My Three Stage Peace Plan:
Compensation , Dialogue and then Demarcation

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Woldu Sebagadis
06/07/06)

A few months ago, the Ethiopia-Eritrea Compensation Commission declared that "The Evidence showed that, at about 5:30 a.m. on May 12, 1998, Eritrean armed forces, comprised of at least two brigades of regular soldiers, supported by tanks and artillery, attacked the town of Badme and several other border areas in Ethiopia’s Tahtay Adiabo Wereda, as well as at least two places in its neighboring Laelay Adiabo Wereda." Thus, clearly Eritrea is the aggressor nation and is responsible for starting the 1998 war. In its previous decision, the same Commission decided that Eritrea was responsible for many war atrocities including the bombing of civilian targets in general and the killings at Ayder Elementary School in Mekelle in particular. If one converts theses causalities to dollars, such war reparations could amount to billions of dollars Eritrea does not have. In addition, now that Eritrea has been found as the aggressor nation, Issayas Afeworki in particular and the Shaebia leadership in general are responsible for war crimes and atrocities against innocent Ethiopian citizens and therefore the Ethiopian government has the duty to charge these individuals for war crimes and for starting the war. It is puzzling to see that all the key Ethiopian officials are very silent and at times dismissive of the crimes of Shaebia on the Ethiopian people.

The Ethiopian government is committing a serious blunder if it allows the border demarcation to commence before war reparations are paid by the Eritrean Government. It is important that we learn a few lessons from the history of war reparations and there are many. In this article, I will only briefly mention two such reparations--one reparations treaty is pretty recent and the other one is about 135 years old. Perhaps one of the most successful cases of war reparations in history is the 1871 Treaty of Frankfurt between France and Germany. According to conditions of this treaty, France was obliged to pay a war indemnity of 5 Billion francs in 5 years. German troops remained in parts of France until the last installment of the indemnity was paid off in September 1873, before the obliged date.

The second and the more recent war reparations treaty is that of the 1991 first Gulf War. After the first Gulf War, Iraq accepted UN Security Council Resolution 687, which declared Iraq's financial liability to damage caused in its invasion of Kuwait. The United Nations Compensation Commission was established and US$350 billion in claims were filed by governments, corporations and individuals. A decade later Saddam and his regime were overthrown. The lesson here is that to be responsible for the invasion of another sovereign country and to be labeled as an aggressor country comes with a big price and enormous financial and personal liability including regime change and charges of war crimes. Thus, the Ethiopian government must remind all parties concerned that aggression should not be rewarded and that war reparations, like demarcation, is an integral component of the Algiers agreement and that war reparations and war crime proceedings must be completed before dialogue and demarcation. If demarcation takes place before war reparations are paid, Ethiopia will never get a single cent from Eritrea simply because Eritrea is poor and bankrupt.

Unfortunately, before Ethiopia is properly compensated, the EPRDF government, according to some news agencies, has now accepted the Ethiopian and Eritrean Boarder Commission’s (EEBC) 2002 tribunal ruling “without reservations” and plans to commence the demarcation and delimitation of the Ethiopian and Eritrean boarder soon. If indeed these reports are true, then this too is another strategic error the Ethiopian government is committing. The previous strategic errors with regard to Eritrea include invoking of the already dead and buried treaties of the 1900s and the Prime Minister’s hasty decision to prematurely stop the war, a decision not supported by many Ethiopians (including the military and his own Chief of Staff at that time), and sign the so called Algiers’ Agreement--an agreement opposed by almost all Ethiopians. It is my prediction that these errors will hound high level government officials of EPRDF for years to come, because one day they will have to account for their actions and responsibilities with respect to the conduct and execution of the 1998-2000 Ethiopia-Eritrea war and the subsequent presentation of Ethiopia’s case at the Hague. Before and during Ethiopia’s case was presented to the 5 judges at the Hague, Ethiopian officials continue to declare Tsorona, Forto, Assab, etc. are Eritrean territories, to the dismay of the Ethiopian people. As the EEBC rulings indicate even the 5 judges were themselves surprised by the generosity of EPRDF officials to Eritrea.

Today, Mengisu’s henchmen are rotting in prison because they are accountable for the thousands that perished in the era of Red Terror--a strategic error. During that time, Derg officials were blinded by their arrogance and short sightedness that they never ever thought that one day they will be accountable for their heinous crimes. Tomorrow, EPRDF officials will face the same fate if they don’t quickly learn from their past mistakes and listen to the people of Ethiopia and stand for the country’s national interest in general and its sovereignty in particular. Like Mengistu Haile Mariam and Kassa Kebede a few EPRDF members may be able to escape Ethiopia, but a vast majority of EPRDF members who may have conspired with Shaebia to secede Ethiopian land and sea coast will have their day in court one day. I just find it difficult to foresee how EPRDF officials plan to live and retire in Ethiopia if they surrender a segment of the Ethiopian population to Eritrea against its wishes and continue to be kinder and gentler to Shaebia. After all, the damage and destruction caused by Shaebia in the last 45 years is more serious, more brutal and more permanent than the damage caused by Fascist Italy, Derg or Kinijit extremists combined. A few weeks ago, the Associated Press reported that “Eight bombs exploded in Ethiopia's capital, killing three people and wounding 42.” The Addis Ababa Police and the Ethiopian Government know the fact that Eritrea is training and supplying these terrorists and yet PM Meles’s government continues to be gentler and kinder to Shaebia in all its dealings including the Hague and London talks. Knowing the Ethiopian psyche, this is not something they will ever forget or forgive.

