OPPOSITIONS DURING EPRDF ETHIOPIA:

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

By Mathza

(The writer is a concerned independent Ethiopian observer.

He has no direct or indirect connection with the government or EPRDF or its

component organizations or affiliates or any other group.)

This writing supplements my previous one titled “OPPOSITIONS DURING EPRDF ETHIOPIA: POLITICS AND DEMOCRACY.” The latter ferreted out some of the oppositions’ criticisms on government policies and actions related to ethnic-based federalism, state land ownership, human rights, democracy, governance, support of the people, attacks on the leadership, other criticisms, and the private press. It tried to respond to the criticisms. The current one attempts to do likewise to criticisms in regard to social and economic development.

The oppositions not only refuse to admit but also deny that social and economic developments have taken place in the country in the last thirteen years. Some even have dared to allege the total collapse of the economy. Of course, they would never cite statistical information to support their lies. There is a plethora of data and information on social and economic indicators which they conveniently ignore because it makes nonsense of their baseless and wild generalizations and allegations. Most recently they ridiculed the government for announcing many development projects, “unseen ‘development’ reports.” The fact that it takes time to plan and develop projects and the fact that most of the projects are financially backed by foreign donors and financial institutions requiring time consuming negotiations means that the projects were finalized and received the support of donors and financial institutions recently. It should be noted here that, because of the Ethio-Eritrea war, development assistance was discontinued. As noted elsewhere, following the end of the war, donors and financial institutions have come to appreciate and support the development efforts of the government.

They attribute all the socio-economic ills to poor governance. In developing countries a long lead time to plan and mobilize resources are required. This applies to the implementation stage as well. Inadequacy of skilled and dedicated manpower at all levels, poor infrastructure and lack of resources are among the crucial factors determining the pace of development. If these were what constitute poor governance the oppositions’ diagnosis would be correct. It is inconceivable that a fraction of what the incumbent government has achieved would have been done had any of the naysayers, oppositions, in the unlikely event, been in power. This part of the writing tries to briefly draw the attention of the readers to some examples of developments that have taken and are taking place.

The average of about 6% real growth rate of GDP, one of the highest in Africa, during the rule of the incumbent government is, of course, never mentioned by the oppositions. This could have been substantially higher if it had not been for the war with Eritrea, the fall in international coffee prices and drought, the last resulting in GDP decline of 3.8% in 1995 (EC). Development in non-agricultural activities during the same year, the first year implementation of the Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program (SDPRP), however, showed marked increases in: gross school enrollment ratio from 59% to 64.4%, health service coverage to 60%, road density to 31 Km per 1000 square Km, and access to improved water supply (two million people benefiting from water supply and sanitation) to 34%. These are examples of progress made in one year despite the drought.

The devastating impact of high rate of population increase (2.7-3.0%) on GDP per capita hovering around US$100 is never referred to. Every year the gain in development is absorbed by two million additional people. Population pressure negatively impacts on agriculture by over-farming with the result of decreasing yield and further parceling the already small plots, and therefore progressively reducing output per household. Notwithstanding the apparent social and economic achievements against all overwhelming odds, including war with Eritrea, drought and HIV/AIDS as well as obstructions and distractions created by the opposition themselves and others, they unashamedly blame the government for making the people poorer.

The inflow of foreign investment as a result of progressively improving investment environment was interrupted by the war with Eritrea. Now that peace prevails, it would, in all likelihood, be expected to pick up and steadily increase in the near future. This optimism is supported by the following statistics. Twenty three foreign out of a total 562 projects worth 28.4 billion Birr were licensed during the first half of 1995 (EC) budget year. The corresponding figures for the same period in 1996 (EC) were 104 and 385. The former accounted for 50% of the total registered capital of over 4.3 billion Birr. The reduction of waiting period from two to one year of engagement in business for entrepreneurs to qualify to benefit from the export credit guarantee scheme will enable investors/exporters compete in international market -- an additional means of attracting foreign investment.

The country showed marked changes in its standing in the international community. Its rank in FDI (foreign direct investment) performance index put her at 118 (out of 136 countries) in 1988-1990. This improved to 97 in 1998-2000. Based on 1990-2001 and despite the uncertainty due to the war with Eritrea, Ethiopia was in the top category (out of four) of LDCs that achieved more than 20% annual average FDI growth rates (Eritrea at the fourth, last category.) The dramatic increase in and wide participation of foreign enterprises in the latest grand international exhibition in Addis Ababa is another indication of the success that the country is scoring in regard to the foreign private sector.

Foreign companies recently formed and about to be formed include Europeans (flowers and coffee), Indian (sugar) and American (food). US Food Development Corporation will invest US$250 million in food development project that will provide employment opportunity for 30,000 people and export processed foods. A consortium of foreign investors is constructing a one billion Birr food processing plant in the SNNS. Foreign interest and participation in the development of the horticultural industry is growing at a fast rate, the latest newcomer being Red Fox Ethiopia, a private company, in Lome Woreda of East-Shoa Zone. The Jordanian company SI Tech International (SIL), expected to start functioning soon, is, by far, the most important with more than US$4 billion investment in industry, agriculture and power generation. Every one, of course, knows about the growing investment, currently at about US$1 billion, by Sheikh Mohammed Alamudi. The continuing exchange of visits between Ethiopian government officials and business community and their counterparts in other countries are very likely to pay more dividends in the form of inflow of foreign investment. According to the German Ambassador to Ethiopia, Deutche-Africa, an association of businesspersons in Hamburg, which is expected to visit the country in October, “is eyeing Ethiopia as a priority country for potential direct investment.” These disprove the misinformation that the country was not attracting FDI. It should be noted here that the United Nations Industrial Development Organization considers Ethiopia as one of the seven sub-Saharan African countries that are "likely to attract investment."

The oppositions theorize on development and spew out general proposals and recommendations, most of them irrelevant in the sense that the government has already been planning and implementing development programs and projects in the same areas. Examples of such broad proposals and recommendations include: conserve natural resources (water, soil, etc.); develop irrigation, reforestation and afforestation; harvest water (build dams, construct water wells, etc.); and develop institutional and physical infrastructures. Take drought, for instance. There was a proposal for the establishment of National Executive Committee (NEC) in connection with the “impending famine.” This is a good example of proposals that duplicate existing activities, institutions, programs and projects -- in this case the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission -- and waste time and resources instead of using and, if necessary, improving, strengthening and broadening existing infrastructures, if necessary.

Well meaning critics would question if enough has been done and try to find out. In their search for truth such critics would take into account the prevailing conditions, constraints, resource availability, world economic order, etc. With globalization (exemplified by poor and declining commodity prices), external factors are increasingly restricting the ability of poor governments to maneuver their policies and strategies. In regard to Ethiopia, the drastic fall in coffee price, reported to have deprived the country of US$830 million in export earnings, is a glaring example of this. The critics’ search would likely lead them to conclude that some or enough progress has been made.

