from an MP representing a Party whose leadership was way too economical with patience so much so the bulk of it ended up in jail practically for want of it! In such a form, it is likely that it will fall short of impressing anyone with a right mind. What is more, as by some stroke of genius, we are told how it would not make sense for a government to take action against a militant group which has not yet graduated to the level of a government. It is as if conflicts ought to take place between coequals. Maybe that wisdom is totally lost on us!
In another sense, it takes on the form of an odd mixture of promoting dialogue with one group and using the stick against another. This is the kind of shilly-shallying you could only find among politicians catering for a number of diametrically opposed constituencies. You can call it the perennial dilemma of the undecided! On the one hand, you have to put on a patriotic look while on the other you have to remain true to your confrontational form; living up to your ‘ant-Woyane’ image, that is!
According to Prof. Beyene’s UEDF, there was no point tabling the resolution in the House in the first place because the Defense Forces could naturally take measures against any incursions anyway while commending the government’s gesture as something that needs to be emulated in similar occasions in parliament. Then they tell us that they had difficulty endorsing the resolution not so much because they don’t totally agree with the PM’s characterization of the situation but rather because they were concerned that the ruling party was perhaps using the crisis to create unnecessary media hype. As to what earthly purpose such a hype could possibly serve, we are totally left in the dark. The second limb of their argument is even more interesting; they had hard time accepting the PM’s characterization of the infiltration of armed militants into Ethiopia’s sovereign territory as an act of aggression. He then unwittingly refers to the resolution as “a declaration of war against a neighboring State on the basis of its helping in the infiltration”! It only requires a rooky in political science to understand what it takes to be a State in the proper sense of the term. For God’s sake, the UIC themselves do not claim to be a government; or else UEDF must be the first to recognize them as such! One can’t help but wonder if this is just gymnastics with words aimed at keeping your audience off balance as to where you stand on a matter of extreme urgency for national security. Equally interestingly, the good professor had the effrontery to tell us that his party’s position was one of “conscientious objection” (sic). Semantics aside, such a position essentially is symptomatic of muddled thinking bordering on pernicious mediocrity.
OFDM’s position was perhaps less confusing, since we were told point blank that, while they recognize the need to deal with the Jihadists head on, they don’t believe Eritrea and its busboys in the person of the likes of OLF & ONLF should at all be implicated. Mentioning Eritrea’s involvement, we were told, would in all likelihood drag our country into uncalled for animosity with our brothers in the north where as the insurgents could rather be treated as a totally internal matter. If there is any silver lining to what they were saying, one doesn’t like to indulge in speculating as to what it could be. But this position is untenable on at least two accounts.
For one thing, if memory serves us right, Ethiopia has for close to a decade now found itself at the receiving end of Eritrea’s arm-flexing in myriads of ways. Not only did we fight a bloody war that cost thousands of lives, but also have suffered a number of deadly Eritrea-sponsored attacks throughout. They have no qualms about telling us (in Amharic, so we would not miss a thing!) that they will leave no stone unturned to see to it that Ethiopia is bombed back to the Stone Age or otherwise erased from the world map. These people have no qualms whatsoever to declare in public they would extend every possible support to a movement of any color as long as they can stick it to the Ethiopian Government. One fails to see any trace of friendly behavior in all this or it is just me who could not see it. It remains quite a mystery if any seasoned politician like the leaders of OFDM can still seriously believe there is a cordial relationship to be salvaged by turning the left cheek to the Eritrean government.
For another, treating the insurgents and the problem they pose should be taken as an internal matter as defending ourselves from the Jihadists or from whatever direction threat to our security may emanate should be treated as an internal matter. Every party needs to be paid in their own coins, as simple as that! But At least they promised to pray; let’s just keep our fingers crossed that they will pray for our success! That is not a bad idea after all!
But then again, what position these people might have taken is of secondary importance. What is more important t I guess is why in the hell would people of their ambition sink that low just to make life harder for the ruling party simply because that is believed to be the most popular game in most bars in town. One would have thought the consistent pursuit of a principled position rather than nonsensical bickering was the wisest thing to do for a politician. All along, one can see ominous signs of an evil principle at work. And that, my friends, is anything but reassuring.
The Armchair Athletes
Similarly, we have more than our fair share of self-styled analysts whose take on the Somali Condition, as I like to call it, is downright silly and in a number of cases, exceptionally outrageous. Some of them do it maybe just on the heat of the moment without caring a hoot if their explanation has anything to do with the facts on the ground: Fugitives from Somalia’s contemporary reality, which is what they are! Mistaking their fantasies and figments of their imagination for a stroke of genius, they talk ad nauseaum about ‘the long standing enmity between Christian Ethiopia and Muslim Somalia’ banking on a statistic known only to them. None of them seem to even try to update their ‘knowledge’ about demographic developments in the region.
Most of these ‘analysts’ are obviously lazy even by the most lenient of journalistic standards. Read any given news or article on Ethiopia. You can see that they are outrageously casual about facts. You cannot tell a Reuters article from that of Los Angeles Times or Boston Globe since, despite starting with different words, they end up pasting literally the same text verbatim. That same text invariably starts with stating how Christian Ethiopia has an old score to even with Muslim Somalia and how rivals Ethiopia and Eritrea are prepared to dish it out in Somalia and that Somalia has been without any functioning government, blah, blah, blah.Thing is, they don’t really care what they are talking about. How in the hell then can all the articles you can find on the Net turn out to be strikingly similar despite the identity of their authors?! They are just lazy and they don’t want to come to terms with it.
