SOME OPPOSITONS’ ENDLESS HOODWINKING,
DENIALS AND LYING
By Mathza
Part II: Further Comments on Development and Inflation
Economic Development
To the three MPs and the parties they represent, admitting that there has been significant social and economic development in the country, they think, is against their interest. Their strategy is to discredit the government using any means, including lying to, misinforming and misdirecting the people. They, apparently, think that such denial, deception and misinformation will help them bring down the government. At this point, I would like to refer readers to my article PARLAMENTARIAN DENIES ANY DEVELOPMENT IN ETHIOPIA (http://aigaforum.com/mathza050807.htm). The MP in question is Mr. Bulcha. The article which provides more detail is in response to his denial that he could not observe development in his constituency and elsewhere in the country.
Some of the opposition MPs rejected the PM’s assertion that the economy was strong. Under African conditions, a sustained rate of growth of 7% is considered necessary for a country like Ethiopia to come out of the predicament it is in. Obviously, with double digit growth the Ethiopian economy qualifies to be characterized as strong. According to respondents to Fortune’s questionnaires “close to 60pc - were persuaded by his [PM’s] argument that the economy is strong enough to bear the cold and survive the inflationary storm.” Such a high rate of approval indicates the MPs, who supposedly should know better, are way behind the public. They are, apparently, working against the interest of their constituents.
Now, it is bizarre to hear ad infinitum the cliché “there is no development” when the MPs themselves are in the middle of development. They see development in all directions and sectors and yet they claim they do not. Who is fooling whom? Let us leave the urban area where development is glaringly obvious, even to those who purposely turn blind eyes so that they can lie. In the rural areas the standard of living of farmers is significantly improving by the day. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of households are becoming self sufficient and beyond every year. It will, of course, take some time before the majority of them join the club of successful farmers. As the Chinese say some would have to be rich before all become rich. The government does not have all the required inputs (resources, funds, hard currency, skilled manpower and appropriate technologies) to enable all rural people to join the club. It does not have genuine opposition parties which criticize it when justified and support it when what it does is in the interest of the people and country. Instead they sabotage its activities, support its enemies and beg the development partners to deny it assistance. It does not have the magic wand that could make development happen overnight. From what they say and do oppositions give the impression that they have a magic solution. All Ethiopians, including the PM, I am sure, would wholeheartedly accept the leadership of the MPs if they have the magic wand.
The awards that are given to farmers every year are clear indicators of development in rural Ethiopia. From those awards the average Ethiopian knows something good is happening in the country. Farmers who were destitute a few years ago are now not only self sufficient and market-oriented but a few of them have become millionaires. The case of two farmers, one from Amhara region and one from SNNP region who lost money to rats and a cow, respectively, is an indication of wealth being accumulated by ordinary farmers never done during the previous regimes. The former lost 35,000 Br of 114,000 Br and the latter, 4,800 Br of 9,800 Br.
The model farmers, the most successful among the farmers, have established the unstoppable trend and are proving to their neighbors they too can do it. Each year each model farmer will be emulated by others thereby significantly increasing the number of model and other successful farmers to encompass more and more farmers. The new comers will duplicate the success of such farmers by adopting new working attitudes, new technologies and appropriate inputs to increase their productivity and production. This is the stark reality, not the gloomy picture painted by the conscienceless MPs and their likes. They know this is happening but cannot swallow it!
I can go on and on reviewing developments in various sectors citing statistics. Suffice it to just mention that commendable success has been achieved in education, health, infrastructure and industry in addition agriculture implied in the improving standard of living of the farmers referred to above. The people, especially the rural people comprising 85% of the population, know this. To the nay sayers the longer you continue your denials the more you expose yourselves and the more the people distance you, as happened during the recent elections.
Inflation
Now, let us move on to inflation. Some of the opposition parties accused the government for the current high inflation. They went to the extent of claiming that the cause for inflation was due to more internal than external factors and government failure. They further said: reducing inflation through kebeles is a simplistic solution; the government should not monitor or control foodstuff traders; and the government should not have a hand in the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange which recently started operation. In other words, the government should not interfere in the market mechanism but should strictly apply Western standards, requirements, prescriptions, etc. in regard to the so-called free market economy. This approach fails to take into account the real situation in developing countries requiring government intervention when necessary.
The current inflation is due to a combination of internal and external factors, not mostly internal as the opposition MPs would have us believe. Supply-demand imbalance which, by the way, is indicative of both high population growth and income increases, particularly in rural households, coupled with farmers’ access to market information, is the major cause of internal inflation. It is a manifestation of fast development and rising income leading to higher per capita consumption and therefore higher demand pushing prices up. More and more farmers who may have been eating once or twice a day on meager diets are likely having three quality meals a day. They are surely buying industrial goods which they had not been able to do in the past. The increase of import of sugar from 50,000 tonnes last year to 150,000 tonnes to supplement this year’s demand is a clear example of this. It is apparent that incessant and sustained increase in productivity and production of foodstuffs is the main solution to internally caused inflation. This is what is exactly happening based on planned and actual production reported by most regions. Barring drought and global recession, the rising trend in production will, in the not distant future, free the country from food dependency on external aid.
The whole world is under the grip of inflation and food crisis. World Food Program (WFP) Director Josette Shearan corroborated these facts. She said that no country has been immune from the inflationary pressures on the most vulnerable people. According to WFP cost of cereals in the world doubled between last year and this year. As per FAO “Food costs worldwide spiked 23 percent from 2006 to 2007. Grains went up 42 percent, oils 50 percent and dairy 80 percent.” According to Reuters/World Bank world prices of rice increased by around 75% within two months and those of wheat by 120% over the past year. Wheat bread price per pound in U.S.—where wheat farmers are highly subsidized—increased from $0.98 in 2000 to $1.81 in 2008. In neighboring Kenya inflation stands at 21%. The Ethiopian government should inform its citizens the global nature of the inflation they are, unfortunately, experiencing. The MPs and their likes are unashamedly using inflation to swindle the innocent people with a view to salvaging the support they lost.
