Peace in the Horn and Washington’s Role

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Zeru Hagos
(Aigaforum, 01/09/05)

The tripartite summit of Sudan, Ethiopia and Yemen was conceived to tackle economic and security issues in the region. Although the region has been mired in civil strife it is only since the 9/11 incident it has gained prominence in the western world. The west is keen not to allow future terrorist establish a base in the region. Sudan, the host of the recent tripartite summit, has been mired in a never ending civil strife. Ethiopia with its nagging problem with its one time province Eritrea is engaged with a self inflicted diplomatic paralysis where it is being pressured to accept the Algiers Agreement. On the other hand Yemen has been swimming in hot water for over a decade brought about by its support to Saddam Hussein and its on going border issue with the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is such problem the summit was created to solve. The west interest obviously lies in denying future terrorist a base there since terrorist are known to flourish in such environment.

On security matters the axis primary concern has been the erratic president of independent Eritrea. All three countries were invaded by tiny Eritrea. President Isaias Afeworki ordered his impoverished country army to invade Yemen, Ethiopia and Sudan and has managed to cause heavy destruction in each country. He has since make peace with Yemen and has recently lobbied the Yemeni president to help him make peace with Sudan and Ethiopia. The jury is still out if this effort will yield a positive outcome but reading the recent announcement by the US general that heads the joint task force in the horn region, the tripartite axis may have another problem to tackle. The US for what ever reason has declared the horn region as fertile for terrorist activity even though it has worked for over two years to lay the ground to deny terrorist from using the region as a base. This must be news to those countries in the immediate vicinity to say the least.

Ethiopia has been waging a war against foreign based terrorist on its southern border and with much success. In fact the US has been helping in this front by establishing a forward base inside Ethiopia. With the coming of a united Somalia government one would think the area is becoming less fertile to terrorist but the US general thinks not!

The Sudan has also been trying to make peace with its southern opposition and has recently signed the long awaited peace. The only issue that remains is the Darfur issue which is a relatively new incident and unlikely to be a source for future terrorism.

The plausible reason for the US general remark may be Eritrea! Recent economic indicators in impoverished Eritrea show a worsening situation. Eritrea is in dire need of hard currency and no longer distributes gasoline to civilians. Its main source of hard currency, Diaspora Eritreans, is less generous in recent years. Such stark realities may have caused the US anti terror strategist in Washington to warn the White House that the next terrorist haven could be the Horn of Africa. The state department recently sent its diplomat to Asmara to make head ways in the strained relationship and the White House has ordered food aid to be sent to Eritrea. Apparently US hawkish officials may have concluded President Isaias may be a better ally to implement US Policy in the horn than Meles Zenawi. Apparently the US is not happy with Meles Zenawi for not playing his role in the Darfur crisis. While President Afeworki has not missed a moment from interfering in the internal affairs of Sudan, Meles Zenawi has for all practical purpose abstained to interfere in the Sudanese crises.

Realizing this prime minister of Ethiopia has come up with a new peace initiative to resolve the border trouble with Eritrea in the hope of appeasing the US. Meles through the axis is trying also to assert control of the security in the region there by reducing Washington’s anxiety. He has also summoned Eritrean opposition and advised them to form a joint front and become more accountable to their countries worry.

The US worries may be valid or just a smoke screen for something else. Regardless the US would be well advice not to design a policy that will destabilize the region. If the US is worried by the instability in Eritrea as reasoned above, instability in Ethiopia would be a far larger danger. Ethiopia has been a close ally and playing a positive role in the region. The US must design a policy where Ethiopia with its huge army and large population is the central pillar for fighting terrorism in the horn region. The recent activity by US generals shuttling to and from Asmara is not helping the axis effort nor is it helping the new Ethiopian peace plan. President Isaias is unpredictable person and may use such gesture as a green light to destabilize the region. The red sea region will be less peaceful with millions of angry Ethiopians and an Ethiopian government that is weakened. The current US policy unfolding for this region obviously has the capacity to undo the current relative peace that is contrary to what the task force is trying to achieve.

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