News on development activities are intentionally excluded in most websites. Walta Information Center, The Ethiopian Reporter and Ethiopian Market are among the few exceptions. Those who frequent Walta know well a day does not pass by without witnessing numerous news and reports on development. For example, Walta.com (11/24/03) posted a report titled “Impact Assessment of ESRDF Financed Subprojects.” According to the report, the Ethiopian Social Rehabilitation and Development Fund (ESRDF), a governmental organization (GO) whose aim is “to improve the well being of the poor,” had implemented over 3,213 demand driven development subprojects (3,550 projects to date) benefiting 21 million people and is in the process of implementing 614 more. Its administrative cost is less than 10% of the total fund at its disposal, an indication of efficient use of financial resources. About 10% of the cost for all projects has been and is being provided by the communities concerned. Its in-depth, detailed and informative performance report during the period 1996-2001, which includes impact assessment study by a consulting firm, shows a relatively cost effective success story that should be emulated by others, including the sectoral ministries and other governmental institutions. In the areas it is involved, its contribution to development as percent of total at national level ranges from 16.9% for rural water supply to 50% for primary education schools. As part of the preparation of the report, interviews of the beneficiaries were conducted by the consultants. A large majority of the beneficiaries said the subprojects implemented made substantial differences in the quality of their lives and expressed the wish for more assistance. Those in the opposition camp would be advised to read the report, if they have intentionally ignored to do so. There is, therefore, no excuse to feign no knowledge of the economic and social development taking place in the country for lack of information.

Here are two other recent examples of projects that have been and are being undertaken in respect of drought. The first is a report on the completion of the construction of three irrigation projects in East Hararghe. These are among the many micro dams and irrigation projects that have been operational and are under construction in the drought prone areas in different parts of the country. The second has to do with the voluntary resettlement of some 440,000 households (about 2.2 million people) in three years. Last year up to 150,000 farmers were being resettled in Oromia, Afar and Amhara States. Obviously, these are indications that most, if not all, of the recommendations by oppositions are redundant. Following visits to resettlement sites, a team of donor countries' ambassadors and representative of the international organizations said the resettlement program was encouraging. Oppositions may counter citing relatively high rates of infant mortality in a pilot resettlement camp reported by Medicines sans Frontiers (MSF). Problems are bound to arise now and then and here and there. Introduction of changes involve some risks which should be minimized as much as possible by taking precautionary measures in advance, especially taking account of lessons learned from past resettlement efforts. What matters is the net result: the hazards encountered are less than the casualties due to recurrent droughts and timely measures are taken to correct them when and if they occur. In the case of resettlement it boils down to the question of a choice between two evils -- death casualties in the tenth or hundreds versus in the thousands or possibly in the millions.

There are many more drought related achievements and projects. In 1995 (EC), 139,462 water harvesting structures were constructed in four major regional states. The following are among other examples of developments undertaken or being undertaken in drought prone areas reported in January/February 2003 in the Walta website:

· 42 water wells completed and 203 other water related projects under implementation in Oromia State,

· construction launched on 83,400 ponds and 6,600 other water harvesting works in Oromia State,

· construction of 2,000 water wells and ponds underway in Tigray State,

· 14 irrigation projects completed and 10 others under construction in SNNPS,

· a dam to irrigate 38,000 hectares to be launched in the Amhara State,

· 17 development projects launched last year in the Afar State completed and include the Gewane Pastoralist College, Semara Rural technology, Semera crop conservation clinic,

· Completion of the construction of 1,718 water harvesting schemes in North Wello (Amhara State), and

· Feasibility study for small-scale irrigation schemes being carried out by the Japanese government.

Other projects related to drought and food security reported more recently include: a 7,050-hectares irrigation scheme becoming operational in the Somali State, over 13,000-hectare irrigation project under development in Gamma Gofa (SNNPS), development of 4,725 hectares of irrigated land in Tigray State in 1995 (EC), 27,450 water harvesting wells ready for service in Oromia State, 26,273 water harvesting wells already holding four million cubic meter in Tigray State, 69,121 water harvesting wells to irrigate 11,244 hectares of land launched in Amhara State, and a three-year program of afforestation of 1.3 million hectares to be eventually extended to 2.6 million hectares in Oromia State.

According to the oppositions, the schools, health facilities, agricultural projects, roads, telecommunications, airports, dams, electricity generation and transmission, manufacturing establishments, etc. developed, built and operating are illusions, do not exist. Now let us briefly look at what has been and is being done in these areas.

A: Education

The following are among the achievements in less than 10 years time: over 50.4% increase in number of schools, 76.5% in teachers and 190.7% in enrollment (246.8% if based on the 1991/92 figures.) School enrollment in universal primary education in the last few years showed dramatic increase from 20% to 64.4%. The coverage for secondary education is 19%. Enrollment in elementary education increased from 2.46 million in 1983 (EC) to 7.7 million in 1995 (EC). The female/male enrollment ratio is rising, female lagging by 20 percentage points. The ratio is almost close to one in the Amhara and Tigray States and Addis Ababa. Although probably not at the rate during the Derg regime, adult education continues. Other indications include: the 600 primary schools constructed, rehabilitated and expanded with the involvement of ADB; the inauguration of the digital Educational Television and Radio Recording Studio; the launching of satellite education broadcasting in February 2004; the soon to be constructed 100 million Birr national technical and vocational college; and plans for 15 other junior technical and vocational education colleges.

The number of primary schools rose from 10,394 in 1996 to 11,780 in 2001 while that of public universities, from one to six. In regard to technical vocational and education training schools the increase was dramatic, from 6 in 1987 (EC) to 153 in 1995 (EC). Mobile education units were launched in the pastoralist areas. A number of private universities were established. Many new colleges, including the private ones, are operational. The Ethiopian Civil Service College is contributing to the civil service reform program by upgrading the capability of civil servants, with a view to improving their services to the public. Over 8,000 professionals have graduated since 1996.

The government envisages over 15 billion Birr spending (of which 47% for capital expenditure) on education during the period 2003-5. The lion’s share, 46.4%, goes to primary education. Tertiary education enrollment which increased ten-fold to 32,000 is expected to increase further to 152,000, i.e., excluding enrollment in private higher educational institutions. Ethiopia is among the first group of countries with good education policies qualifying it to benefit from the fund provided by the rich countries under the "Education for All Fast Track Initiative." The fund is meant to support the implementation of the Millennium Development Goals aimed at attaining universal primary education by 2015.