Most African countries, particularly oil importing countries, are the hardest hit. For their own agenda the MPs try to minimize the devastating role of imported inflation. They give the people the impression that Ethiopians alone are the victims of inflation. They do not want the people to know the extent of devastation caused by the continuing soaring price of oil. The consequences of rising oil price are many and overwhelming. First, transport cost shoots up making all transported items more expensive. Second, cost of industrial and agricultural production escalates. Besides, instead of passing on the actual cost increases to the consumers there is always the tendency on the part of transporters, producers, wholesalers and retailers of exaggerating the increases, i.e., unduly fattening their margins. Third, for the same reasons costs of imported products spiral. Thousands of products, such as fertilizers, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, plastics and synthetic fibers are made from oil. It is unfortunate that the prices of fertilizers, pesticides, plastic pipes and sheets have been spiraling when Ethiopian farmers have come to appreciate their use. Fertilizer procurement cost to farmers this year is reported to have doubled compared to last year.
Realizing the devastating consequences of continuing to import oil in increasing quantities and the increasingly skyrocketing prices, the government is encouraging and facilitating local production of biofuels: ethanol and biodiesel from castor seeds and Jatropha. Some projects are already under development and construction. Coal exploitation will, according to Derba East Africa Coal Mining Company, hopefully follow within the foreseeable future. Until such and similar projects that could reduce oil import dependency come to fruition the country will continue to suffer and its promising economic and social development could be negatively impacted.
In regard to the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange, why object to government initiative in establishing and operating it when the private sector is not ready? Why should the country deprive itself from the benefits of the exchange, especially in stabilizing the supply and prices of foodstuffs, for lack of capability and action on the part of the private sector? In any case there is always the possibility for its eventual privatization as is being done with government owned companies. One thing that the MPs should understand, and understand very well, is there is no such thing as a purely free economy. Within the free market economy there comes a time when any government that cares for its citizens has to protect the public from monopolists, exploiters and saboteurs. It should not allow greedy businesspersons, particularly those dealing with basic necessities, to manipulate prices at their whims and at the expense of the consumer. The recent closures of 12 cement and 10 pepper retail shops will hopefully send the message that other retailers as well as the wholesalers will face similar consequences when they cross the red line.
We all know that developed countries which impose market economy system on developing countries undermine it themselves, usually in the form of high subsidy, in the interest of both farmers and consumers. It is naïve to expect the Ethiopian government to close its eyes and not intervene when required. The MPs would surely and vehemently accuse the government if it did not do so—in other words, damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Let us not forget that the so-called free market system can and is being used to sabotage the effort of the government. How else can one explain the over night phenomenal price increase of salt, a local resource readily available in quantities needed, by 800% to 1,300%? Considering the role of salt in the food people eat, this was probably meant to incite an uprising leading to change of government. The culprits and their political associates have, apparently, read or heard of food riots in African countries and elsewhere in the world. They are eager to do the same but with hidden agenda of turning the demonstrations into riots (as was planned and done during aftermath of the 2005 election) to achieve their goal of snatching power.
In some of my past articles I have been raising the question of sabotage within the bureaucracy the current government inherited from the feudal and Derg regimes as a double edge sword (killing two birds with one stone): self enrichment and smearing the good image and work of the government. Besides, has not sabotage played a significant role in EPRDF losing in the 2005 election in Addis Ababa? It is clear that what the opposition MPs are saying is do not interfere with our agents of sabotage, corruption, instability and disorder. Have we not heard them defending corrupt government officials (their associates) when the latter were brought to court? I recommend to readers who may have not read three excellent recent articles by Abdel, Adal Isaw and Getachew covering sabotage, corruption, greed, development, governance, etc., very relevant to the current debates. ***
Why so much hatred on the PM?
The problem with the MPs and their likes is they are intimidated and frustrated by the all rounded intellectual capacity and capability of the PM (Remember “mels bekisu”). They resent the fact that he obtained his degrees with great distinctions while administering a country with myriads and complex problems, including those caused by the oppositions themselves (an achievement with probably no precedent in the world). They are jealous of him, hate him and want to revenge him so much for this and the fact that, unlike them, he successfully fought in the field against the Derg and instituted a practical and appropriate federal system which saved the country from disintegration. Worse still for some of them, they lost power, privileges and property ownership acquired through imperial handouts, devious means and corruption.
The so-called highly educated, particularly those whose names are preceded by a ‘PhD’ find it difficult to measure up to him. Whatever irrational things they say and foolish steps they take are indications of inferiority complex and frustrations. In their relentless character assassinations, there are no stones they have not turned to blemish his name, condemn every thing he says and does, deny all the progress made under him, belittle his outstanding performance at the international level, and call him a stooge because of his outstanding ability to obtain international assistance based on convincing policies, plans, programs and strategies. And recently they boycotted the elections simply because they, as was evident, realized that the 2005 protest vote against EPRDF was not going to repeat. They were scared, and rightly so, that they would utterly fail. This was exactly what happened. There was no reason for history to repeat itself.
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*** http://aigaforum.com/Greedy.htm,
http://aigaforum.com/Adal_reply_to_NES.htm,
http://aigaforum.com/The_Developmental_State_vs_Governance.htm