If Ethiopia says it has an inherent right to act against Jihadists who do not mince their words about fighting ‘infidel’ Ethiopia, it is interpreted as another clumsy excuse to sabotage any semblance of order and stability coming to chaotic Somalia. It as if the Ethiopian government does not have the duty, much less the inherent right, to fend off irresponsible desperados hell bent on legitimizing their irredentist ambitions through Jihadists rhetoric. Some even go so far as to suggest that Ethiopia is intervening against these Jihadists to impress the Americans into continued partnership in the war against terror! How preposterous! Ethiopia’s decision or measure to protect itself from armed lunatics does not have to impress the US or any other power. For anyone who cares to remember the dozens of terrorist plots Al-Itihad carried out in Ethiopia over a number of years, heeding such ‘frozen experts’’ advice to sit idly by hoping that they might come to their senses is a luxury we can ill-afford.
That is why Zerihun Teshome’s disappointment with the crass mediocrity of most analysts’ rendition of events taking place in Somalia is palpable. He quotes The Times of London, which is not normally known for flights of fancy, as stating that the "UIC is not acting like the Taliban and imposing religious orthodoxy, but instead has softened its views, delivered social services to residents, and is pushing for democratic elections.” He then wonders how It is hard to imagine that this is happening in Mogadishu, “the same Mogadishu of "Black Hawk Down," and clan against clan and 15 years of anarchy. But over the past three months, the Islamists in control here have defied international expectations - in many ways. Not only have they pacified one of the most dangerous cities in the world, they also seem to have moderated their message".
Even UN officials share it and play down reports of Islamic extremism. Accordingly “International aid organizations such as the World Food Program have praised the ICU for bringing stability to the capital and allowing a resumption of international aid. In 15 years, no one was able to do what they did in 15 days," Zerihun further laments that “even following the recent UN report many had the guts to still hold on to the positive peaceful UIC picture they drew for themselves”. He quotes a Reuters journalist who that “Several diplomats and analysts said the aim of these elements and the leak might have been to demonize the Islamists by reinforcing reports they have strong ties with radical Muslim governments and al Qaeda-linked groups."
Indeed, seeing all this media frenzy and half-baked political analysis, one can not help wondering why a significant number of supposedly well-informed people would defy reality and develop a blind spot towards an impending crisis in the form of an African variant of the Taliban. This ‘frozen expertise’ deplorably is instrumental in shaping many a Western Nations’ foreign policy hence the need for revealing these reckless media gurus for the humbugs that they are. They should be told that there is more to the reality on the ground than their wishful thinking would tempt them to imagine. Hussein Dahir Aweys and his fellow Sheiks are not the benevolent pacifiers these Western analysts and experts would have us believe they are. These are not just opportunist militants craving media attention just for the heck of it as our naïve politicians in parliament seem to think they are either. They are anything but.
The Working Strategy: Confronting the Enemy Head On
The idea that Ethiopia’s support of the TFG is responsible for Jihadist violence is a farce! The idea that excluding Eritrea from the resolution will help maintain the brotherly relations of the two people is a farce! The idea that infiltration doesn’t amount to an act of war is a farce! The idea that peaceful means and dialogue cannot be exhausted is a farce!
What then is going to be the working strategy Ethiopia has at its disposal?!
The answer should not have been a controversial one! Ethiopia has to fight the enemy whichever way it may come from, or whatever form it may take, HEAD ON! These does not nonetheless rule out ample room for diplomacy, a diplomacy that will not prevent us from holding our chins up in asserting our inherent right to defend ourselves without any nod of agreement from any power whatsoever!
We have to challenge our enemy head on because they are straining every muscle and nerve to destroy our Country and that they have never made that a secret! They have given their mission a phony religious touch and that is outright aggression. Because they danger is so clear and imminent that wishing it away is suicidal!
In conclusion, here are some not-so-smart observations about the two main partners in this frenzy!
Both the Jihadists of the UIC and the Eritrean government have at least two things in common: a determination to wreak havoc in Ethiopia and an incurable malaise Noam Chomsky refers to as the Samson complex. That both have made it their business to destroy Ethiopia is not something we should go around speculating about. They have always told us in no uncertain terms that nothing will stop them short of carrying that mission through. While dialogue and negotiation should not altogether be ruled out, it would be a serious dereliction of duty on the part of the Ethiopian government if it sits idly by while these war-mongering brutes are setting the country ablaze. As experience has made it abundantly clear especially in the case of Eritrea, the carrots are likely to work if the stick is also there.
What is more, both suffer from what I previously mentioned as the Samson Complex. This is the kind of morbid excitement hopeless people have about taking more people along with them down the drain of death when they know that death is around the corner. According to some biblical account, Samson, a powerful Jewish fighter was captured by the Palestinians. The Palestinians then pulled out Samson’s eyes and had him tied up to the pillars of a large hall where they were partying and ridiculing him. According to the story, Samson who was physically unusually strong person decides to bring the hall down with sheer force knowing that death was imminent. He indeed brought down the hall killing more people that day than he did during his lifetime.
While recognizing their right to go down the drain anytime, we should not however allow these desperate lunatics bring us down with them!