A growing number of people are criticizing the current Ethiopian government policy on Eritrea and some among them appear to suggest that EPRDF take a military action. May I remind everyone that any advocacy of war with Eritrea is ill-advised, unnecessary and counter-productive.
War causes the loss of lives, destruction of homes, displacement of men, women and children and damage to farmlands and the ecosystem. It creates another historical wound between Ethiopians and Eritreans. It creates an uncertain economic environment and discourages investment by foreign and domestic investors. Finally, should EPRDF declare war, bilateral and multilateral donors can stop the flow of aid resources to Ethiopia; this could mean, for example, cessation of currently operational projects: roads, dams, electricity expansion, schools, health centres, agricultural services, etc. If the Ethiopian government decides to burn resources on the battlefield, why would donors transfer taxpayer’s money to Ethiopia? In 1998, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi defended his action (to go war with Eritrea) by saying “you don’t need to have a full belly to defend the sovereignty of your country”. This time, I doubt if he can get away with it. In short, war with Eritrea will bring serious consequences that will have an impact on economic growth and overall development in Ethiopia.
We could agree that Isayas Afewerki and many Eritrean elites do not have good wishes for Ethiopian people. This is even understandable, given their anti-Ethiopian mindset influenced too much by decades of political agitation about “Ethiopian colonialism” (meanwhile, to everyone’s surprise, they love and admire Italian colonists!). But let us remember that Eritreans had fought side by side with Ethiopians to defend the independence of this ancient nation. Let us also think positive and envisage the time that Ethiopians and Eritreans will share common citizenship, common political destiny and economic wealth.
I ask my compatriots to show restraint by stopping to think war with Eritrea. The benefits from maintaining the status quo outweigh the benefits from waging a war by up to thirty-fold.
I commend Ethiopian government foreign policy advisors for their capability to manage the current Eritrean issue effectively.
Ottawa, Canada
March 3, 2007