HORN OF AFRICA: RELIGIOUS TOLERANCE CRUCIAL FOR STABILITY

 (Second part of two parts)

By Mathza

Jun 05, 2007

 

Based on the presentation in the first part of this article what can one conclude on the military intervention by Ethiopia in Somalia at the invitation by the internationally recognized Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG) which, unlike the UIC, represents all Somalis? The deployment of the Ethiopian Defense Forces there was defensive in two ways. First, it was carried out after the TFG was attacked by the UIC. It was intended to protect and enable the former to assert itself as the legitimate government of Somalia. Secondly, it was to get rid of the UIC, the menace on Ethiopia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and the on-going development.            

 

Despite the doomsayers, particularly the shrinking and divided CUD and its Diaspora supporters as well as the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF) unpatriotic attitude towards defending the country, no country, except Eritrea and Djibouti reacted negatively to Ethiopia’s intervention in Somalia. Later on, Djibouti completely reversed its position and supported and justified Ethiopia’s military intervention. The international community, including the African Heads of State and Government (at their 8th summit) and some anti-Ethiopian Islamic countries supported Ethiopia. Examples of the last include Egypt and Libya. This is significant as these countries are fellow members of the Arab League of which Somalia is also a member. It should be noted here that some of them are historical enemies of and known for destabilizing Ethiopia. They were among those who, according to the reports of the UN Monitoring Group and the International Crisis Group, backed and supplied military hardware to the UIC.

Now, what would have been the consequences if Ethiopia had not intervened against the UIC militia in Somalia? The UIC would have annihilated the TFG and established a Taliban type of government, a government that would enable jihadists from all over the world to have a base, a safe haven and a breeding ground from where to conduct terrorism and violence in the Horn of Africa and anywhere in the world. It would, particularly, constitute a serious threat to Ethiopia and force the latter into an incessant war. It would have provided OLF and ONLF financial, arms, material, training, troop and logistical support as well as bases from where to operate against Ethiopia.  

Reports in “Harmony and Disharmony: Exploiting Al-Qa'ida's Organizational Vulnerabilities” (http://www.ctc.usma.edu/aq_600053-1.asp) authored by Combating Terrorism Center at West Point dated mid 1990’s give a good indication of what has been planed and executed and what would, eventually, have been the fate of Somalia, Ethiopia,  the Horn of Africa and beyond. In one of the reports “A Short Report on the Trip from Nairobi to Cape Kamboni and the Situation in the Southern Region” an al-Qaeda operative, Omar al-Sumale, revealed the killing of a Belgian soldier and driving the Indian army out of Kamboni, both with Al-Qa’eda supported forces. Another al-Qa’eda operative dubbed ‘Uncle’ described the suitability and strategic location of Cape Kamboni for a base for Al-Qa’eda financing. It was later used as a training camp for al-Itihad al-Islamia. By the way, these two men provide additional evidences of the presence of al-Qa’eda operatives in Somalia.

The nay Sayers’s answer to the above question on consequences is just the opposite and very repetitive. They argue that the deployment of Ethiopian forces would expose Ethiopia to terrorists. They say the intervention in Somalia has earned Ethiopia hate and enmity of Muslim countries which as if these countries and their institutions which matter have not been and are not still involved in undermining Ethiopia. It is partly thanks to the intrigues, machinations, etc. of such countries that Ethiopia has been involved in devastating internal and external wars for centuries and, as a result, was left behind in development. As we all know such countries and institutions consider ‘Christian Ethiopia’ — wrongly dubbed as it is both a Christian/Muslim nation — a threat to Islam and impediment to islamization. (The traditional influence of the church disappeared with the removal of the imperial rule in the 1970s and the institution in the 1990’s of the constitution which separated state and religion — no more state religion). They, in fact, want to convert it to an Islamic state. It is, therefore, naïve to think that Ethiopia will be spared from the wrath of terrorists and jihadists had it refrained from taking action in Somalia. Amanpour’s recent investigative report in regard to Europe referred to in the first part shows the stark reality awaiting Ethiopia whatever the circumstances, i.e. irrespective of whether it takes action or not. Inaction would, on the contrary, be considered weakness and embolden terrorists and the so-called liberation fronts to strike more and hard.  