B: Health

According to the 1995 (EC) Annual Health Survey Report, in the last eight years the country’s health service coverage rose from 38% to 61%. Many hospitals, clinics and other health related facilities (1,779 primary health services in 1996-2002), including training institutions, have been established all over the country. The number of hospitals increased by 42 in the last few years. Currently over 60 primary health care institutions are under implementation with the assistance of ADB. In Oromia alone there are 20 hospitals, 112 health stations and 1,012 health posts. The on-going construction of 150 health service facilities in the same State were expected to have been completed by now. The construction of four health stations and 23 health posts were underway in Benishangul-Gumuz Sate. In Tigray, 100 new health posts will be built and 1,200 female junior health professionals trained. Mobile health units were launched in the pastoralist areas. The Ethiopia Health and Nutrition Institute (EHNI) is undertaking 70 research projects related to nutrition and health problems.

Other examples of achievements in this sector include: an increasing number of people traveling shorter distances to get health services (as a result of more health centers and more feeder roads in the rural area), completion of expansions of two health training institutes in the SNNPS, the on-going construction of four health stations and 23 health posts in Benishangul-Gumuz Sate, and the successful cross-country diseases prevention and control campaign and renderpest eradication. WHO commended the government for “efficiently implementing the cross-country disease prevention and control protocol” which it attributed to “Ethiopia's success to the decentralization.” As in any other sector, inadequacy of skilled manpower, specially in the rural area, is crucial in the health sector. There is apparently a shortage of qualified health professionals. The health extension package already operational on pilot basis envisages the training of 20,000 health professionals (30,000 female health extension agents to serve in 15,000 kebeles according to another source) in seven years.

A study on 1,500 factory workers showed that with behavioral change the rate of new HIV/AIDS incidence was reduced by two-thirds. This and other surveys and studies conducted in the past and experiences gained and the fact that infection rates are already declining in Addis Ababa would be expected to facilitate the implementation of the HIV/AIDS program, talk of the day, which now figures at the top of the country's agenda. The government has already started to make available anti-retroviral drugs (ARVs) at 700 Birr per month and free of charge to those who cannot not afford to buy. Two pharmaceutical factories which have been licensed to make ARVs from imported raw materials were reported waiting to procure funds to start production.

Over 35% of the country’s drug consumption is satisfied by local pharmaceutical factories whose numbers have increased from one to fourteen since 1994, Bethlehem Pharmaceuticals Plc., "Fawes" Pharmaceuticals and drugs for animals manufacturing facility of the National Animals Health Protection Institute, being the latest additions. A recent study has indicated the possibility of processing medicinal plants into six human and veterinary drugs. A production unit, which is likely to be established, would be the first pharmaceutical plant based on indigenous medical knowledge and raw materials, excluding vaccines. In this connection, the memorandum of understanding on co-operation in the field of traditional medicine signed between Ethiopia and China is likely to enhance the extraction of drugs from medicinal plants in the country. More and more people are having access to pharmacies. In Oromia State 62 new special pharmacies are about to be operational.

C: Agriculture

In the agricultural sector, the number of farmers with access to agricultural extension agents and some inputs has been increasing fast. It rose from 35,000 in1994/95 to 2.8 million in 1996/97. Currently, it is over 1.5 million in Oromia state and 470,000 in SNNPS. In the Amhara state it is planned to increase from four million to six million. The extension service is a crucial mean of increasing agricultural productivity.

Increasing number and quantities of new and improved varieties of seeds (cereals, legumes, cotton, fodder) from agricultural research institutions and centers through the Ethiopian Select Seed Enterprise are reaching the farmers. Some of the seeds are pest resistant, drought tolerant and/or early maturing and therefore suited to the drought prone areas. In addition to the on-going research on indigenous crops and giving attention to non-traditional edible materials, such as cactus, the country is in the process of evaluating and adopting as well as importing improved crops (75 of them) from elsewhere. Cassava, a drought resistant tuber widely used in many African countries, is, for example, being introduced in the SNNPS. Researchers are currently evaluating Nerica varieties for adoption. Dubbed “miracle crop” Nerica varieties are breeds between African and Asian rices. These coupled with improved agricultural practices being introduced by the agricultural extension agents, use of improved and innovated agricultural and irrigation tools and equipment (including water spraying equipment made from local materials and locally made water-dripping equipment), the development of appropriate water harvesting structures, correlating crops to soil types and fertility (resulting in the application of appropriate fertilizers in the required amounts), proper use of pesticides, the growing number of farmers’ training centers and use of the food aid for food-for-work programs will continue to increase yields, productivity and production. An increasing number of farmers are already benefiting by doubling and tripling their yields and cropping and harvesting up to three times a year. With more and more farmers having access to such seeds produced in an increasing number of multiplication farms and other appropriate agricultural inputs (integrated extension package) and barring adverse interruptions, especially drought, the country would be expected to steadily decrease its dependency on imported and donated food. It seems appropriate here to refer to Terracottem, a soil conditioner that renders dry lands productive (ethioindex, 02/09/04). It is quite possible that the Ministry of Agriculture is already looking its applicability to Ethiopian needs and conditions.

Attempts made by the government to settle pastoralists have begun to pay dividends. In Afar State, for instance, 500 pastoralists are expect to harvest 2,000 tonnes of cotton from 1,500 hectares of land they irrigated.

In other areas related to the sector, a lot of development work is being carried out. They include: building terraces, water harvesting structures (dams, micro-dams, reservoirs, ponds, embankments, wells and tanks) and rural roads, irrigation (272 small scale units in 1996-2002), reforestation and afforestation. A recent example of the last is the 20,000 hectares of land to be afforested in Kaffa zone, SNNS. The Wacha Community in the same zone is another. Here the cooperatives of the community have agreed to protect and benefit from the virgin forest through participatory forest management. The ADB Group is promoting the development of agriculture. The program it supports include Koga Irrigation and livestock improvement.

Now, thanks to the initiatives being taken related to the Nile River some understanding is developing among the reparian states (the Nile Basin Initiative) for the equitable and sustainable sharing of the use of the waters of the river. This would, hopefully, mean, that there will be significant change in the status quo of the utilization of the Nile Rive and no more delaying tactics on the part of Egypt. In other words, Ethiopia would be in a position to use part of its waters for large-scale irrigation in line with its 2000 water policy. Land awaiting irrigation in west of the Great Rift Valley is estimated at 2.3 million hectares, 200,000 of which the government intends to develop as part of the first phase of its long term intentions. In the past, because of the 1959 entire Nile water sharing arrangements between Egypt and the Sudan, Ethiopia was not only hindered but also denied finance and other inputs needed to undertake irrigation or hydroelectric works based on the Blue Nile River and its tributaries which contribute 85% of the waters flowing to the Nile River.

