Some Notes and Observations

Kelemu Smeneh September 17, 2007

I have been following the unfolding of events within the Kinijt groups for the last week or so. In the first place I am very much puzzled by what people are failing to see. The current hedging for power and ‘division’ within Kinijt is an inevitable process natural to parties of this nature.

Dr Berhanu Nega’s speech in Washington D.C yesterday did not give me a sigh of relief either. The tone, militancy and defiance that I heard in that speech reminded me of the late sixties and early eighties student politics. To those who were not in a position to witness history then, it was full of rhetoric and utter defiance to authority. Derg – the brutal killing machine whose leaders seem to be resurfacing now – was the answer that we got for our ‘jebdu’ – militancy and defiance.

I was hoping that Berhanu would let bygones be bygones and concentrate on healing process. If yesterday’s speech is an indication all of us who remained optimists so far have been disappointed.

Now to the points:

It is appropriate, in my mind, to observe the following points and be informed as to why we hear confusing reports about the nature of Kinijt. Most of the points listed below are facts and some of the points are logical conclusions based on facts. I ask the reader to be dispassionate and examine the points.

1. Kinijt is a phenomenon or shall I say a ‘spirit’ that sprung to show the Ethiopian constituencies their displeasure with the then government policy and practice of Prime Minister Meles. Kinijt is not a party that had a clear program on how Ethiopia should be run.

2. The fact that Kinijt won all sits in Addis and substantial parliamentary sits in one other region does not mean that its programs, aspirations and its nature was known to Ethiopian people. Time element defies that conclusion.

3. This is a party that was formed few months prior to the May 2005 election in order to drive away the EPRDF Party from the country’s future politics. It is a coalition of parties with extremely opposite views among themselves. Hence, its survival as a party was guaranteed as long as the internal contradictions of the groups did not surface. It did not take much for the cracks to open. Now that the election euphoria is dead, however much some groups who see the danger of extinguishing the flame of hate on the survival of the party try hard, Kinijt is necessarily falling into its logical parts.

4. Kinijt is a collection of parties/individuals where every person that opposes EPRDF - whatever that opposition is- gathered and formed a united front to oust Meles. As one compatriot in one discussion forum said in his reply to me, Kinijt is an organization that comprises all ‘Ethiopian Yale” – i.e. all those who favour Ethiopia. It is an organization – in practice not in words- that considers EPRDF as an anti-Ethiopia. It is thus an organization that started on a wrong footing.

5. As a result Kinjt will break up into smaller groups and finally stop functioning as a party. If somehow a new ‘Kinijt’ emerges it will completely be a different party. It will either be a party that accepts the constitution of the country (Ethiopia) fully and advances its policies peacefully within the current parliament or a party that is affiliated to AFD and therefore becomes a Diaspora opposition party waiting to be transplanted to Ethiopia if one day the Meles Party and America by some miracle become enemies. If people were to learn from experience the status of the Cuban Opposition in Miami that is still praying for Castro to die, would have taught them the unlikelihood of this occurrence.

6. With OLF having finally to make peace with EPRDF (which is their only choice in terms of advancing their political goal and personal wellbeing), and ONLF following suite, Kinijt as a party will not be in a position to reflect the wishes and aspirations of all Ethiopian people – that is all the different nationalities that seem to like the current regional federal arrangements.

7. For any party to have the opportunity to cling to power it must outperform or match the EPRDF in terms of respecting the aspirations – in terms of economic and cultural autonomy- of the nationalities of Ethiopia. Based on the literature of the Kinijt Manifesto and the volumes of articles of its supporters in North America, it hard to conclude that this party represents all nationalities and their aspirations. Therefore, Kinijt will not do well as a national /federal party.

These observations and obviously more others seem to convince me that the Old Kinijt party will not be a viable alternative to lead Ethiopia to a more democratic state.