                                                                                   

In the absence of intervention, the UIC government would have established an extreme Islamic state and ceaselessly worked to achieve Greater Somalia and Islamize Ethiopia, using destructive means, such as terrorists, suicide bombers operating from Somalia itself and the so-called liberation fronts and eventually invading the country. In the words of Sheikh Hassan Dhahir Aweys "We will leave no stone unturned to integrate our Somali brothers in Kenya and Ethiopia and restore their freedom to live with their ancestors in Somalia." Putting such threat into practice would lead to not only interrupting and reversing the development process that is pulling Ethiopia out of abject poverty but also worsening living conditions of the people as has happened during Ahmed Gragn’s invasion referred to in the first part. The horrific sacrifice in human and material loss the country will be forced to pay in the future will be incredibly high compared to the current defensive measure. It should be recalled here that not so long ago, Somalia invaded Ethiopia in 1964 and 1977-1978 in order to fulfill its dream of Greater Somalia. By the way, was there any coordination by Somalia and EPLF which enabled the latter to take over Nakfa during the second war by opening two war fronts at the same time? Anyway, there is no alternative but to nip in the bud a repeat of such invasions and confrontations in other forms. It is clear that the opposition parties and their supporters who were against government taking appropriate actions against the UIC had made themselves not only irrelevant but also traitors.

 

Somalia poses a grave risk not only to the security of its own people but also to the entire Horn of Africa and Great Lakes region. The action taken by Ethiopia will eventually bring relative peace to the region. The surrender of over 100 ONLF members, including high officials, is the beginning in this direction. With stricter monitoring and security the recent atrocities committed by the ONLF in the Somali State is not likely to be repeated at such a scale. Closure of OLF bases in southern Somalia (Qorioli and Marka) in the same area where al-Qaeda operatives were operating deprives OLF its capability to hit and hide.                                             

 

Of course, 15 years of lawlessness and anarchy is not going to disappear overnight. Things would get worse before they get better. The so-called experts, journalists, commentators, analysts, alarmists, doomsayers, etc. particularly those based in Nairobi, have been predicting doom and gloom without any qualifications to the obvious possibility for resistance and sporadic attacks by the remnants of the UIC. During a political change there are gainers and losers. It is normal for the losers to feel threatened and react. All that the doomsayers have, intentionally or unintentionally, done is to embolden some elements in the country to disturb the peace, including elements that may have had no inkling or would not have dared to oppose the government. Following their recent defeat the remnants of UIC militants, some disgruntled warlords, hooligans and looters, would probably continue to intimidate the people and disrupt the peace in the near future, both inside and outside of Mogadishu. As would have been expected, their disruption was intensified when the government started the process of disarmament.  

 

In part, the intention of the trouble makers was to scare away the African Union peacekeeping force from deployment. When their threatening failed they dragged and burnt the bodies of soldiers, a tactic successfully used with the USA soldiers in the past which obviously did not work this time. It is evident that delay in deployment has encouraged the culprits to intensify their carnage. The belligerence which is currently being encouraged and financed by foreign countries and organizations will likely be over after the basic government institutions are established and running. Intervention from the international community and the government’s adoption of reconciliatory and an inclusive approach will mitigate any such near future disturbances. The forthcoming national reconciliation conference bringing together the TFG, clan, religious and traditional leaders and the moderate elements of the UIC is expected to remove most of the hurdles that may make it difficult to establish a viable and stable government by incorporating non-TFG elements. The TFG, however, ruled out the participation of the extreme elements of the UIC. This was supported at the International Contact Group on Somalia meeting (Cairo, 04/03/07) when the Arab League said "extremists should have no role in national reconciliation in Somalia.” The eventual result of the reconciliation will be greater stabilization and harmony in Somalia.      