The unfair treaty which Ethiopia has nothing to do with requires that the countries which own the sources of the Nile River have to secure the consent of the downstream riparian states (Sudan and Egypt) before undertaking any development activities. For example, in 1977 the Ethiopian intention to irrigate a total of 118,000 hectares of land remained unfulfilled because of Egypt’s opposition. Audacious Egypt threatened to bomb Ethiopia when the latter announced in 1999 its intention to build a dam on the Blue Nile River. These show that the criticism that was being hurled at the government and the country for not using the vast water resources of the country (actual use reported at less than one percent) that flow to the west of the Valley was wrong. The latest example of criticism comes from development aid workers who were reported to have pointed out to unused water resource from the “absolutely enormous great lake that's about the size of Rutland” in East Africa. If the lake referred to is Lake Tana it is apparent that the criticism is not valid. The same, of course, applies to Lake Victoria, although now the countries concerned have started taking concrete steps to benefit from their waters." Current development related to the Nile Basin Initiative seem to have facilitated the possibility for the government to take action on large scale irrigation and water drainage development projects, especially around river Dedesa and lake Tana.

The huge resource in livestock and livestock products remains to be exploited optimally. A lot of activities are being undertaken towards this end. The introduction of fodder production is one of them, a step in the right direction, particularly in drought prone areas where the livestock population is at greater risk. Nineteen woredas of Tigray State are reported to be doing just that. Another is vaccination. Seventeen million dozes of some 17 different types of veterinary vaccines have been produced for use when and if needed. As noted earlier the development of leather and leather products has been given due attention, particularly in view of export potential. Up to the present, export of leather was limited to semi processed leather . One of the leather companies managing three tanneries will start exporting finished leather soon, thus setting a trend for others to follow.

With 85% of the population mostly consisting of poor farmers engaged in subsistent agriculture in the rural area, there is no way that the country will make headway without substantially uplifting the standard of living and quality of life of this segment of the population. The agriculture-led development strategy that the government is implementing appears to be the right approach. According to Madavo, World Bank Vice President, “the agriculture-led development strategy persued by the Ethiopian Government is the only alternative to bring about sustainable development and to address the root causes of the drought and poverty.” On a more recent occasion he said “the country has managed to see a significant change after the formulation and implementation of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Programme.” Others in the international community are of similar views and supportive. The Bio-farming Agricultural Research Center in Mekelle, Tigray State, is a welcome addition. It will fill some of the gaps in research and development relevant to agriculture. Its focus comprise: developing materials for water drip irrigation, bio-gas and solar energy for cooking and modern honey production.

The support being provided to farmers may not be integrated enough. It should include production, processing (only 4% of agricultural produce processed industrially) and marketing as well as minimizing overall pre- and post-harvest losses which could be as high as 40% of potential production. In view of the large magnitude of the loss, focus on substantial reduction could and should be part of the solution. For the strategy to succeed, farmers should be assured access to inputs, including finance, and adequate prices for their produce in the event of falling prices, as happened in the case of coffee. In the event of crop failure due to natural disasters (drought, flood and pest infestation), farmers should be exempted from paying for the inputs used therein. If governments in developed countries subsidize their farmers to the tune of hundreds of billions of Dollars and Euros, there is no reason why the Ethiopian government should not give partial or full debt relief to farmers in need. It is worth noting here that the EU have started to eliminate export subsidies on some agricultural products but maintain subsidy for farmers.

The government is likely to continue to do whatever it takes to encourage and support farmers to increase their productivity and production as well as stabilize prices, including, according to the Prime Minister, buying grain from surplus producing areas and distributing them in deficit areas. Developing and strengthening cooperatives is one of the routes the government is using in promoting the well being of the farmers. There are over 7,366 primary and 38 cooperative unions in the country. Actions taken recently in the development of efficient agricultural marketing and financial system include: the launching of Rural Financial Intermediaries Program (RUFIP) and the formation of cooperative banks (3,380 credit and saving associations and 78 unions.) With respect to price stabilization, cooperatives, such as the Ambo Peasants Cooperatives Union and Peasants Cooperatives Unions in SNNPS, are already in the business of purchasing grain from their members.

Measures taken and being taken by the government to promote organic agriculture, including the introduction of a national certification system, could significantly increase the export of increasingly diversified agricultural products. This is particularly significant in regard to coffee farmers who continue to suffer because of falling coffee prices. There are already about 40,000 certified organic farmers in the country.

D: Mining

Although gold and mineral waters have been exploited for decades, the mining sector in Ethiopia has not been significant compared to many African countries. Mining marble and non-artisanal salt is a relatively recent happening. According to recent information 16 companies have started mining operation of different minerals with total investment outlay of 170 million birr. The present artisanal mining of 150,000 tons of salt is expected to increase dramatically by 2005. One of the four large scale companies granted licenses or currently constructing salt extraction plants in Afar State will have an annual capacity of 250,000 tons. Together with the new comer, Lucy Salt Producing P.L.C., the country will produce over 400,000 tons of salt annually, thereby significantly reducing its dependency on imported salt. A development and production sharing agreement to exploit the Kalub and Hillala gas fields in Somalia State was recently signed with a foreign investor, Jordanian SI Tech International (SIL). The US$ 1.5 Billion project which is planned to start production within two years and a half comprises extraction of fuels, production of fertilizers and generation of electricity.

Some of the prospecting and explorations that are being carried out in the country will, sooner or latter, bear fruit. Phosphate and petroleum are among the promising ones. According to the geological map that has already been carried out in some areas there is 435 million tons of phosphate rock awaiting exploitation for fertilizer making. In regard to petroleum, the possibility of finding exploitable reserves in the western part of the country appears to be promising. MIDROC Gold Mine PLC was reported to be enhancing its exploration and prospecting activities for precious, base and rare metals in Adola-Legedembi and Metekel.

E: Transport and telecommunications

The development of the road network has been given high priority. As a result the length of roads increased from 18,000 km to 33,000 km in the last ten years. The latter is planned to expand to 45,000 km in five years time and to 100,000 km in ten years. Those who visited Ethiopia in recent years know how a smooth ride is the asphalted Addis Ababa-Moyale road. Asphalting is continuing on all the remaining highways radiating from the capital and elsewhere. Five years hence all the roads connecting the state capitals would have been asphalted.

The construction of the Azezo-Metema highway linking with the Sudanese road network has been completed and opened for traffic. It makes it possible for the country to import petroleum products from the Sudan and export cement to the Sudan, which already started, and increases the country’s options to import and export through Port Sudan. Similar measures have been and are being taken with regard to links with Barbara in Somaliland.

Those who fly to Addis Ababa will witness a new state-of-the-art airport which was inaugurated last year. Two other airports were modernized and five new ones built. These together with the hotels in the tourist areas, renovated and newly built (Abashaba Demero lodge in Bale Zone, Oromia State, for instant) are very likely to increase the influx of tourists. The 2002 38% increase to 146,600 tourists over 2001 says it all. Historical sites, cultural, wildlife and landscape (physical structure) tourist attractions, will be complemented by Paleo-tourism that will result from the completion of the paleoanthropology and archaeological museum under construction at Eluha in Afar State. Such a combination of attractions will make Ethiopia one of the unique tourist destinations in the world. For the tourist, Ethiopia will be analogous to a supermarket, one-stop shop. He/she can visit a combination of types of tourism of his/her choice. This provides the country a comparative advantage vis-a-vis practically all African countries.