As to the Martch, 2006 statement by the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, claiming the recent London meetings were consistent with the Prime Minister’s Five Point Peace Proposal, is simply a laughable statement based on convoluted logic and lacks credibility. After all, it is important to recall that the same Ministry and Minister, after the 2002 EEBC ruling, with great fan-fare and irrational exuberance had declared to the world that “…all disputed areas have been given to Ethiopia.” What is ironic about this statement is the fact that the Honorable Minister was elected to represent the interest of the people of Agame district, a district where all the Irob people reside. Did he ever consulted his constituency in Irob how they feel about the EEBC rulings before his television and radio declarations? May be he would have never uttered the phrase “..all disputed areas have been given to Ethiopia” if he had the wisdom and sophistication to surround himself with educated people who can read maps and interpret global positioning systems.

Equating the presence of an American technical advisor to EEBC to the Five Point Peace Plan is simply a stretch at best. Section 14 (A) of the Demarcation Directive states that “The Commission has no authority to vary the boundary line. If it runs through and divides a town or village, the line may be varied only on the basis of an express request agreed between and made by both parties.” Thus, this latest statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is nothing but a machination to deceive and hoodwink the people of Ethiopia in general and the people of Tigray in particular. And that is a big mistake with enormous ramifications! Unfortunately, this sort of shenanigans happens in the absence of transparency and accountability.

At this point, to expect Eritrea will agree with any Ethiopian request to vary the boundary line is simply naïve. The Eritrean government fully understands that Bademe is a barren land with little economic value, but it is also keenly aware of the fact that the loss of Bademe or northern Irob can bring the end of the EPRDF government and possibly the end of the Ethiopian State—and that is the ultimate desire and yearning of Shaebia. The thuggish government of Eritrea’s ultimate goal is very simple—it is to undermine the unity, and the political stability of Ethiopia so that they can easily plunder it. This is because without Ethiopia and as the evidence from the last 8 years clearly show, Eritrea has become an economic basket case and a prison state. As many economists predicted and as the data clearly show the Eritrean economy is in utter shambles. And yet, Issays continues to harbor the destruction and annihilation of the Ethiopian State by supporting and harboring all sorts of traitors, terrorists and evil doers. As stated in a recent AIGA commentary, “how long is the Tyrant in Asmera going to be tolerated with his full time job of disrupting the peace in Ethiopia?” And as a corollary, when is the Ethiopian government and particularly the Prime Minister and his most trusted advisors and mentors, going to listen to the people of Ethiopia, especially the Irob, the Kunama and the Afar people ?

It is a fundamental fact that, the position of a great majority of the rank and file EPRDF members on the issue of Eritrea is consistent with that of the rest of Ethiopia. Interestingly enough, the oppositions’ stated position on Eritrea and the coastline is also consistent with a vast majority of Ethiopia. The Prime Minister is wrong to insist that Ethiopian politicians must drop their belief that their nation's real border is still the Red Sea. Ethiopia is on the verge of war with Eritrea and once again the Prime Minister continues to dictate and lecture to the Ethiopian people that the Red Sea is not theirs. This is because the Prime Minister and a very few members of EPRDF appear to have adopted the version of Ethiopian history as written and scripted by Shaebia--a fabricated history that in a bizarre and peculiar fashion claims that Ethiopia is a colonial power when in fact Ethiopia is an innocent victim of European, Arab, and Ottoman Turkish colonizers. Even foreigners including President Jimmy Carter and Mr. Herman Cohen, the head of the Africa Desk at the State Department in the early 1990s, pleaded with Mr. Zenawi not to make Ethiopia a land-locked country, unfortunately, the PM summarily dismissed all of them.

I just hope the very few but key EPRDF officials, who, by the way are intelligent but appear to have a totally blind spot when it comes to Eritrea and Eritreans, will have the wisdom to listen to their own population and refrain from adopting Shaebia’s fabricated history of Ethiopia and Eritrea. Thus, at this time the only peaceful solution to the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict is simply a three peace plan: compensation, dialogue, and then demarcation. On the other hand if the belligerent and thuggish government of Isaya Afeworki decides to initiate war, and there is a good possibility he may, then Ethiopia, this time, should not only fight to protect Bademe and Irobe but also to return the coast line. If indeed Eritrea starts the war, this creates a totally new circumstance, a circumstance that gives Ethiopia an exit strategy to extricate itself from all previous treaties including the Algiers’ treaty and the 2002 EEBC rulings.

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