 

Some of the statements made and repeated ad infinitum by the media, analysts and others — many of them inaccurate, biased, unrealistic (see http://www.ethiopiafirst.com/news2007/Apr/PINR.pdf ) — had fueled the fighting in Mogadishu. Many of the statements originate from supporters of the UIC and those harboring ill will against Ethiopia; they do not represent the sentiments of the Somalis outside of Mogadishu. One of them presents the Hawiye dominated UIC and restricted to a small part of Mogadishu as representative of the Somali people and the ultimate salvation to Somalia’s troubles. Other statements include “weak, transitional government,” “weak and unpopular,” “lacked support,” “has no broad legitimacy,” and “a failing government.” The latest repetition relates to the urban fighting in Mogadishu long started by the insurgents’ atrocities: using civilian population as shield, assassinating police and government officials and sympathizers, shooting down two planes (one of them carrying aid materials) and indiscriminately shelling and killing innocent people. It accused the TFG and the Ethiopian forces of war crimes, instead of the insurgents. All of these, as some of the media themselves have asserted, have emboldened the UIC and some Hawiye militants to breach the ceasefire and discontinue the on-going peace efforts. Is it not possible that, because of their premature pronouncements that are equivalent to inciting the insurgents, those who made such utterances could be held responsible for the resumption of fighting? Have they not become part of the problem and contributed to derailing the hoped for result? They should have predicted the consequences of their statements and allegations. Eritrea’s continuing inciting and organizing armed insurrection and hosting UIC extreme elements as well as the delay of force contributing African countries to field their forces have, of course, added to bolstering the insurgents’ confidence to intensify and continue the fighting. The regrettable contribution and role of some of the Ethiopian oppositions in this regard is probably the most ridiculous, i.e. going counter to defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country.

The recent call of Somali refugees regrouping in Asmara for Ethiopian forces to leave Somalia or face all-out war and for Somalis to resist the so-called Ethiopian occupation is not surprising. What is surprising is one of the authors of the call was Hussein Mohammed Farah Aideed, the flip flopping Deputy Prime Minister who recently defected. It should be recalled that he had praised Ethiopia for defeating the UIC. This is what he said "The heroic army of Ethiopia supported the transitional government to restore normality to the country after 16 years of violence… I thank the people and the government of Ethiopia on behalf of my government." He even went further and said “the government wants that Somalia and Ethiopia share a single passport and wipe out the boundary between the countries.” – citing the unity of European countries as one nation and sharing one currency (Somali Net, January 02, 2007). He made these statements before he was demoted.

It was lack of consistent and sustained international support that led Somalia to cease its statehood. This time it is very unlikely that the international community will let down Somalia. The 8th African Union Summit resolution which, among other things, appealed for quick international assistance is the basis for this optimism. Further confirmation of support is the positive response by the UN, EU, USA, etc. to back up the African peacekeeping forces destined for Somalia and to provide other assistance. The assistance included USA’s and Algeria’s airlifting peacekeeping forces. Dr. Jendayi Frazer’s, Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, testimony that the USA “will therefore take strong measures to deny terrorists safe haven in Somalia, as well as the ability to plan and operate from Somalia” confirms USA’s commitment to the stability in the Horn of Africa. In other words, the USA will not, this time, abandon Somalia as it did previously. It is worth noting here that, in spite of the insistence of the UIC extreme elements demand for the Ethiopian forces to leave Somalia, as well some Ethiopian oppositions’ wishes for and prediction of failure of Ethiopian measures against the UIC, the international community, excluding Eritrea, recognized the need for and supported the continued presence of the Ethiopian forces until the African forces attain an adequate level of strength. The latest support came from IGAD which “Expresses its appreciation to the Ethiopia Government for all the sacrifices it has made to promote the common position of IGAD Member State.” 

The relationship established between the Ethiopian and Somali governments is likely to strengthen despite the mostly politically motivated alleged and exaggerated hatred of Somalis against Ethiopia. Manifestation of hatred is, for obvious reason, limited to the Hawiye clan area of southern and northern Mogadishu covering about three of the 16 districts of the city. According to Hawiye elders the insurgents are Hawiye militiamen who refused to disarm. One does not hear about hate rhetoric, hatemongering and disturbances outside Mogadishu in southern Somalia and Puntland. Some Hawiye clan leaders who gave a blind eye to the use of civilians as shields and their residences as launch pads for the UIC remnants and their own militias were, in part, responsible for the urban Gorilla fighting in Mogadishu. The fact that a truce was brokered by such elders during the first fighting says it all. The confirmation expressed by one clan leader that the hate against Ethiopians is limited to a minority group of the Hawiye clan is a welcome revelation and admittance. Further good news, according to Antony Shaw, is “In Mogadishu, Hawiye elders are taking back their responsibilities of control in almost all areas of the city.” (http://www.ethiopiafirst.com/news2007/Apr/PINR.pdf).