Modernizing and expanding the telecommunications network has been going on. The number of telephones in the country increased about six-fold to 677,000 during the last ten years. This works out to a tele-density of about 1.0 telephones per 100 persons compared to about 0.15. Many more towns have now access to modern (digitalized) exchanges. Two years hence about 300 woreda towns will have access to telephone and data services. It is expected that access to telephone services will be extended to all kebeles in the country over a five year period. A plan is under implementation to raise the present number of mobile telephone subscribers from the present 86,000 units to 591,000 units a few years hence. By the end of this year, the country will have at its disposal a comprehensive directway broadband satellite network in operation. This will, among others, enable the Ethiopian citizens to have access to distance learning at all levels.

F: Water and Energy

In a drought prone country the conservation and proper utilization of water is crucial. For lack of adequate water policy and financial resources, restrictions imposed by the sharing arrangement between Egypt and the Sudan referred to above, etc., Ethiopia has not been able to address the need for and use of water. As a result access to water sources is limited to 24% of the population. About US $7.2 billion worth 15-year scheme coupled with the understanding being reached between the Nile riparian states is expected to raise water supply coverage from 31 percent to 70 percent over a period of 15 years. A number of projects related to water, including 8,913 rural water supply in 1996-2002, have been implemented.

Biomass fuels, mainly firewood, account for upto 96% of total energy consumption in the country. This is one of the most crucial causes of deforestation, loss of biodiversity and desertification. The government through, The Ethiopian Rural Energy Development Promotion Center, is trying to mitigate this devastating effect by, among others, introducing more efficient stoves and the use of petroleum products. Over 1.5 million fuel saving stoves have been distributed and 320,000 more are planned for distribution over a three year period.

Despite the huge potential for electric power generation from both hydro (30,000 MW) and geothermal, the country, with 28 KWh per capita, is among the lowest electric generators in the world (only 2% of its potential is tapped). The same applies to access of electricity which is limited to 14% of the population. As most of the electricity is hydro-based, electric supply becomes inadequate to meet demand (growing by 16 percent per year) during severe drought periods. The over three billion Birr that was to have been invested in 1995 (EC) will likely contribute to solving the shortage in the foreseeable future. The recent inauguration of the Gilgel Gibe Dam I and its 184 megawatt hydropower plant, Tis Abay II 450 megawatt unit about to be commissioned and the Tekeze River project (307 megawatts) under construction as well as the completion of the Gojeb and Gilgel Gibe II projects will definitely make a difference. Most recently, the government announced plan for four large-scale dams and disclosed that the international community was committed to meet a good part of the fund required. Latest drilling results in the Afar State show that there is a potential for 3.5 Megawatts of electricity from geothermal energy.

Electrification of 164 woredas is expected to raise the number of electrified woreda towns to 73% by the end of 2005. The Ethiopian Rural Energy Development and Expansion Center has funds for developing electric power in the rural area, including generation from water, solar radiation and wind. Dams and power stations under construction will, in the foreseeable future, enable the country to significantly increase its power output and export electricity. It is worth noting here that, according to the understanding reached among the three East Nile riparian states, Ethiopia is expected to develop her hydropower and export electricity to the Sudan and Egypt. During their December 2003 meeting, the three countries agreed on hydropower, irrigation and drainage projects, watershed management and capacity building programs to be implemented. Donors expressed their support at the meeting.

G: Industry

According to Afro-Consult Company there are 788 medium- and large-scale industries in Ethiopia. About 82% of these are in the private sector. The average capacity utilization is 57%. This figure, according to another source, is higher than those in many African countries. Many industries have been rehabilitated and new ones built. Examples of products manufactured by the new establishments include: edible oils, beers, Scheweps, salt, pharmaceuticals, intravenous fluids, veterinary vaccines, capsules, soaps, electric bulbs, iron and steel, organic fertilizers, cement, ceramic products, marble and assembled vehicles. A steel plant producing sheet metal, galvanized coil and materials for water pipe making is among the latest additions. The Kalub gas project in which the government has already invested a lot of money has finally attracted an investor (see section on mining). When implemented it will reduce the import of petroleum products, increase the production of electricity, and meet the nitrogenous fertilizers needs of the country. Cornerstones for a PVC tile plant and a metal works industry were laid a short while ago. The Ethio-China Acrylic Products Plc and LTCO Private Limited Company, the former 100% foreign and the latter a foreign-local joint venture, are among industrial enterprises recently incorporated. Construction of a One Billion Birr food processing factory in the SNNS is in progress. It is owned by Ileh Industrial Development Company comprising American, Italian, Saudi Arabian, Swiss and Ethiopian investors. The industrial zones in 32 towns being prepared will, hopefully, facilitate gravitating industries towards locations outside of Addis Ababa.

The industry sector in the country, which is at low level of development and therefore at its infancy, is being negatively impacted by globalization. As a result of imposed open market policy and globalization it is regrettable that a number of local industries are at a disadvantage vis-a-vis industries in other countries operating at much higher capacities as well as productivity. Many locally produced goods cannot compete with imported ones which continue to flood the market. Textiles, clothing and pharmaceuticals are among such products. It is not unlikely that bankruptcy will be the fate of some of the industrial establishments, especially those based on imported intermediates, if they do not improve productivity and the quality of their products, reduce their cost of production and enlarge their production capacities in order to benefit from economies of scale. The recent closure of five textile companies and 60 companies related to them resulting in 83,000 jobs lost in Nigeria is an indication of what could happen in Ethiopia. It is obvious that globalization is a deterrent factor on industrial development and therefore on the economic development of the country. It is, apparently, the realization of this danger, among others, that the government has been trying hard, with some success, to resist (not blindly accept) some of the pressure from the advocates, including oppositions, of free-market economy under the all-engulfing globalization.

The oppositions, either do not understand or do not care about the implications of free-trade and globalization on the overall negative impact on development of the country. It is a fact that world trade is skewed in favor of developed countries. Globalization is accelerating the disparity between them and poor nations, particularly African countries. Their agricultural products are heavily subsidized, virtually rendering similar and related products or substitutes from developing countries uncompetitive. Besides, imports of processed products from developing countries are burdened with freight rates and import duties that escalate with the degree of processing. Under such circumstances, the opposition advocates of free-trade (unfair trade) are supporting the developed countries and condemning Ethiopia to remain an exporter of raw materials whose prices are declining, coffee beans instead of processed coffee, for instance.

