Dear Shewakena and all:
As
you all know, an individual by the name of Fekade Shewakena has been
using figures from a "statistical" analysis paper published on
Ethnicity/Politics by Marie-Ann Valfort. I say "statistical" because
the population sample was unrepresentative to which even the author
acknowledges from start. With that being pretty obvious to the author, I wonder
why Marie-Ann Valfort went through the trouble of writing the paper. I am not
writing to have debate on statistics but on certain figures included in the
paper.
The author shows data taken from the Central Statistical Authority publication
from March 2001 for year (1999/2000) showing Tigray benefiting
disproportionately as compared with the other regional states. This data has
been used by the likes of Fekade Shewakena for their hateful propaganda.
I have not been able to find comparable data for the year 1999/2000 but I was
able to get subsidy data for the years 2002/2003 and 2003/2004. The data is
consistent with the budget allocation formula as described by Sufian Ahmed
which is based on the following variables - population (60%), level of
development (25%) and revenue mobilization ability (15%).
More Info can be found at:
http://www.mofaed.org/FedGovBudget-1995-Detail-Reccurrent.htm
http://www.mofaed.org/FedGovBudget-1996-Detail-Reccurrent.htm
See table below breakdown. Data was taken from the Ministry of
Finance and Economic Development website.
Subsidy to Regions
Population
%
2002/03 Subsidy
%
Per Capita
2003/04 subsidy
%
Per Capita
Tigray
4,122,696
6%
458,150,000
8%
111
485,100,000
8%
118
Afar
1,454,366
2%
224,990,000
4%
155
319,900,000
5%
220
Amhara
18,185,502
26%
1,335,050,000
22%
73
1,252,300,000
21%
69
Oromia
24,624,336
35%
1,846,610,000
31%
75
1,636,500,000
27%
66
Somali
4,447,248
6%
372,040,000
6%
84
475,400,000
8%
107
Benishangul/Gumuz
605,284
1%
177,510,000
3%
293
241,100,000
4%
398
SNNPR
13,640,842
19%
1,138,920,000
19%
83
1,051,500,000
17%
77
Gambella
239,062
0%
130,580,000
2%
546
185,000,000
3%
774
Harreri
172,385
0%
77,520,000
1%
450
90,300,000
1%
524
Addis Abeba
2,777,241
4%
122,520,000
2%
44
191,400,000
3%
69
Dire Dawa
331,081
0%
85,910,000
1%
259
114,900,000
2%
347
Total
70,600,043
100%
5,969,800,000
100%
6,043,400,000
100%
Population
figures were taken from Marie-Ann Valfort's paper, page. 6.
The breakdown not only supports the budget allocation formula but also shows
other states benefiting more, despite that, the author chose to only single out
Tigray. This begs the question - who is Marie-Ann Valfort? Where are these
figures coming from? Why they haven't made the entire report from CSA
available?
Fekade Shewakena's latest can be read:
http://www.ethiomedia.com/carepress/question_with_question.html
Marie-Ann Valfort paper
http://www.ethiomedia.com/carepress/voting_in_ethiopia.pdf
By New Ethiopia,