Dear Shewakena and all:

 

As you all know, an individual by the name of Fekade Shewakena has been using figures from a "statistical" analysis paper published on Ethnicity/Politics by Marie-Ann Valfort. I say "statistical" because the population sample was unrepresentative to which even the author acknowledges from start. With that being pretty obvious to the author, I wonder why Marie-Ann Valfort went through the trouble of writing the paper. I am not writing to have debate on statistics but on certain figures included in the paper.

The author shows data taken from the Central Statistical Authority publication from March 2001 for year (1999/2000) showing Tigray benefiting disproportionately as compared with the other regional states. This data has been used by the likes of Fekade Shewakena for their hateful propaganda.

I have not been able to find comparable data for the year 1999/2000 but I was able to get subsidy data for the years 2002/2003 and 2003/2004. The data is consistent with the budget allocation formula as described by Sufian Ahmed which is based on the following variables - population (60%), level of development (25%) and revenue mobilization ability (15%).

More Info can be found at:
http://www.mofaed.org/FedGovBudget-1995-Detail-Reccurrent.htm
http://www.mofaed.org/FedGovBudget-1996-Detail-Reccurrent.htm
See table below breakdown. Data was taken from the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development website.
Subsidy to Regions Population % 2002/03 Subsidy % Per Capita 2003/04 subsidy % Per Capita
Tigray 4,122,696 6% 458,150,000 8% 111 485,100,000 8% 118
Afar 1,454,366 2% 224,990,000 4% 155 319,900,000 5% 220
Amhara 18,185,502 26% 1,335,050,000 22% 73 1,252,300,000 21% 69
Oromia 24,624,336 35% 1,846,610,000 31% 75 1,636,500,000 27% 66
Somali 4,447,248 6% 372,040,000 6% 84 475,400,000 8% 107
Benishangul/Gumuz 605,284 1% 177,510,000 3% 293 241,100,000 4% 398
SNNPR 13,640,842 19% 1,138,920,000 19% 83 1,051,500,000 17% 77
Gambella 239,062 0% 130,580,000 2% 546 185,000,000 3% 774
Harreri 172,385 0% 77,520,000 1% 450 90,300,000 1% 524
Addis Abeba 2,777,241 4% 122,520,000 2% 44 191,400,000 3% 69
Dire Dawa 331,081 0% 85,910,000 1% 259 114,900,000 2% 347
Total 70,600,043 100% 5,969,800,000 100%   6,043,400,000 100%  
Population figures were taken from Marie-Ann Valfort's paper, page. 6.

The breakdown not only supports the budget allocation formula but also shows other states benefiting more, despite that, the author chose to only single out Tigray. This begs the question - who is Marie-Ann Valfort? Where are these figures coming from? Why they haven't made the entire report from CSA available?

Fekade Shewakena's latest can be read:
http://www.ethiomedia.com/carepress/question_with_question.html

Marie-Ann Valfort paper
http://www.ethiomedia.com/carepress/voting_in_ethiopia.pdf

 

By New Ethiopia,