The oppositions blind advocacy for free trade is in stark contrast to the conviction of those in developed countries who are in a position to appreciate and concerned about the negative impact of free trade. While in Addis Ababa to attend a meeting, the EU commissioner for international trade, Pascal Lamy, said that “total liberalisation of trade doesn’t work to the benefit of developing countries.” The recent IMF admittance “that forcing developing countries to open their markets to foreign investors could increase the risk of financial crises ” and its advice on “creating strong domestic financial institutions” have proven that the Prime Minister has been right all along in resisting the imposition of some of the IMF policies. This is particularly the case with opening the financial market to foreign financial institutions and fast and whole sale privatization of public enterprises with undesirable consequences, such as retrenchment of employees. It is worth noting here that the government, to its credit, facilitated and managed to pass ownership of many public enterprises to its citizens.

Despite the above difficulties the country is trying to diversify its exports. Relatively recent additions include: sugar, tea, fish, cotton, flowers, pharmaceuticals, cement, garments and leather products. The export potential for the last two is huge. The assistance being provided to upgrade some of the 33 textile mills and garment factories by the Italian government assistance and the Leather and Leather Products Technology Institute under establishment are intended to produce products that could compete in the world market. The policy announced recently in regard to tax free import of inputs intended for the production of export goods will go a long way in increasing exports.

Most of the industrial establishments in the country are either fully or partially dependent on imported raw materials, intermediates, parts, components and supplies. Some research and development activities are being carried out to replace some imported inputs by local materials. A good example of this is the development of natural rubber plantation by the Addis Tyre Factory Share Company. The company has already begun rubber production from its pilot project suitable for making tyres.

Promotion of small and medium enterprises is among measures taken and being taken by the government. The latest such measures to be operational in the near future relate to financing schemes for small and medium enterprises. They comprise credit guarantee scheme, venture capital scheme and on-lending scheme. The venture capital scheme is meant to specifically cater for the industrial sector. Another new measure is the introduction of social security system. It is, among other things, intended to serve as saving mechanism for investment.

H: Observations

The examples of social and economic activities cited above are presented to illustrate that commendable progress has been and is being made. As the readers will appreciate, these illustrations constitute a small fraction of the accomplishments, most of them carried out in recent years. Now let us be fair, in which of the social and economic issues are progresses not being made? Programs and projects have been and are being carried out on all of them. And yet, some oppositions have the audacity to say and write that nothing has been done in the last ten years or so, easier said than done. They think making such absurd statements would condemn the government and thereby further their political agenda. They ignore the fact that they are hoodwinking and insulting the intelligence of the readers many of whom are aware of what is going on in the country. It is doubtful for the average intelligent Ethiopians with minimum exposure to conditions in Ethiopia, let alone those who closely follow developments in Ethiopia, to buy such lies unless they themselves are in the category of the biaseed who only hear what they want to hear.

Of course, a higher level of development could have been achieved had the country had access to adequate development assistance at the level of other developing countries. This may sound contradictory to statements such as ‘Ethiopia is the largest beneficiary of this and that, the biggest share of such and such assistance goes to Ethiopia, Africa's largest recipient ’ and, according to a recent Shabait.com (Eritrean government official website) Editorial, Ethiopia receives “an overwhelming amount of foreign assistance.” If total dollar magnitude is the criteria for measuring aid a country receives, then Ethiopia probably tops most African countries in some cases, excluding countries such as Egypt, which with the same size of population, receives US$2 billion a year from the United States alone.

The only way to compare aid flowing to countries is to bring the aid to a common denominator. Aid per person (US$/capita) does this. According to this measure, Ethiopia with US$20, 36% of which is for humanitarian assistance, is at the bottom of the rung. “Against All Odds,” an article on Ben’s Page, summed it up this way: “this impoverished country receives the lowest rate of development aid in the world.” On per capita basis (in Euro), the 2002-2007 EU assistance to Ethiopia, which is considered the main beneficiary of EU aid, for instance, works out to 5.7 for programmed aid and 2.3 for unforeseen occurrences. The corresponding figures for Eritrea are 25.1 and 2.5, respectively. The 2004 proposed US development aid work out, on a per capita basis, to US$ 1.12 for Ethiopia and US$ 2.13 for Eritrea. According to the World Bank “Ethiopia receives proportionally less foreign aid than other poor countries. In 2001, Ethiopia received official development assistance (ODA) amounting to 16 dollars per capita compared to about 33 dollars per capita for Burkina Faso, Rwanda, or Ghana.” Obviously, these contradict the allegations often made by Eritreans to the huge foreign aid Ethiopia receives, another Eritrean myth. Their allegations are reflections of President Isayas’ rediculing Ethiopia for being dependent on “direct economic and indirect military aid and subsidy.” His country’s dependency accounts for 29% of its GDP. Its debt as percent of GDP rose from 10 in 1994 to 200 in 2002 compared to Ethiopia’s 150 in 2002. Do these expose the dishonesty of the critics who accuse the government for not achieving extraordinary results using such meager aid? How can one in all conscience and fairness criticize the Prime Minister of “... keeping too many people tied to too little land, instead of developing other areas of the economy?” What other areas? Are there priority areas that the government with very limited resources has not tried to develop? It is obvious that the samples of developments in the political, social and economic areas cited in this and in the supplementary writing (OPPOSITIONS DURING EPRDF ETHIOPIA: POLITICS AND DEMOCRACY) show that the accusations are baseless and despicable.

Foreigners (embassies, international organizations, NGOs, the media and individuals) are the best unbiased judges under the Ethiopian circumstances, where oppositions deny every thing good that happened in the country. In general, they know much more than the oppositions. They monitor the successes and failures of the government and report to their respective governments and institutions which, as a result, the oppositions find it hard to convince foreign governments for political support. On balance, their assessments are very positive. One such judge is the Executive Secretary of ECA. He recently commended the government for its poverty reduction endeavors and its due emphasis on the fundamentals of macro-economy. Another is the United Nations Resident Coordinator for Ethiopia who stated “this country is beginning to move ahead” and has “one of the most advanced reform packages”-- resulting in “increased overseas development assistance.”

The government has finally succeeded in convincing the international donor community as a whole of the country’s long term development needs, particularly for its Poverty Reduction and Sustainable Development Strategy. The community is now more supportive, although at still much lower level compared to other developing countries. This is, among other things, manifested by substantially increasing development assistance to the country (US$1.2 billion per year pledged by international donors for three years compared with US$600 million in 1997, i.e, before economic aid was interrupted because of the Ethio-Eritrea war). According to the Resident Coordinator “this is indicative of the right policies, the right moves in the right direction.” Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, UN special adviser on Millennium Goals, stated that “Ethiopia is a well-governed country ... has a government that is development orientated, a prime minister committed to these goals ...” The International Monetary Fund (IMF) asserted that “Ethiopia’s performance during the first annual program under the PRGF [Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility] arrangement was good, and the second annual program remains on track.” The World Bank’s assessment affirmed that “Ethiopia is on the right track towards ensuring a sustainable development and the World Bank would support the country's endeavors towards this end.” Subsequently, in approving a US$ 1.5 billion financial support for Ethiopia, of which 40% in grant, the World Bank commended the government for its “comprehensive and multi-dimensional approach to alleviate poverty and accelerate economic growth.” In its latest country review the IMF confirmed "Ethiopia’s performance under the third annual PRGF-supported program has so far been commendable, despite the adverse impact on economy of the recent drought."