According to Garowe Online, on April 25 when the second fighting intensified in Mogadishu “Residents expressed worry that the Ethiopian troops and armor might not be able to defeat the violent insurgency that threatens to dethrone Somalia’s 14th attempt at national governance in the last 16 years.” To their relief, the fighting ended in late April in favor of the TFG. The clan and religious leaders admitted the extremists were responsible for “the human causalities and problems created in Somalia.”  The latest news (May 30) is that traditional elders of Hawiye tribe have, after a special meeting, condemned killings and bombings. They appealed to “all the residents in Mogadishu to stand for making peace…” They promised to work together with the TFG in ensuring peace and stability in Mogadishu and its environs. Unfortunately, roadside explosions and assassinations of government officials continue. The government accused the dominant Hawiye clan elders for not keeping their promise.

The doomsayers have been predicting the likely situation in Somalia to resemble those in Afghanistan and Iraq. What they do not want to admit is that, Somali terrorists will not get support, assistance and cooperation from its neighbors as do Afghanistan and Iraq. With expected tight border control with neighboring countries and Western vessels monitoring the Somali coast (note the recent American military strike in north east Somalia killing ten foreign and Somali Islamist militants who had come from the southern tip of Somalia) and despite Osama bin Laden’s and Al-Zawahiri’s repeated call for an Iraq-style insurgency in Somalia, the remnants of the UIC will not be able to carry out a sustained guerilla campaign for long. Unlike the Talibans in Afghanistan, Somali insurgents do not have a safe haven, inaccessible rugged mountainous area and friendly tribes like those in Pakistan where they can retreat and hide. Unlike the terrorists in Iraq, they do not have countries, such as Iran and Syria, who provide them with weapons and facilitate their access to Iraq. Because of their physical features and complexions foreign terrorists will have difficulty moving around and be easy preys. Sooner or later the insurgents will run out of ammunitions. 

 

Who knows, the Ethiopian intervention may prove to be a blessing in disguise. In the globalizing environment Ethiopia and Somalia may eventually end up forming some kind of economic and political integration. Given the trend in the world towards increasingly cut throat competitive markets and therefore the need for larger and viable economies it would make a lot of sense to hasten such eventuality in the Horn of Africa. Eritrea would inevitably be part of such a future. It should be recalled here that at a press conference in 1996, President Isayas himself hinted at the possibility for confederation with Ethiopia. The Eritrean Ambassador in Ethiopia was more specific in stating that political integration was the goal and that “forming an independent state was never the ultimate goal of our long struggle.” The East African federation which is in the process of formation is a model for the countries in the Horn of Africa. Another is Southern Sudan’s giving up its option of constitutional provisions to secede in order to rip the benefit from a united Sudan. These are harbingers for the eventual sub regional integration. The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) conference held recently set new time table for achieving its goals: customs union by 2008, common market by 2014 and economic community by 2018.

 

Sooner or later the Somali people will find out that the extreme elements have been bombarding them with hateful messages and propaganda against Ethiopians. They will also realize that a stable Somalia recognized and supported by the world community would be the result of Ethiopia’s intervention, including diffusing dangerous confrontations and bringing stability and peace among the major political players in Somalia. Optimistically, this relationship could provide opportunity for both governments to initiate cooperation in the economic sector — based on complementary resources — in order to improve the wretched living conditions of their peoples. The countries in the Horn have a lot of urgent needs, including mitigating abject poverty and underdevelopment, whose attainment can be enhanced through the implementation of joint plans, programs and projects. They should concentrate on this window of opportunity. Such cooperation could serve as a stepping stone towards federation or confederation. This is the right thing to do now in order to achieve the African Union’s African political, social and economic objectives and mitigate the adverse impact of globalization on poor countries as well as achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015.

 

Religious tolerance is a necessary precondition for attaining the lofty objectives and goals of the African Union, including peace and stability and meeting the basic needs of the people. Extreme fundamentalists, terrorists and separatists should realize that whatever they are doing is futile and only brings further hardship to their and other peoples.