The European Union, on its part, had this to say: "We can see the progress the country is making and we are happy with that." Subsequently, it allocated US$ 440 million in development assistance under the Cotonou Agreement for a five year period. It expressed its intention to integrate its development aid with trade. The latest observation comes from the World Bank economist Nicolas Stern who appreciated the marked progress the country made during the last two years. He “urged the international community to double development assistance to Ethiopia ...” The African Development Bank and its affiliate, the African Development Fund, continue to assist Ethiopia through substantial loan and aid in recognition of its development efforts. During his recent visit to Ethiopia, Mr. Martti Ahtisaari, the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary General for Humanitarian Crisis in the Horn of Africa, said “The development strategies designed by the government can enable the country to address the scio-economic problems.” The "Parliamentarians in the Field" were the latest to laud the efforts of the government. They said efforts “to reduce poverty were encouraging” and “IV/AIDS intervention activities ... were commendable.” Following Ethiopia’s recent inclusion in the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) the country benefited for the first time from debt cancellation amounting to 700 million Birr.

At the bilateral level, indications of support can be illustrated by those related to Canadian and British governments’ commitments. The former included Ethiopia among the six African "countries who have made the most progress" in human rights and democracy to share in the US$100 millions African Fund reward. The latter, according to the British Ambassador to Ethiopia, will double development assistance with a possibility for further doubling in the future. The Ambassador congratulated the Ethiopian people and their government on the progress they have made so far and said “Ethiopia is on the path” to democracy. In his most recent remarks he noted “Ethiopia is on the right track of development.

During his official visit to the United Kingdom last year, the Ethiopian Prime Minister confirmed that the British government “has allocated huge sum for the execution of development endeavors in Ethiopia.” Hilary Benn, UK Secretary of State for International Development, recently revealed the amount which will increase from the present yearly US$ 34 million to US$ 100 million in 2005/06. Part of the annual assistance is for direct budgetary support, an approach already practiced by the Japanese government and the EU. This indicates the confidence of the British government on the Ethiopian government. In this connection, the desperate diatribe against the Ambassador by the oppositions is regrettable. What a joke! This evidently casts doubts on the integrity and credibility of those who deny the undeniable and scoff at foreign assistance.

Other bilateral pledges and grants include: 1.0-1.5 billion Birr Swedish grant for the period 2003-2006. The German (canceling debt of 60 million Euro) and Japanese governments were the latest to express their appreciation of the Ethiopian government efforts at development and promised more aid for Ethiopia. According to the administrator of USAID through which the greatest single assistance is provided to Ethiopia “condition on the ground was fertile to bring about rapid economic development” in the country. He said that donors were integrating their support. In his budget request (of which over US$80 million for Ethiopia) for fiscal year 2005, Ethiopia figures among the six top USAID priorities. Other donor countries which consider Ethiopia a priority country for assistance or are very supportive of development efforts in the country include: Ireland, Finland, Italy, Belgium, Norway, China, Austria and Iran. According to the Iranian Ambassador to Ethiopia, Ethiopia “is the top most priority for Iranian investors.” There are already six big Iranian companies operating in the country. NGOs are substantially increasing and focusing their efforts on development. These international and bilateral pronouncements are, by any standard, solid acknowledgments and testimonials of a success story which the oppositions hate to hear about. Contrary to the endorsement and the support given by the donor community it is strange to learn that Michael Buerk of BBC echoing the oppositions by making statements, such as the government "wants its people to remain peasants.” Thanks goes to John Vidal of The Guardian who corrected the wrong picture that the former painted about Ethiopia. According to the latter “Today it [the government] is recognised by western governments as well-prepared, stable, sensible and extremely ‘pro-poor.’”

What about aid from Ethiopians in the Diaspora? The contributions by the Ethiopian Diaspora to the development of Ethiopia compared to Eritreans for Eritrea has been practically minimal. This was, in large part, due to pressure, negative propaganda and misinformation spewed out by the oppositions some of who even appeal to donors not to give aid to Ethiopia. Shame on those who were responsible for depriving the country of the badly needed contributions by her sons and daughters which by now could have made a difference in the life of their mothers, fathers, sisters and brothers who live in crippling poverty, lacking in purchasing power. The US $65 Million cardiac treatment center planned by the Ethiopian North American Health Professionals Association and a similar center by an Ethiopian in Sweden are exemplars of what Ethiopians in the Diaspora can and should do for their homeland. It is heartening to learn that Ethiopian professionals in USA in a video conference (12/21/03) with their compatriots in Ethiopia pledged assistance in the health sector. The National United Nations Volunteer (NUNV) Scheme which is already operational will undoubtedly facilitate the contribution of individuals in the Diaspora to national development.

The Eritrean government, some Eritreans and even some Ethiopian oppositions claim that Ethiopia has been diverting development aid to purchase arms during the Ethio-Eritrean war. Aid is given for a specific purpose with a concrete end result. The donor monitors implementation and evaluates the end result. Further assistance is contingent on past performance. The donor community continues it assistance at higher level because it is convinced that its aid in the past has been properly utilized. If this is the case, how does one explain aid has been diverted to purchase arms? Where did the money for implementing aid projects and programs come from? It is obvious that the same money could have not been used for both, development and purchase of arms.

Undertaking development activities in a poor country like Ethiopia with scarce resources and evolving administrative system is difficult, time consuming and frustrating. According to Oxfam, development needs to address the “underlying causes of poverty in the country, lack of rural investment, land pressure, the debt burden, and unfair terms of trade.” Most of those who blindly criticize the government have no an inkling of what it takes to run a government while at the same time undertaking development activities, especially in one of the poorest countries with a government system that has been evolving from a feudal one. Some of those who have not been following closely developments in Ethiopia are naive and misinformed by those who know otherwise. They would be advised to remember the Amharic proverb ‘siyayut yamr siyizut yadenagr.’ Out there in the real world things are very different from what the oppositions try to bamboozle us to understand and believe.

It is a fact that the majority of the Ethiopian people, of most countries for that matter, compared to the government, have relatively limited knowledge about the political, social and economic conditions of their country. Their view is analogous to that of a low flying bird whose vision is limited to a tiny area. In contrast, the vision of the government is broad, equivalent to a bird’s eye view at a much higher altitude. In other words, a government makes decisions and plans and takes actions after taking account of many positive and negative factors on the ground and the likely consequences, factors that may not be known or are difficult to comprehend by the majority. The altitude navigated by the oppositions is between those of the majority and the government but seems skewed to the former. Their awareness of the country’s conditions and what needs to be done are much lower than those of the government which are based on facts on the ground, on studies, surveys, reports, programs, projects, experience, etc. Another analogy is equating oppositions to low level management and government leadership to CEOs in a company hierarchy. In short, the public should not be gullible and should question the validity of assertions, claims, criticisms, etc., uttered by the oppositions.

Planning and implementing policies, strategies, plans, programs, projects, and organizational and physical infrastructures, and research and development (new varieties of crops, etc.) is a continuous process. The year to year increase of cumulative effect of these is likely to result in accelerating the pace of development over time. This expectation could, of course, be highjacked if peace will not prevail, as happened during the Ethio-Eritrean war, if oppositions continue to distract and sabotage government efforts and activities, and if the country will experience devastating droughts. Had not these devastating happenings occurred in the last few years the lot of the Ethiopian people would have been better by now. It should be noted here that the government was concentrating its efforts on development, drastically cutting its defense spending to substantially augment development. This was the reason why the country was not prepared to fight a war when Eritrean forces invaded Ethiopian administered territories. By the way, some of the oppositions characterize defending the territorial integrity of Ethiopia from the Eritrean invasion as ‘needless war.’

J: Conclusions

What we should all be clear about is that Ethiopia is a developing country, and a least developed and at the bottom of the rung, at that. This being the case, it should have been apparent to the oppositions that there are overwhelming diverse and complex problems hindering progress in the political, social and economic sectors. As shown in this writing, most of the criticisms leveled at the government by the oppositions are lies, fabricated, exaggerated, etc. These criticisms emanate from a limited number of vociferous persons who, strangely enough find time, besides working to earn their living, to churn out a flood of articles. How do they do that? Simple, most of them do not conduct research; they sit down and cook articles, not supported by facts but based on their biases, fabrications and repeated ad infinitum boring allegations. What they seem not to realize is the fact that the country and the system of governance have reached a point of no return. They have made themselves irrelevant and lost credibility and respectability.

The oppositions blame the government for the rampant poverty in the country. They do not seem to reason or do not want to acknowledge why poverty continues and would even worsen before it gets better. According to the US government's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS) the population affected by drought will progressively increase from 13.2 million now to 17.3 million by 2007. This, the unsustainably high rate of population growth and pandemic HIV/AIDS are among the culprits for the continuing sorry state of affairs in the country. These same factors could, unfortunately, minimize the gains expected to be made in development from reducing poverty by half in 2015 as envisaged in the MDGs.

The surveys, studies, plans, programs and projects undertaken and experience gained in planning and execution of programs and projects in the last decade are likely to lead to accelerated progress in this decade. Programs and projects implemented and under implementation include: making education and health services available to more and more citizens, upgrading and expanding the road and telecommunications infrastructures, diversifying export products and port outlets, generating electricity for export, importing petroleum products from and exporting cement to the Sudan and exploiting Kalub gas. In drought related activities, progress seems to be moving fast. In the past few months many projects on irrigation, water harvesting and voluntary resettlement, became operational and more were reported under implementation and planning. At such rates, the devastating effect of drought is likely to lessen with time.

“Donor fatigue” is plaguing the international community. The volume of aid for developing countries has been decreasing in the 1990s. Total ODA/OA net flow to developing Africa decreased from US$16.5 in1990 to US$11.6 billion in 1999. Although it increased steadily from US$16.4 billion in 2000 to US$18.6 billion in 2002, it nevertheless fell from US$30 to US$20 on per capita basis in the last decade. It is grossly inadequate to meet the needs of the MDGs. The wars and their consequences in Iraq and Afghanistan are likely to affect aid flow to Africa. Fortunately, the Ethiopian government has succeeded in establishing goodwill and commitment on the part of the international community toward the development of the country -- which, by the way, is derided by the oppositions.

The news that the United States is revising USAID's strategy in regard to Ethiopia, focusing on “sustainable development rather than humanitarian assistance,” is most welcomed. This is significant in light of the expectation that, in 2004, many African countries will receive United States’ aid significantly lower than those in 2003. Under the circumstances, it is up to the government and the people to optimally make use of the American and other donors goodwill and support. Ethiopia would be dooming itself if it misses to make the best out of this relatively favorable situation. Continuation of the belligerency of the oppositions could darken the ray of hope at the end of the tunnel. The people will hold the oppositions responsible for contributing to the squandering of this one-time and likely last opportunity, which could happen if they continue to pursue what they have been and are doing. If they really love Ethiopia, as they often confess, then it is time to show that they do so by being genuine oppositions and facilitating instead of obstructing its stability and development.

Those well-off Ethiopians who argue that Ethiopia, with overwhelming multitude of problems and very limited resources, can do without foreign aid are out of their minds. It is inconceivable that the Asian Tigers would have made it to where they are now if it had not been for the massive aid and very favorable world economic conditions prevailing at the time. Yes, the dependency syndrome should be replaced by self-reliance. This, however, cannot be done overnight for obvious reasons. It needs, within a reasonable time frame, changing the attitude of the people and the provision of well managed essential inputs: know-how, technology, material and financial. The capacity building program and focus on development with long-term effects that the government is implementing is aimed at enhancing the capability and capacity of the Ethiopians in development leading to self-reliance, thus reversing the dependency syndrome. It is criminal to deny the badly needed foreign aid to improve the standard of living of the extremely vulnerable poor people, in the name of self-reliance and in defiance to UN sanctions, if ever imposed. It is virtually impossible -- under the current intolerable, highly unfavorable and unfairly hyper-competitive world economic order -- to make adequate and fast progress in improving their standard of living through self-reliance alone. It is outrageous, hypocritical, irresponsible and lacking in compassion.

The cumulative effort of past and continuing planning and programming, physical infrastructure and institution building, health and educational development, etc. and the accumulated experience thereof have reached the pre-condition stage for take-off. With peace reigning coupled with the relatively and unusually high level support by development partners, the take-off stage should and could be within reach. It is incumbent on all and every well-meaning Ethiopians to facilitate this to happen. This could be done by supporting the development efforts of the government by those in position to do so and avoiding doing things that could jeopardize development by those not in a position to contribute materially or professionally. Let us give our country and the impoverished and suffering people a chance for peace and to get out of the quagmire they are in. For heaven’s sake, let us not squander this, likely, one-tme opportunity.

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N.B: As the reader will have noticed, no bibliography has been included for the simple reason that there are too many references. Those who have been surfing the Ethiopian websites would recognize that most of the data and information were extracted from writings that appeared therein.